Mexico · Weather
Updated 3 times · Latest: 6 October 2026
Key Facts
- The country — Mexico has about 130 million people and its Pacific coast is lined with resorts, from Zihuatanejo and Puerto Vallarta to Los Cabos. That coast faces a hurricane season every year.
- The scale — Category 5 is the top of the hurricane scale. Guerrero and Michoacán, the two states nearest this storm on 22 September, are steep and mountainous, so heavy rain there becomes flooding and mudslides fast.
- What changed — Polo formed as a tropical depression on Sunday 20 September 2026. It gained about 170 km/h of wind speed in 24 hours, reaching Category 5 at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, Mexico City time.
- What happened — Polo reached Category 5 on 22 September 2026, eased to Category 4, then returned to Category 5 overnight into Thursday 24 September. On 24 September it sat about 205 kilometres southwest of Zihuatanejo in Guerrero state, with winds near 260 km/h and a pressure of 923 millibars. It then dissipated: the NHC issued its final advisory at 8 p.m. on 29 September, with the remnants over north-western Mexico.
- The numbers — Polo is compact: hurricane-force winds reach only about 55 kilometres from the centre, tropical-storm winds about 150. The centre stayed at sea early on, and forecasts called for up to 200 millimetres of rain on Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday.
- What it means for you — At the peak, six ports were closed: Acapulco and Zihuatanejo to all vessels; Puerto Marqués, Lázaro Cárdenas, Manzanillo and Puerto Escondido to small craft. Coastal schools closed and Puerto Vallarta stayed on blue alert, the lowest level. By the final advisory on 29 September all coastal warnings had ended, and a wind advisory still covered southern New Mexico and far west Texas overnight.
- The outcome — Polo made landfall twice: first near Las Barrancas in Baja California Sur as a Category 2 hurricane around midnight between 28 and 29 September, then east of Guaymas, Sonora, as a Category 1 around midday on 29 September. No deaths were reported in Baja California Sur or Sonora, but Guaymas flooded and about 20,000 power users lost electricity in Baja California Sur. Earlier, on the night of 26 to 27 September, four members of one family died in Talpa de Allende, Jalisco, when a stream swept their home away.
Polo climbed to the top of the hurricane scale in about a day and a half, then stalled off Guerrero. It later made two landfalls, on 28–29 September, before dissipating; schools and ports along the coast had closed as it approached.
Hurricane Polo became a Category 5 storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast on Tuesday 22 September 2026, the top of the hurricane scale. Forecasters in Miami and Mexico City expected its centre to stay at sea at that point.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) still put sustained winds near 270 km/h in intermediate advisory 8A. It was issued at noon Mexico City time (18:00 UTC).
At that point the centre lay about 345 kilometres south of Zihuatanejo, a resort town in Guerrero state. Polo had stopped moving, with a central pressure of 920 millibars, 565 kilometres from Manzanillo.
For the latest on the Puerto Vallarta hurricane threat and the current storm, see our Puerto Vallarta hurricane page, updated 16 October.
How Polo ended
The US National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on Polo at 8 p.m. local time on 29 September (advisory 38). The remnants were over north-western Mexico, 245 miles (395 km) north-east of Guaymas, with 35 mph (55 km/h) winds. Coastal warnings had ended on Tuesday, and a wind advisory still covered southern New Mexico and far west Texas overnight.
Polo made landfall near Las Barrancas, Baja California Sur, as a Category 2 hurricane around midnight between 28 and 29 September, then east of Guaymas, Sonora, as a Category 1 around midday on 29 September. No deaths were reported in Baja California Sur or Sonora, but Guaymas flooded and about 20,000 power users lost electricity in Baja California Sur. Earlier, on the night of 26 to 27 September, four members of one family died in Talpa de Allende, Jalisco, when a stream swept their home away. The aftermath report has the full account.
The sections below record what forecasters expected as Polo built up between 20 and 22 September. They are kept for reference; the outcome is above.
A storm that grew in a day
Polo formed as Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on Sunday 20 September and became a tropical storm that night. By 9 a.m. on Monday its winds had reached 100 km/h.
