China Weighs Risks of a Flávio Bolsonaro Win

BRAZIL · ELECTION · CHINA

China is Brazil’s biggest customer, and Beijing is watching Sunday’s runoff to see whether a conservative president close to Donald Trump would pull Brazil toward Washington.

China is weighing the risks of a Flávio Bolsonaro government for its trade with Brazil, according to two recent reports published ahead of the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October. China bought US$99.9 billion of Brazilian goods in 2025, more than two and a half times what the United States bought, Brazil’s trade ministry data show.

No result is known as we publish, because polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time (our Brazil runoff date guide has the results schedule). For the numbers behind the race, see our Brazil election polls tracker and the Brazil election odds page.

What Beijing Is Watching

Daniel Rittner of CNN Brasil reported on Monday 21 September that sources in Beijing are tracking Flávio Bolsonaro’s “words and practices” to judge how ties with Brazil would fare if he won. The sources voiced concern about an openly pro-US and China-hostile stance, but see him as more pragmatic and moderate than his father.

Privately, Rittner wrote, Chinese officials call the relationship strategic and not vulnerable to short-term setbacks. Ambassador Zhu Qingqiao is expected to stay out of the campaign and off social media.

The report named critical minerals and artificial intelligence as areas to watch, and its sources did not expect a pro-US stance to hurt trade much. Investment is less certain, because recent advances depend on good political relations.

Opera Mundi, a São Paulo news site, consulted three experts for a report it published on Saturday 24 October. Jiang Shixue, a Chinese Latin America specialist the site describes as a professor at Hangzhou Normal University, told it that a Flávio Bolsonaro win could make Brazil’s role in BRICS “more passive or negative”.

What the Trade Numbers Show

Brazil’s trade ministry data show exports to China reached US$99.9 billion in 2025, or 28.7% of the US$348.3 billion total, against US$37.7 billion, or 10.8%, to the United States. Brazil bought US$70.9 billion of Chinese goods and US$45.1 billion of US goods.

Soybeans account for about a third of the China trade, with US$34.5 billion shipped in 2025, or about 79% of Brazil’s soy export value. The ministry counts 85.4 million tonnes of soy shipped to China out of a national total of 108.2 million.

In 2026 the gap has widened, with exports to China up 12.0% to US$84.7 billion from January to September while exports to the United States fell 6.5% to US$27.5 billion. The US Trade Representative put a 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods into effect on Wednesday 22 July 2026.

Ruben Gonzalez-Vicente, an associate professor at the University of Birmingham in Opera Mundi’s telling, noted that Brazil kept trading with China under Jair Bolsonaro. He called it unrealistic to expect any government to shut China out, because agribusiness and soy exporters would not want ties broken.

Where a Policy Shift Could Show First

Rare earths are the clearest test, because Brazil holds 11 million tons of reserves, second only to China’s 44 million among countries that publish figures, the US Geological Survey says. Brazil mined only an estimated 2,000 tons in 2025 against China’s 270,000, so the open question is who builds the mines and processing plants.

Flávio Bolsonaro told the CPAC conservative conference in the United States on Saturday 28 March 2026 that Brazil can be “the solution” to US dependence on China for rare earths, Tribuna de Jundiaí reported. The same survey says China supplied 71% of US imports of rare-earth compounds and metals from 2021 to 2024.

Rittner also reported that the US Trade Representative asked Brazil on Friday 9 January 2026 to review Anglo American’s sale of nickel mines to China’s MMG, a US$500 million deal from 2025. It also asked for notice before control of deposits passes to “non-market economies”, and there was no effective negotiation.

What It Means for You

For US farmers, Brazil is a major rival for Chinese soybean buyers, and Senator Tereza Cristina told GloboNews, in remarks reported on Monday 12 October, that Brazil’s farm exporters “compete with the United States” for that market. China took about 79% of Brazil’s soy export value in 2025, so a change in that link could also matter to US growers.

For US investors and policymakers, the question is how a Brasília closer to Washington would handle Chinese bids for mines, telecoms and data centres. Rittner’s report says the US asked in January for a review of the MMG nickel deal and that there was no effective negotiation on it.

For US minerals strategy, Brazil matters because China supplies most US rare-earth imports and Brazil holds the second-largest reported reserves. Flávio Bolsonaro has pitched Brazil as the alternative, but Brazilian output is still small next to China’s.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (25 October, 5:04 a.m. ET). The Brazil Presidential Election event has drawn about US$197 million in bets, with about US$27.9 million on the Flávio contract and US$30.8 million on the Lula contract.

These prices are bets, not polls, and they do not show how Beijing or Washington would react to either result. The Flávio Bolsonaro price rose 0.15 points over the past 24 hours, the platform’s own data show.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The result of the vote is not known, and this article does not forecast it. Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET) on Sunday 25 October, and the electoral court publishes the count after that.

Neither report quotes a Chinese official on the record, because CNN Brasil relied on unnamed sources in Beijing and Opera Mundi on experts it chose to interview. Neither is a statement of Chinese government policy.

It is also unknown how Flávio Bolsonaro would treat Chinese bids for mines, telecoms or data centres, because his platform mentions China only in trade terms. Analysts are reading signals from his speeches and allies, not a published China plan.

Trade totals also differ by source: the ministry counts 85.4 million tonnes of soy shipped to China in 2025, while Rittner cited 87 million. We use the ministry’s figure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does China care who wins Brazil’s runoff?

China bought US$99.9 billion of Brazilian goods in 2025, 28.7% of Brazil’s exports. Analysts quoted by Opera Mundi say a government closer to Washington could change who wins mining and telecom projects.

Would a Flávio Bolsonaro government cut trade with China?

The sources in both reports see a collapse in trade as unlikely, because Brazil’s soy, iron ore, oil and meat depend on Chinese buyers. The bigger question is investment, minerals and technology.

What does Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform say about China?

It promises to negotiate with everyone who matters to Brazil, from China to the European Union. It does not mention BRICS and resumes Brazil’s OECD accession process.

Why do rare earths matter in this story?

Rare earths are a group of metals whose leading global use is in magnets, and Brazil holds the second-largest reported reserves after China. Brazil mined only an estimated 2,000 tons in 2025.

When do polls close, and is a result known?

Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET) on Sunday 25 October. No result is known at the time of writing.

Sources: Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Comex Stat trade data, retrieved 25 October 2026, US Trade Representative, Section 301 action on Brazil, 15 July 2026, Federal Register, Notice of Action, 20 July 2026, US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, Flávio Bolsonaro government platform 2027 to 2030 (PDF, 76 pages, copy hosted by Congresso em Foco), Lula government programme (PDF, 84 pages, copy hosted by Congresso em Foco), Agência Brasil on voting hours, 24 October 2026, Brazilian Constitution, Article 77, New Development Bank, history, Opera Mundi, 24 October 2026, CNN Brasil, Daniel Rittner, 21 September 2026, Gazeta do Povo, 8 July 2026, Jovem Pan, 8 July 2026, Tribuna de Jundiaí, 30 March 2026, Diário do Grande ABC, 12 October 2026. All retrieved 25 October 2026. Trade figures are Comex Stat values in US dollars (FOB) and may be revised. Quotations from Portuguese are our translation.

This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief