Hurricane Polo Hits Category 5 off Mexico but Is Forecast to Stay Offshore
Mexico · Weather
Key Facts
- —What happened Polo reached Category 5 at 6 a.m. Mexico City time on 22 September 2026; by 9 a.m. winds neared 270 km/h.
- —Where it is At 9 a.m. Mexico City time it lay about 335 kilometres south of Zihuatanejo, drifting north at 4 km/h.
- —Will it hit land The US National Hurricane Center and Mexico’s weather service both expect the centre to stay offshore.
- —The catch Rain of up to 200 millimetres could bring life-threatening floods and mudslides to Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday.
- —For Puerto Vallarta The city is on blue alert, the lowest level, and lies outside the tropical storm warning and watch areas.
- —For Los Cabos Forecasters give Cabo San Lucas a 13% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by early Sunday 27 September.
The storm climbed from tropical storm to the top of the hurricane scale in about a day and a half. Forecasters expect its centre to stay at sea, but its rain and surf will reach the coast.
Hurricane Polo became a Category 5 storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast on Tuesday 22 September 2026, the top of the hurricane scale. Forecasters in Miami and Mexico City expect its centre to stay at sea.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) put sustained winds near 270 km/h in advisory number 8. It was issued at 9 a.m. Mexico City time (15:00 UTC).
At that point the centre lay about 335 kilometres south of Zihuatanejo, a resort town in Guerrero state. Polo was barely moving, drifting north at 4 km/h, with a central pressure of 920 millibars.
A storm that grew in a day
Polo formed as Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on Sunday 20 September and became a tropical storm that night. By 9 a.m. on Monday its winds had reached 100 km/h.
It became a hurricane by 3 p.m. that afternoon and reached Category 4 around midnight. The NHC declared Category 5 at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, all times Mexico City time.
That is a gain of about 170 km/h in 24 hours. The NHC’s forecast discussion described “a spectacular presentation on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery”, with a small, well-defined eye.
Despite its strength, Hurricane Polo is compact. Hurricane-force winds reach only about 55 kilometres from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds about 150 kilometres.
Will Polo make landfall
The NHC says the core will stay near southwestern Mexico for several days, “although forecast to remain offshore”. It expects Polo to turn northwest and run roughly parallel to the coast.
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN), part of the national water agency Conagua, also rules out a landfall by the centre. Imagen Radio reported that view after interviewing SMN meteorologist Javier Rodríguez on Tuesday morning.
Even offshore, the NHC says “some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely” at the closest approach. How close Polo will come remains uncertain, it adds.
President Claudia Sheinbaum gave the same outlook on Tuesday. “The information we have so far is that it will not reach the coast directly,” she said.
She said Polo would skirt the Pacific, “particularly the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán”. She urged people there to stay alert, Tribuna de la Bahía reported.
Warnings on the Mexican coast
With that advisory, Mexico’s government issued a tropical storm warning from Tecpan de Galeana, in Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán. Tropical storm conditions are expected there by early Wednesday 23 September.
A tropical storm watch now runs from west of Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula, on the southern Jalisco coast. Tropical storm conditions are possible there by Thursday 24 September.
Heavy rain is the main threat ashore. The NHC expects 75 to 150 millimetres, locally up to 200, along the coasts of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday.
It warns of “life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain”. Coastal Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco could see 50 to 100 millimetres, the NHC said.
Swells are expected to cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” in southwestern Mexico, according to the NHC. The SMN forecast waves of 3 to 4 metres off Michoacán and Guerrero, Milenio reported.
What it means for Puerto Vallarta
Puerto Vallarta, the Jalisco resort popular with American and Canadian residents, lies well north of the warning zone. On Tuesday morning it was roughly 760 kilometres north-northwest of the storm’s centre.
The city is on blue alert under SIAT-CT, Mexico’s early-warning system for tropical cyclones. Blue is the lowest level, meaning very low danger, the local newspaper Tribuna de la Bahía reported.
Jalisco’s state civil protection agency expects 100 to 150 millimetres of rain through Friday, mainly on the southern Jalisco coast. It also warned that waves could exceed three metres from Wednesday.
Puerto Vallarta’s civil protection and fire service warned of street flooding, rising rivers and landslides in vulnerable areas. Across the bay in Nayarit state, Bahía de Banderas asked residents to stay alert.
On the NHC forecast track, the centre passes closest to Puerto Vallarta around Thursday evening, roughly 400 kilometres to the south. The NHC wind table lists places only when the five-day chance of tropical-storm-force winds reaches 3%.
Puerto Vallarta does not appear on that list, while Manzanillo, farther south, shows 21%. As of Monday afternoon, two cruise ships were still due in Puerto Vallarta on Wednesday, Tribuna de la Bahía reported.
What it means for Los Cabos
Los Cabos, at the tip of the Baja California peninsula, lay more than 1,200 kilometres from Hurricane Polo on Tuesday. The later part of the forecast is what matters there.
The NHC track bends Polo northwest into waters southwest of the peninsula by Sunday 27 September, still as a major hurricane. Its forecast point for early Sunday lies roughly 370 kilometres southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
The NHC gives Cabo San Lucas a 13% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by early Sunday, and San José del Cabo 10%. Its discussion says steering currents “become more uncertain over the weekend”.
On Monday, Alberto Rentería Santana, the Los Cabos municipal secretary general, said Polo posed no risk to the municipality. The local news site Palabra BCS reported his remarks, made before Tuesday’s upgrade to Category 5.
What to watch next
The NHC expects some further strengthening through Tuesday night, forecasting winds near 290 km/h. It says Polo should begin pulling away from southwestern Mexico on Thursday night and Friday.
The next full NHC advisory is due at 3 p.m. Mexico City time, after an intermediate update at noon. The NHC advises people in Mexico to follow the SMN for local information.
More: Mexico coverage, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Hurricane Polo going to hit Puerto Vallarta?
Neither the US National Hurricane Center nor Mexico’s weather service forecasts a landfall. The NHC track keeps the centre offshore, passing roughly 400 kilometres south of Puerto Vallarta around Thursday evening. The city is on blue alert, the lowest level. Jalisco’s civil protection agency expects heavy rain and rough surf on the southern Jalisco coast through Friday.
Is Los Cabos at risk from Polo?
Not in the next few days. The NHC forecast brings Polo toward waters southwest of the Baja California peninsula around Sunday 27 September, when forecasts are least certain. It gives Cabo San Lucas a 13% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by early Sunday. Visitors should check the latest advisories before travelling.
Which parts of Mexico are under warnings?
A tropical storm warning covers the coast from Tecpan de Galeana, in Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán. A tropical storm watch extends from west of Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula in Jalisco. The main hazard ashore is heavy rain, which could cause life-threatening floods and mudslides.
What time zone do the advisories use?
The NHC issues Polo advisories in Central Standard Time, six hours behind UTC. That matches the time in Mexico City, Guerrero, Michoacán and Puerto Vallarta. Baja California Sur, including Los Cabos, is one hour behind.
Sources: NHC public advisory 8 on Hurricane Polo, NHC forecast discussion 8, NHC wind speed probabilities, NHC advisory archive for Polo, Milenio on the SMN forecast, Imagen Radio interview with the SMN, Tribuna de la Bahía on Puerto Vallarta and Bahía de Banderas, Tribuna de la Bahía on cruise arrivals, Tribuna de la Bahía on President Sheinbaum’s remarks, Palabra BCS on Los Cabos
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