It became a hurricane by 3 p.m. that afternoon and reached Category 4 around midnight. The NHC declared Category 5 at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, all times Mexico City time.
That is a gain of about 170 km/h in 24 hours. The NHC’s forecast discussion described “a spectacular presentation on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery”, with a small, well-defined eye.
Despite its strength, Hurricane Polo is compact. Hurricane-force winds reach only about 55 kilometres from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds about 150 kilometres.
Will Polo make landfall
The NHC says the core will stay near southwestern Mexico for several days, “although forecast to remain offshore”. It expects Polo to move west-northwest and run roughly parallel to the coast.
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN), part of the national water agency Conagua, also rules out a landfall by the centre. Imagen Radio reported that view after interviewing SMN meteorologist Javier Rodríguez on Tuesday morning.
Even offshore, the NHC says “some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely” at the closest approach. How close Polo will come remains uncertain, it adds.
President Claudia Sheinbaum gave the same outlook on Tuesday. “The information we have so far is that it will not reach the coast directly,” she said.
She said Polo would skirt the Pacific, “particularly the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán”. She urged people there to stay alert, Tribuna de la Bahía reported.
Warnings on the Mexican coast
A tropical storm warning runs from Tecpan de Galeana, in Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán. Tropical storm conditions are expected there by early Wednesday 23 September.
A tropical storm watch runs from west of Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula, on the southern Jalisco coast. Tropical storm conditions are possible there by Thursday 24 September.
Heavy rain is the main threat ashore. The NHC expects 75 to 150 millimetres, locally up to 200, along the coasts of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday.
It warns of “life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain”. Coastal Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco could see 50 to 100 millimetres, the NHC said.
Swells are expected to cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” in southwestern Mexico, according to the NHC. The SMN forecast waves of 3 to 4 metres off Michoacán and Guerrero, Milenio reported.
The NHC made no change to the warnings at noon. It said further watches or warnings could still be needed on Tuesday.
Schools and ports already closed
Guerrero’s state education ministry suspended classes on Tuesday across the Costa Grande, Acapulco and Costa Chica regions. It acted on civil protection advice, El Universal reported.
Michoacán closed schools on Tuesday and Wednesday in seven coastal municipalities, among them Lázaro Cárdenas. The state opened 19 shelters, Aristegui Noticias reported.
Jalisco’s civil protection agency has opened 38 temporary shelters with room for about 10,000 people. Colima expects Hurricane Polo’s closest approach to its coast on Wednesday or Thursday.
The port of Acapulco closed to small boats and coastal fishing at 3 p.m. on Monday. The regional harbour master’s office said the closure lasts until further notice.
The army has begun the preventive phase of DN-III-E, its disaster-relief plan, in Guerrero, Jalisco and Colima. The navy has activated its own Plan Marina along the Pacific.
What it means for Puerto Vallarta
Puerto Vallarta, the Jalisco resort popular with American and Canadian residents, lies well north of the warning zone. At noon on Tuesday it was roughly 770 kilometres north-northwest of the storm’s centre.
The city is on blue alert under SIAT-CT, Mexico’s early-warning system for tropical cyclones. Blue is the lowest level, meaning very low danger, the local newspaper Tribuna de la Bahía reported.
Jalisco’s state civil protection agency expects 100 to 150 millimetres of rain through Friday, mainly on the southern Jalisco coast. It also warned that waves could exceed three metres from Wednesday.
Puerto Vallarta’s civil protection and fire service warned of street flooding, rising rivers and landslides in vulnerable areas. Across the bay in Nayarit state, Bahía de Banderas asked residents to stay alert.
The cruise ship Island Princess has put back its Wednesday call at Puerto Vallarta to Thursday 24 September. That leaves one ship due on Wednesday, the port authority Asipona said in its updated schedule.
On the NHC forecast track, the centre passes closest to Puerto Vallarta around Thursday evening, roughly 400 kilometres to the south. The NHC wind table lists places only when the five-day chance of tropical-storm-force winds reaches 3%.
Puerto Vallarta does not appear on that list, while Manzanillo, farther south, shows 21%. That table was issued at 9 a.m. Mexico City time with advisory 8.
