Brazilians in Japan Back Flávio, Count Shows
BRAZIL · ELECTION DAY · VOTE ABROAD
Published Sunday, 25 October, 9:13 a.m. ET · Source: Metrópoles and Jornal Razão, from ballot-box reports (unofficial)
Brazilians in Japan voted for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro over President Lula by 28,538 votes to 7,098 in Sunday’s presidential runoff, according to Metrópoles’ tally of ballot-box reports. The count is unofficial until the electoral court confirms it.
Key Facts
- —Japan Flávio Bolsonaro 28,538 votes (80.1% of valid votes), Lula 7,098 (19.9%), from 119 ballot-box reports (as of 8:07 a.m. ET).
- —Australia Lula 6,017 votes (63.5%), Flávio Bolsonaro 3,465 (36.5%).
- —Elsewhere Lula also led in New Zealand, China, Singapore and South Korea; Flávio led in Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines.
- —Official count The electoral court (TSE) has not confirmed these figures; its national results start at 4 p.m. ET.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 78.8% and Lula 20.5% to win the presidency (9:10 a.m. ET, Sunday 25 October). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 81% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 25 October, 9:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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Brazilians in Japan gave Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, 80.1% of valid votes in the Brazil election 2026 runoff, against 19.9% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. Metrópoles, a Brazilian news site, adds up the reports that each voting machine prints when polls close, citing the electoral court’s data.
Jornal Razão, a Brazilian regional news site, reports the same Japan figures from 119 ballot-box reports in Tokyo, Nagoya and Hamamatsu. Brazilians abroad are under 1% of the electorate, so this is not a forecast; see our Brazil election polls page and the Brazil election odds page.
In Plain English
- Runoff: a second round between the two leading candidates, held because nobody won more than half the valid votes on Sunday 4 October.
- Lula: Brazil’s president and the candidate of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
- Flávio Bolsonaro: a senator for Rio de Janeiro state and the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL); his father, Jair Bolsonaro, was president from 2019 to 2022.
- Ballot-box report: the tally each voting machine prints when its polls close; the electoral court (TSE) later publishes official results.
What Japan Voted
Flávio Bolsonaro received 28,538 votes and Lula 7,098 in Japan, a lead of 21,440 votes. Metrópoles puts the Japan result at 80.08% to 19.92% of valid votes, in a tally updated at 9:07 a.m. in Brasília (8:07 a.m. ET).
Japan alone supplies most of the votes counted so far across the 11 countries in Metrópoles’ partial tally of 47,499 valid votes. That is why Flávio Bolsonaro leads the early overseas total even though Lula leads in six of the 13 Asia-Pacific countries counted by Jornal Razão.
Where Lula Led in Asia and Oceania
In Australia, Lula won 6,017 votes to 3,465 (63.5% to 36.5%), according to Metrópoles. Jornal Razão lists Lula ahead in New Zealand with 80.5% of valid votes and in Singapore with 63.8%, and both sites show him ahead in China.
Lula also led in South Korea with 64.3%. Flávio Bolsonaro led in Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, where counts ranged from 66 to 224 valid votes.
What It Means for You
About 265,000 Brazilians in 11 US cities can vote, the largest overseas bloc, and their polls close later on Sunday. Read 265,000 Brazilians in the US Can Vote Sunday for the city list.
Brazilian and US stock markets are closed on Sunday, so the first market reaction to the national result comes on Monday 26 October. Overseas counts of this size cannot move markets, but they show how differently Brazilians abroad vote by country.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders gave Flávio Bolsonaro 78.8% and Lula 20.5% for winning the presidency at 9:10 a.m. ET on Sunday 25 October. The Brazil Presidential Election market has drawn about US$198 million in trading.
A separate Polymarket market on who finishes first among overseas voters, with about US$180,000 traded, gave Lula 85.0% and Flávio Bolsonaro 15.5%. The early count, led by Japan, runs the other way. These prices are bets, not polls and not results.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.6% · Lula 21.5% (US$198 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 81% · Lula 21%
As of 25 October, 9:20 am ET (13:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The figures come from news sites’ tallies of ballot-box reports, and the electoral court has not published them. Totals from Europe and the Americas are not yet counted, and the early lead for Flávio Bolsonaro may narrow or reverse when they arrive, and the Japan numbers may change as more reports arrive.
It is not known how overseas turnout will end. No national result exists until polls in Brazil close at 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Brasília).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Brazil vote in Japan?
Flávio Bolsonaro won among Brazilians in Japan with 28,538 votes (80.1% of valid votes) against 7,098 for Lula, according to Metrópoles. The figures are unofficial ballot-box tallies.
Did Lula win in Australia?
Yes, in the unofficial count. Metrópoles reports Lula with 6,017 votes (63.5%) and Flávio Bolsonaro with 3,465 (36.5%).
Are these official results?
No. They are tallies of ballot-box reports, and the electoral court (TSE) publishes official results from 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Brasília).
Does the overseas vote predict the national result?
No, because Brazilians abroad are under 1% of voters and lean differently by country. Japan alone makes up most of the votes counted so far.
How many Brazilians can vote abroad?
Metrópoles, citing the electoral court, says 918,876 Brazilians in 186 cities across 134 countries are registered to vote abroad.
Sources: Metrópoles, votação no exterior, 25 October 2026, Jornal Razão, resultado em 13 países da Ásia e Oceania, 25 October 2026, TSE, voting abroad, Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election. Opened on Sunday 25 October 2026. Figures are unofficial.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief