Argentina’s Markets Rebound on Data, Shadowed by Milei Setbacks

TradingView charts and media reports reports capture Argentina’s stock market shift. The S&P Merval index climbed 5.60% to 1,825,227.50 on September 10. President Javier Milei’s party lost big in Buenos Aires elections.

Peronists took 47% of votes; his group got 33.8%. Congress overrode his veto on disability benefits earlier. This sparked a 13.25% drop the prior day. However, August inflation eased to 1.9% month-over-month.

A treasury auction rolled over 91.43% of ARS 6.63 trillion in debts. These wins fueled the recovery. The peso stayed at 1,424 ARS per USD in official trading.

The blue dollar rate held near 1,390. Country risk lingered around 1,030 basis points. Global cues stayed mixed. The S&P 500 advanced 0.30%; the dollar index rose to 97.80. This hurt emerging currencies like the peso.

Brazil’s Bovespa outperformed with a 0.59% gain. Argentina lagged its peer amid local turmoil. Vaca Muerta gas exports hold trade promise. Prices could dip below USD 10 per MMBtu to beat Brazil’s cap.

Yet, politics threaten business flows. Top performers led the bounce. METR surged 11.65% on energy hopes. BMA gained 7.69% as banks steadied. SUPV rose 7.66%; EDN added 7.22%. GGAL climbed 6.70%. Decliners proved light.

CARC dropped 2.89% on rotation sells. FIPL fell 2.63%; GCLA shed 0.63%. Volumes rose sharply. ROFEX futures hit ARS 458 million notional. The ARGT ETF faced USD 50-100 million weekly outflows.

Technical signals show caution. The daily chart displays a hammer reversal above the 20-period EMA at 1,780,000. RSI moved from 25 oversold to 45, signaling shift.

MACD formed a bullish crossover below the 200-day SMA of 1,950,000. Bollinger Bands expanded to 5%; price lifted from the lower edge. Support sits at 1,700,000; resistance at 1,950,000. Volume backed the move.

Fibonacci retracement marks 61.8% at 1,800,000, now in play. The 4-hour view echoes this pattern. ARS/USD formed a bearish engulfing near 1,420 resistance. RSI hit 37 for possible pause.

The weekly chart sets a downtrend context. Merval fell 8% that week and 21.16% year-to-date. The yellow Global Liquidity Index NDQ swung wildly. It highlights emerging market pullbacks from dollar gains. Fundamentals offer some base.

Fiscal surplus lasted six months. Reserves reached USD 40.396 million. Soybeans traded at USD 372 per bushel. WTI crude sat at USD 63.79 per barrel. Markets eye U.S. PPI for next cues. Argentina needs steady exports and policies to build.