What it means for Los Cabos
Los Cabos, at the tip of the Baja California peninsula, lay more than 1,200 kilometres from Hurricane Polo on Tuesday. The later part of the forecast is what matters there.
The NHC track bends Polo northwest into waters southwest of the peninsula by Sunday 27 September, still as a major hurricane. Its forecast point for early Sunday lies roughly 370 kilometres southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
In that 9 a.m. table the NHC gave Cabo San Lucas a 13% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by early Sunday, and San José del Cabo 10%. Its discussion says steering currents “become more uncertain over the weekend”.
On Monday, Alberto Rentería Santana, the Los Cabos municipal secretary general, said Polo posed no risk to the municipality. The local news site Palabra BCS reported his remarks, made before Tuesday’s upgrade to Category 5.
What forecasters expected on 22 September
The NHC expects a little more strengthening through Tuesday night, forecasting winds near 290 km/h. It says strength could then fluctuate on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was flying out to measure Polo at noon, the NHC said. It expects the storm to begin pulling away from southwestern Mexico on Thursday night and Friday.
The next full NHC advisory is due at 3 p.m. Mexico City time (21:00 UTC). The NHC advises people in Mexico to follow the SMN for local information.
More: Mexico coverage, every day from The Rio Times.
Is Hurricane Polo going to hit Puerto Vallarta?
Neither the US National Hurricane Center nor Mexico’s weather service forecast a landfall near the city. The NHC track kept the centre offshore, passing roughly 400 kilometres south of Puerto Vallarta around Thursday evening. Polo has since dissipated. At the peak the city was on blue alert, the lowest level, and Jalisco’s civil protection agency had opened 38 temporary shelters.
Is Los Cabos at risk from Polo?
Polo made landfall in Baja California Sur around midnight on 28–29 September as a Category 2 hurricane, with no deaths reported there, and again near Guaymas, Sonora. The 22 September NHC forecast had brought Polo toward waters southwest of the Baja California peninsula around Sunday 27 September, when forecasts are least certain. It gave Cabo San Lucas a 13% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by early Sunday. Polo has dissipated; check the latest advisories for any new storm.
Which parts of Mexico are under warnings?
All coastal warnings had ended by Tuesday 29 September. At the peak, a tropical storm warning covered the coast from Tecpan de Galeana, in Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán, and a tropical storm watch extended from west of Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula in Jalisco. The main hazard ashore was heavy rain, which could cause life-threatening floods and mudslides. Guerrero and Michoacán suspended classes in coastal areas.
What damage did Hurricane Polo cause?
Polo flooded Guaymas, Sonora, and cut power to about 20,000 users in Baja California Sur. No deaths were reported in Baja California Sur or Sonora. Earlier, on the night of 26 to 27 September, four members of one family died in Talpa de Allende, Jalisco, when a stream swept their home away.
What time zone do the advisories use?
The NHC issues Polo advisories in Central Standard Time, six hours behind UTC. That matches the time in Mexico City, Guerrero, Michoacán and Puerto Vallarta. Baja California Sur, including Los Cabos, is one hour behind.
Sources: NHC intermediate advisory 8A on Hurricane Polo, NHC forecast discussion 8, NHC wind speed probabilities, NHC advisory archive for Polo, Milenio on the SMN forecast, Imagen Radio interview with the SMN, Tribuna de la Bahía on Puerto Vallarta and Bahía de Banderas, Tribuna de la Bahía on cruise arrivals, Tribuna de la Bahía on President Sheinbaum’s remarks, Palabra BCS on Los Cabos, El Universal on school closures, Aristegui Noticias on state shelters, Aristegui Noticias on the Acapulco port closure, Quadratín Jalisco on the cruise schedule, EFE via Infobae, second landfall, Proceso, landfall in Baja California Sur, Meteored México, damage count
Frequently Asked Questions
Earlier updates
24 September 2026: Polo re-intensified to Category 5 about 205 km southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds near 260 km/h and a pressure of 923 mb. A tropical storm warning ran from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, and the navy had closed six ports. Mexico’s weather service then expected a Category 2 about 125 km west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas at midday on Monday 28 September.
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