Argentina’s Peso Edges Up as Milei’s Reforms Yield Mixed Gains

Argentina’s peso showed resilience on September 12, 2025, with the central bank fixing the official USD/ARS rate at 1,445. Parallel traders snapped up blue dollars at 1,390 and sold at 1,410.

The gap between rates shrank to just 2.4 percent. Soybean exporters pumped fresh dollars into the market. President Javier Milei’s fiscal axe slashed deficits for the first time in over a century. Yet the economy shrank 2.6 percent in the latest quarter.

Poverty eased to 31.6 percent in the first half of 2025. The National Institute of Statistics and Census called it the lowest rate since 2018. Wages started catching up to costs in vital industries.

Inflation cooled to 1.9 percent for August alone. The yearly figure dipped to 33.6 percent from July’s 36.6 percent. Prices climbed 19.5 percent so far this year.

The S&P Merval index slipped 1.10 percent to close at 1,805,182 on September 11. It trails year-to-date by 28.10 percent. Peers in emerging markets surged 24.42 percent over the same stretch.

Brazil’s Bovespa climbed 0.62 percent that day. Local volatility dragged the Merval down. Financial shares bore the brunt of the pain. Supervielle plunged 4.6 percent as loan demand dried up.

Transportadora de Gas del Norte shed 3.5 percent. Edenor tumbled 3.4 percent on regulatory jitters. Energy plays bucked the trend. Central Puerto rose 1.1 percent on higher exports.

Pampa Energia edged up 0.6 percent. Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos gained 1.4 percent.
The daily Merval chart painted a bearish picture. Prices dipped below the 50-day simple moving average at 1,850,000.

The 200-day average braced support near 1,700,000. The relative strength index hit 34.43, deep in oversold territory. Moving average convergence divergence flashed a negative crossover. Bollinger Bands squeezed tight amid fading volatility.

Trading volume withered during the slide. On the four-hour view, lower highs emerged. Prices brushed the lower Bollinger Band. Fibonacci retracement locked in at the 61.8 percent level around 1,795,000 for support.

The USD/ARS pair pressed higher in an uptrend. It cleared the 200-day simple moving average at 1,200. The relative strength index edged toward 67.49, flirting with overbought.

Exponential moving averages of 12 and 26 periods fueled a bullish MACD signal. Volume held firm. Resistance loomed at 1,442. The yellow Global Liquidity Index line ticked up to 22.1.

Central banks swelled their balance sheets by $2.43 trillion this year. Extra cash greased flows into risk assets like Argentine stocks. Converging official and blue rates hinted at healthier markets.

Controls lifted earlier fueled this tie-up. Reforms sharpened export edges in commodities.
Trade surpluses swelled from farm goods. Cuts at home sapped consumer spending.

Unemployment ticked higher by a notch. Investors scanned midterm election risks. The central bank stepped in to tame swings.

The economy bet big on trade muscle. Decades of red ink finally vanished. Lower prices softened daily strains. Analysts peg 2026 growth at 5.5 percent.