Copper Starts The Week Firmer As China Signals Stabilize And Supply Risks Recede

Copper opened the new week on a steadier footing, with LME three-month contracts hovering just below the $11,000-per-tonne mark and COMEX near $5.05 per pound.

The tone is constructive rather than exuberant: risk appetite improved after better Chinese price data, yet spot signals from China remain mixed enough to keep a lid on breakouts.

The past seven days told a two-track story. On one track, supply anxiety eased. Chile’s Los Pelambres secured a new contract with supervisors, removing a strike risk that had loomed over refined availability.

Exchange inventories, while still lean by historical standards, ticked higher through the week—enough to cool the sharpest squeezes without flipping the market to comfortable surplus. On the other track, demand optics in China were cautious.

October refined imports softened from September and the Yangshan import premium drifted into the mid-$30s per tonne, implying tepid physical appetite at elevated prices.

That combination—less supply tension, lukewarm spot demand—naturally capped attempts to push decisively above $11,000.

Overnight, Shanghai futures firmed as macro sentiment brightened, but spot premia did not follow suit. In London, volumes were steady and the forward curve stayed in shallow contango, consistent with a market that is tight but not panicked.

In the U.S., the wide COMEX–LME basis remains a watch-item for arbitrage and for consumers hedging dollar-denominated exposure.

Technically, the 4-hour chart has turned up: price reclaimed the 50/100-EMA cluster, MACD crossed higher, and RSI sits in the high-50s—momentum without froth.

On the daily timeframe, RSI hovers in the mid-50s and MACD stabilizes just positive. A daily close above roughly $5.10 per pound would open a path toward the $5.18–$5.24 zone; failure back below $5.00 risks a drift to the 50-day average near $4.95–$4.97.

The market’s near-term balance still hinges on China’s real-economy pull. If credit and grid spending firm—and if the Yangshan premium turns higher—copper can challenge and hold above $11,000.

Absent that, expect range-trading while miners and smelters navigate squeezed treatment charges and investors favor disciplined, supply-side realism over policy-driven promises.

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