Iron Ore Prices Hold Near Lows as Technical and Fundamental Pressures Persist

Official Singapore Exchange data show the SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China Index Futures traded at $95.90 per ton on June 11, 2025, with prices hovering just above the crucial $94.75 support.

The market has not seen any significant rebound, and the price remains locked below all major moving averages. This confirms a persistent downtrend that began in late May and has continued into June.

The daily chart reveals a clear technical breakdown. The price sits under the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends lower but stays above oversold territory, showing ongoing negative momentum without any sign of a reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, reinforcing the dominance of bearish sentiment. Bollinger Bands have widened, and price candles frequently touch or breach the lower band, signaling strong selling pressure.

No spike in volume has accompanied these moves, which suggests steady, controlled selling rather than panic. The four-hour chart mirrors the daily trend. The price action remains below the main moving averages, and the Ichimoku Cloud sits above the price, confirming resistance.

Short-term attempts to rally have failed to break through resistance at $97.35 and $98.40. The $94.75 level continues to act as a key pivot, with brief dips below it quickly bought but not sustained.

Fundamental factors reinforce the technical weakness. Chinese steel demand remains subdued, as the country’s property sector struggles and steel mills operate cautiously.

Iron Ore Market Faces Pressure Amid Weak Chinese Demand

Official data show only modest growth in steel production, and blast furnace utilization rates remain low. Inventories at Chinese ports stand at 146.85 million tons, up 28% year-on-year, highlighting oversupply.

Steelmakers have shifted from restocking to just-in-time purchasing, further limiting demand. On the supply side, Australian and Brazilian shipments remain stable, with no new disruptions.

The ongoing quality downgrade of Pilbara Blend fines by Rio Tinto forces mills to buy more ore to meet requirements, but this has not offset weak demand.

Macroeconomic data from China continue to disappoint, with the latest Purchasing Managers Index readings pointing to contraction and fixed asset investment growth slowing. Heavy industry investment, a previous support for steel demand, shows signs of plateauing.

Market participants have not reported any major ETF inflows or outflows, and trading volumes remain steady, indicating a wait-and-see approach.

Analysts expect prices to remain under pressure unless Chinese demand rebounds or a significant supply disruption occurs. The $94.75 level now acts as immediate support, with further downside possible if current trends persist.

Iron ore’s slide below $95 highlights the market’s sensitivity to Chinese demand and the absence of bullish catalysts. The technical and fundamental landscape both point to continued caution for traders and producers in the days ahead.

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