Colombian Peso Holds Firm as Stocks Dip Amid Trade Steadying

TradingView charts capture the Colombian peso’s stance against the U.S. dollar and the MSCI COLCAP index’s movements as of September 12, 2025, morning.

The USD/COP rate sits at 3,892.75 pesos per dollar, up 0.14% from yesterday’s close of 3,887.30. This marks a subtle rebound after the peso gained 0.80% on September 11, making it Latin America’s second-strongest currency that day.

Traders eye this stability for export edges, as a firmer peso cuts import costs for businesses reliant on U.S. goods. Over the last 24 hours, the dollar index (DXY) climbs 0.12% to 97.65, yet it pressures emerging currencies less due to U.S. inflation at 2.9% year-over-year.

Colombia’s eurobond issuance on September 11 raises funds tightly after a decade’s gap, bolstering fiscal trust. Economic growth hits 2.7% in Q1 2025, per official data, while minimum wage rises 9.54%.

These factors steady trade flows, though fiscal path concerns linger. The MSCI COLCAP index opens near 1,855 points, down 0.99% from September 11’s close.

Trading volume reaches $85 million locally that day. Celsia leads winners with gains from $1.2 billion Peru renewable deals, lifting energy stocks 1.2%. Ecopetrol lags as top loser, dropping 2.1% on oil price wobbles.

Overall, the index trails peers: Mexico’s IPC rises 0.5%, Brazil’s Bovespa gains 0.3%, while Colombia’s 40.47% year-to-date uptick still outpaces Argentina’s 25%.

USD/COP Shows Bearish Pressure With Signs of Rebound

Technical analysis reveals key signals on the charts. The 4-hour USD/COP chart shows a downward trend from August’s 4,100 high to 3,800 low, with the 50-period SMA crossing below the 200-period at 3,950, signaling bearish momentum.

RSI (14-period) dips to 26, near oversold, hinting at a possible bounce. MACD lines converge negatively, with histogram bars shrinking, confirming fading seller strength.

Bollinger Bands contract around the 20-period SMA at 3,900, indicating low volatility and consolidation. Support holds at 3,800 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement; resistance looms at 3,950. Volume stays subdued, validating the quiet rebound without strong conviction.

On the daily chart, USD/COP extends the multi-month decline from March’s 4,000, with EMA 21 below EMA 50, reinforcing the downtrend. RSI climbs from 20 to 28, easing oversold pressure slowly.

MACD shows a bullish divergence as the line hooks up, suggesting momentum shift. Bollinger Bands widen slightly, with price hugging the lower band at 3,850, pointing to potential mean reversion.

Key support at 3,800 aligns with volume spikes from September 5; resistance at 4,000 draws from prior highs. The yellow Global Liquidity Index NDQ line trends flat at 27.10, reflecting steady but unexciting dollar liquidity that aids peso trade competitiveness without surges.

For COLCAP, the 4-hour chart displays an uptrend from June’s 1,500 to 1,850, but pullback tests 1,840 support. 50-SMA holds above 200-SMA at 1,820, maintaining bullish bias. RSI at 52 stays neutral; MACD crosses positively.

Bollinger Bands expand, with price near middle band, signaling building volatility. Daily view confirms rise from March’s 1,400, with RSI above 50 and MACD bullish. NDQ yellow line at 66.65 inches up, boosting liquidity for stock trades.

Merchants benefit from peso firmness aiding imports, yet stock dips curb equity gains. Colombia benchmarks well against volatile peers, positioning trade steady for now.

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