Published Thursday 12 November 2026 · Source: ruling-party speech of 11 November, Law 26/045, Constitution of DR Congo, Polymarket
Key Facts
- Who: Augustin Kabuya, secretary general of the ruling UDPS (Union for Democracy and Social Progress), spoke on Wednesday 11 November.
- Message: He told party members to “vote for a new constitution” when a referendum is held.
- Law: Law 26/045 of 9 November took effect when signed and sets the rules for any referendum.
- Not known: No referendum date or question has been announced, and the opposition fears a third term.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, prices President Félix Tshisekedi leaving office by 31 December at 2.55% (12 November, 3:08 p.m. Eastern Time).
Congo’s ruling party has begun campaigning for a referendum that has not even been called. Augustin Kabuya, secretary general of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), told members on Wednesday 11 November to “vote for a new constitution” when the vote comes, according to Congolese media reports.
It matters beyond the capital, Kinshasa, because the Democratic Republic of Congo is the world’s largest cobalt producer, according to the US Geological Survey, the US government’s earth-science agency, and cobalt is a metal used in the batteries of electric cars and phones. Opposition parties say a new constitution could let President Félix Tshisekedi stay in power beyond his second and last term under the current one.
What Kabuya Told His Party
Speaking to UDPS officials and activists, Kabuya told them to “vote for a new constitution” when a referendum is held, according to Congolese media reports of the speech. The call came days after the law was signed.
The message is not new. On 22 September 2026, at a UDPS march in Kinshasa, Kabuya publicly said the moment had come to change the constitution and called on Tshisekedi to act.
In Plain English: Who Is Who
The UDPS is the party of Tshisekedi, who has led Congo since January 2019. He was re-elected in December 2023, and Kabuya is the party’s secretary general.
The current constitution dates from 2006 and limits a president to two terms. Its Article 220 bars any revision of the number and duration of presidential terms.
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What the New Law Does
Law 26/045, dated Monday 9 November, sets the rules for organising a referendum: its purpose, who can start one, how it is called, the campaign and the offences that can be punished. A deputy spokesman of the president read passages on state television (RTNC, the national broadcaster) on 10 November, and the law took effect when signed.
The law makes taking part a civic duty for every registered citizen aged 18 or older. Nobody may vote more than once.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, price the chance that Tshisekedi is out as president by 31 December 2026 at 2.55% (as of 15:08 Eastern Time, 20:08 UTC, on 12 November). About US$21,640 has been traded on that market in total, which is thin.
The price covers only the rest of this year, so it says nothing about a referendum in 2027 or a third term after 2028. Prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For investors in Congolese cobalt, the law changes no mining rule and calls no vote. What it does is start a political fight over how long Tshisekedi can rule, in a country where the eastern provinces are also in conflict.
Watch for a decree or announcement that sets a referendum date and question, and for any move by the opposition or by the Constitutional Court, the country’s top court on constitutional questions. Our earlier reports cover the signing of the law, the third-term debate and the wider DR Congo coverage.
What Is Not Known
No referendum date, question or draft constitution has been announced. The UDPS has not published a transcript of the speech that we could find.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the UDPS say about the referendum?
Secretary general Augustin Kabuya told members on 11 November to vote for a new constitution when a referendum is held. No date has been set.
Is there a referendum date in DR Congo?
No date or question has been announced. Law 26/045 of 9 November only sets the rules for organising one.
Why does the opposition object?
Opposition parties say a new constitution could let Tshisekedi stay in power after his second term. The current constitution’s Article 220 bars changes to presidential term limits.
What do prediction markets say about Tshisekedi?
Polymarket traders price his leaving office by 31 December 2026 at 2.55% as of 15:08 Eastern Time on 12 November. That market has about US$21,640 in total volume.
Sources: Law no. 26/045 of 9 November 2026 on the organisation of the referendum, passages read on national television on 10 November 2026; Constitution of the Democratic Republic of Congo of 2006, article 220; US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries (cobalt); public statements by the UDPS secretary general of 22 September 2026 and 11 November 2026 as reported by Congolese media; Polymarket market on Tshisekedi leaving office, read 12 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error