Iron Ore Slips Toward $100 As Chinese Mills Cut Runs And Port Stockpiles Swell

Iron ore drifted lower in Asian trading, with the 62% Fe CFR China benchmark hovering around $101–103 a tonne after last week’s steady slide.

Futures in Singapore marked fresh multi-month lows, while Dalian’s most-traded contract dipped near 760 yuan, signaling fragile sentiment as Chinese steelmakers trim output and margins remain thin.

The past seven days told a clear story of supply meeting softening demand. China’s seaborne purchases stayed robust through October, but inventories at major ports climbed to the highest since early spring, a sign that ore is arriving faster than steel is leaving mills.

Several producers entered maintenance to stem losses, and the removal of short-term pollution curbs in Hebei failed to spark immediate restarts—an implicit vote for discipline until orders improve.

Macro signals were mixed. China’s October inflation data edged in the right direction, yet downstream steel demand—construction and manufacturing—has not responded in kind.

That gap kept traders focused on the near-term balance sheet: plentiful ore, cautious blast-furnace runs, and a ferrous complex that has turned risk-off across ore, coke, and coking coal.

Technicals reinforce the caution. On the four-hour chart, prices hug the lower Bollinger band under a falling 20/50-EMA stack; RSI has bounced from oversold but stays sub-50, and MACD remains negative.

The daily view shows a roll-over since late October, with momentum below zero and RSI near the high-30s. A dense resistance shelf sits around $104–105; support clusters near the 200-day zone around $101.

A decisive close back above $105 would be the first sign that bears are losing grip. For now, the market is rewarding prudence. Without firmer end-use steel orders or a plateau in port stocks, iron ore likely trades a $100–105 range with a downside skew.

Watch this week’s inventory prints and any hints of improved mill margins. If those turn, the tape can stabilize quickly; if not, the psychology around the $100 handle will do the talking.

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