From Copper to Lithium: Peso and IPSA Signal Chile’s Market Resilience

The Central Bank of Chile announced on September 10, 2025, that it holds the benchmark interest rate at 4.75 percent.

This unanimous decision reflects caution over inflation at 4.0 percent year-on-year in August. Officials project GDP growth at 2.25 to 2.75 percent for 2025.

Traders watched the USD/CLP pair closely in the last 24 hours. The rate dipped to 961.03 on September 10 before stabilizing at 962.00 by morning on September 11.

This marks a 0.55 percent decline from the prior day. The move strengthens the peso for exporters facing dollar costs. Copper prices rose 0.92 percent to $4.61 per pound on September 10.

This supports Chile’s trade balance as the metal drives half of exports. Yet, unemployment lingers at 8.7 percent, and China demand risks add pressure. The peso‘s gain eases import bills for businesses but squeezes margins for dollar earners.

The S&P IPSA index closed down 0.13 percent at 8,973.69 on September 10. It opened flat at 8,974 on September 11 morning. Retail stocks led gains, with Falabella up 1.61 percent.

Miners lagged, as SQM fell 0.37 percent and Banco Chile dropped 0.96 percent. Energy firm Enel Americas rose 0.64 percent. Compared to peers, the IPSA underperformed. Brazil’s Bovespa climbed 0.52 percent to 142,349.

Argentina’s Merval surged 5.19 percent to 1,818,155. Mexico’s IPC edged up 0.3 percent in regional trends. LatAm stocks overall gained 0.54 percent, buoyed by commodity rebounds.

A lithium deal signed on September 5 lifts long-term prospects. ENAMI partners with private firms for the Salares Altoandinos project.

It targets 75,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent yearly by 2060. Direct lithium extraction cuts water use by 97 percent. Revenues could reach $15 billion, funding trade infrastructure.

The US Dollar Index held at 97.85 on September 11, down 0.01 percent overnight. This eases pressure on emerging currencies like the peso. Markets await US inflation data that could spur Fed rate cuts.

Technical indicators reveal key shifts in the last 24 hours. On the daily USD/CLP chart, the price breaks below the 50-day SMA at 965, signaling bearish momentum for the dollar. The RSI at 45 stays neutral, avoiding oversold territory.

MACD shows a bearish crossover, with histogram bars declining. Bollinger Bands contract around 962, hinting low volatility and potential consolidation. Support holds at 960, resistance at 975; volume confirms the downside move without spikes.

The 4-hour chart displays doji patterns near 962, suggesting indecision after the drop. Stochastic oscillator dips to 30, eyeing a bounce.

EMA 21 crosses below EMA 50, reinforcing short-term peso strength. Fibonacci retracement from recent high at 972 places 61.8 percent level at 958 as next support.

For IPSA daily, the index tests 8,950 support, with RSI at 55 indicating mild bullish bias. MACD histogram turns positive, but 200-day SMA at 8,900 looms as floor.

Volume rose 10 percent on September 10, validating the pullback. Bollinger Bands widen slightly, pointing to building volatility.

The 4-hour IPSA shows overbought Stochastic at 70, risking a retreat. Yet, price holds above EMA 20 at 8,960. Fibonacci 38.2 percent retracement from yearly low sits at 9,000, a near-term target.

The Global Liquidity Index NDQ, the yellow line, oscillates lower in recent sessions. It signals declining excess funds flowing to risk assets like Chilean stocks. This tempers rallies but supports steady trade flows.

Businesses eye these trends for deals. Exporters gain from peso power, while importers hedge costs. The lithium push secures supply chains for global batteries, bolstering Chile’s mercantile edge.

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