Mexican Peso Edges Stronger on Export Gains, Stocks Hover Near Peaks

TradingView charts show the Mexican peso at 18.5940 against the U.S. dollar on September 11, 2025 morning. The S&P/BMV IPC index reaches 60,656.32, close to record levels. These figures capture the last 24 hours of trade.

The peso gains 0.16% from September 10’s close at 18.6235. Volumes stay moderate per Banxico reports. The DXY index settles at 97.85, up just 0.07%. This mild dollar rise follows U.S. PPI data that missed forecasts at -0.03% month-over-month.

On September 10, the pair drops 0.21%. Softer U.S. figures boost Fed rate cut bets. The peso benefits as dollar pressure eases. Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei climbs on tech strength. European markets open flat before the ECB meeting.

Mexico’s August inflation hits 3.57% year-over-year, up from 3.51%, according to INEGI data cited in Rio Times reports. Banxico trims its rate to 7.75% to support growth at 0.6% to 1.5%. Yet core inflation lingers at 4.23%, prompting board caution on fast cuts.

The 2026 budget pledges no new taxes. Customs reforms and fraud crackdowns add $535 million in revenue. Debt stays below 50% of GDP by 2027. Welfare covers pensions and scholarships fully. This fiscal path eases Pemex bond strains.

July exports to the U.S. jump 8.2% to $45.37 billion, U.S. Census Bureau states. Autos and electronics lead the surge. January-to-July totals rise 6.5% to $309.75 billion. Mexico tops U.S. suppliers that month.

Peru votes 12-6 on September 8 to name President Sheinbaum persona non grata. Her support for ex-leader Pedro Castillo sparks the move. Ties strain under the 2012 free-trade pact. Business faces permit delays for firms like Bimbo.

In the IPC, energy shares win big with Pemex up 2%. Telecoms follow at 1.5%. Losers include Qualitas down 3.95%, Grupo Carso off 3.17%, and Cemex lower 2.86%. The index dips 0.31% on September 10, better than Bovespa’s 0.5% fall or Colombia’s Colcap 0.8% drop.

The IPC’s 22.5% year-to-date gain outpaces Latin peers. Strong exports fuel this edge in trade-focused markets. Daily charts reveal USD/MXN in a downtrend channel from 19.00 highs.

The 50-day SMA sits at 18.65, above price for bearish signal. The 200-day SMA at 18.75 adds resistance. RSI at 45 shows neutral momentum, no oversold bounce yet. MACD lines diverge downward, confirming peso strength.

Bollinger Bands squeeze near 20-day SMA, signaling low volatility and potential breakout below 18.50 support. Resistance holds at 18.65. Volume dips, lacking conviction for reversal. Fibonacci levels mark 61.8% retracement at 18.00 as next target.

For IPC, the index rides an uptrend above 50-day MA at 60,200. RSI climbs to 60, hinting bullish continuation. MACD stays positive with rising histogram.

Bollinger Bands expand upward, matching volume spikes that validate gains. Support firms at 59,500, resistance at 61,000 Fibonacci extension.

The yellow Global Liquidity Index NDQ line slopes up steadily. This trend aids risk flows into emerging assets like Mexican stocks. It reflects easier credit conditions from central banks.

Exports drive the peso’s real mercantile story. Trade surpluses counter inflation risks. Fiscal restraint builds investor trust. Diplomatic noise fades against business gains. Markets watch ECB for dollar cues.