Copper Holds at $4.93 as Global Flows, Surplus, and Resistance Cap Gains

Copper traded at $4.9347 per pound on June 11, 2025, as shown on TradingView’s 4-hour and daily charts, reflecting a market stuck in consolidation below key resistance.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) cash settlement price closed at $9,854 per metric ton on June 10, marking a marginal gain but underscoring that the market remains rangebound.

Yesterday, copper prices held steady as traders weighed a projected global surplus against persistent demand risks. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a 2025 surplus of 289,000 tonnes, with new supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, and Russia outpacing sluggish demand.

LME inventories rose from 120,400 to 122,400 tonnes over the last two days, confirming that supply growth continues to pressure prices. The previous session saw copper futures lose ground overnight as uncertainty around US–China trade talks and tariff threats dominated sentiment.

More copper left LME warehouses for the US, where anticipation of tariffs on copper imports has driven a premium over London prices. US CME copper stocks climbed to 187,877 tons, a weekly increase of 7,000 tons.

Production delays at Teck Resources’ Chilean operations and interruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC added to supply-side headlines, but did not spark a breakout.

Technical analysis from the provided charts shows copper trading above its 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages on both the 4-hour and daily timeframes.

The 4-hour chart reveals the price holding between $4.91 and $4.95, above the Ichimoku Cloud, with Bollinger Bands moderately wide, indicating ongoing volatility but no strong trend.

The daily chart shows copper in the upper half of the Bollinger Band range, but repeated failures to close above $5.02 per pound highlight stiff resistance.

The Ichimoku Cloud continues to provide support, but volume remains average and momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index, is neutral.

ETF flows reflect this caution. The Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ) saw a 0.96% decline in net asset value on June 10, with total assets at $13.7 million, as investors remain wary of short-term volatility.

Demand remains under pressure, particularly in China, where the Yangshan premium has softened and inventories have grown. The long-term outlook for copper remains anchored by electrification and infrastructure investment.

However, immediate headwinds from trade policy and macroeconomic uncertainty keep the market in check. In summary, copper’s price action at $4.9347 per pound, confirmed by both chart and LME data, reflects a market caught between surplus fears and tariff-driven flows.

Technicals show consolidation below resistance, and fundamentals offer no clear catalyst for a breakout. Traders remain cautious, awaiting a decisive move from macro or policy developments.

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