Lula vs Flávio: Where They Stand on 7 Issues
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy and a major oil and soybean exporter, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- The candidates President Lula, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party faces conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
- What happened Both filed programmes with the electoral court in August, and Flávio backed ending the six-day work week on Tuesday 13 October.
- The biggest gaps The two split most on the state’s role, with Lula keeping the 2023 fiscal rule and Flávio promising privatisations and a new debt rule.
- Where they agree Both promise to keep Bolsa Família, target the money of criminal factions and set zero-deforestation goals for 2029 or 2030.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 86% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (14 October, 2:11 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 14% and 15%), as of 14 October, 3:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro is a choice between two very different plans for Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. On Sunday 25 October, voters choose a left-wing president seeking a fourth term or a conservative senator promising tax cuts and closer US ties.
This guide compares their positions on seven issues, using the programmes both filed with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil’s elections. It also uses their own recent statements, and our profiles of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro give the background.
The Economy and Taxes
On the economy, Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro pits continuity against a rewrite of the budget rules. Lula, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) he co-founded in 1980, promises in his 84-page programme to keep the fiscal framework adopted in 2023.
The framework caps spending growth, and the plan credits it with cutting the deficit while protecting social policies. It says about 140,000 top earners pay more, funding an income-tax exemption on monthly pay up to R$5,000 (about US$997 at 14 October exchange rates).
Flávio, of his father’s conservative Liberal Party (PL), says in his 76-page programme that the PT replaced the spending cap with “fragile rules”. He promises new rules focused on cutting public debt, with primary surpluses, meaning budget surpluses before interest payments.
His plan also pledges to cut at least 10 ministries, revive privatisations case by case and lower taxes on electricity and fuel. It builds on the eight-point platform he first set out in February.
Relations With the United States and Trump
On Washington, Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro is a contrast between resisting Trump’s tariffs and rebuilding ties. Lula’s programme says Brazil faced “at least three waves of tariff hikes by the Trump government” and vows to fight “trade aggressions” under global rules.
Flávio’s programme says ties with Argentina, the United States and Israel were pushed “to the brink of rupture” and promises to reverse that. It calls for a diplomacy “guided by professionalism and pragmatism, not by ideology”.
His plan calls joining the OECD, the Paris-based club of mostly wealthy democracies, the most urgent step for Brazil abroad. Lula’s plan instead puts sovereignty first and seeks reform of the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.04%
206,887.52
-1.04%
66,965.15
+0.33%
11,020.01
-0.21%
2,869,151
+1.45%
2,570.34
+1.55%
60,645.95
-0.22%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,887.52 | -1.04% | +21.85% | 209,066.90 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
China and the BRICS
On China, Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro turns on the BRICS bloc rather than on Beijing itself. Lula’s programme does not name China, but it promises to deepen ties with the BRICS, whose members include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
It also backs the New Development Bank, the BRICS lender based in Shanghai, and closer ties with the Global South. Flávio’s programme does not mention the BRICS and names China only in a trade context.
It promises to “negotiate with everyone who matters to Brazil, from China to the European Union”. It also seeks “effective diplomatic solutions” to sanctions by the United States, China and Europe on Brazilian products.
Crime and Public Security
On crime, both sides of Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro promise to go after the money of criminal factions, but their methods differ. Flávio’s programme says the First Capital Command (PCC) and Red Command (CV) drug gangs and other factions will be declared “narco-terrorist organisations”.
It promises five maximum-security prisons on the El Salvador model, half a million new prison places and a criminal age of 16 instead of 18. It also says criminals carrying rifles “will be shot down” and proposes chemical castration for convicted rapists and child abusers.
Lula’s programme promises a Ministry of Public Security once Congress approves his government’s policing amendment. It vows to strengthen a federal anti-crime programme launched in May 2026, which earmarks R$10 billion (about US$2 billion) for states and cities.
It also promises to keep the current controls on guns and ammunition and to keep up pressure on the finances of factions and militias. It calls the repeal of the previous government’s decrees easing access to guns “the right measure”.
The Amazon and the Environment
On the Amazon, Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro offers two zero-deforestation goals, defined in different ways. Lula’s programme reaffirms net zero deforestation by 2030, meaning forest losses are offset by regrowth, and calls the ecological transformation “a historic opportunity”.
Flávio’s programme aims to end illegal deforestation by 2029, a commitment it says his father’s government had already made. It promises tougher action against criminal groups behind illegal logging and mining, without “new obligations or unnecessary costs” for law-abiding farmers.
It also says the Amazon “belongs, above all, to Brazilians” and that forest dwellers will not be treated as criminals. Lula’s plan presents climate policy as “not a cost to pay” but a path to development.
Bolsa Família and Social Programmes
The Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro debate on welfare is about how, not whether, to keep Bolsa Família, the cash-transfer programme Lula created in 2003. Lula’s programme says it was “recreated and expanded” and promises to “maintain, improve and expand” social protection.
It also promises to strengthen Pé-de-Meia, which pays poor students to stay in secondary school. The plan credits Bolsa Família and minimum-wage rises with taking Brazil off the hunger map of the FAO, the United Nations food agency.
Flávio’s programme promises to keep existing social programmes while fixing distortions and fraud. It treats such aid as “a starting point” toward job training, work and credit, with priority for recipients in first-job and training schemes.
In his television slot on Friday 9 October, Flávio promised to keep and raise Bolsa Família, Congresso em Foco reported. On Sunday 11 October he told mayors in São Paulo that “nobody will touch social programmes”, Diário do Nordeste reported.
The 6X1 Work Week
The 6×1 work week, six working days for every day off, became the newest Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro battleground in October. An amendment already passed by the lower house would cut the legal week from 44 to 40 hours, with two rest days.
Lula’s programme promises to end the 6×1 schedule and cut the week to 40 hours “without a cut in wages”. On Monday 12 October he dared Flávio, a senator, to “press the yes or no button”, O Liberal reported.
Flávio had called the amendment opportunistic, and his programme backs letting workers and firms negotiate their own conditions. On Tuesday 13 October he said “most Brazilian workers want the end of the 6×1 schedule” and that he would vote for it.
“But we defend something even better,” he added, Brasil de Fato reported. Congresso em Foco reports that he backs it on condition of compensation for companies and more flexible hours, as our report on his reversal explains.
The Senate scheduled a first-round vote for Wednesday 14 October, and the amendment needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds. A fast-track timetable, also up for a vote, would let both rounds happen before the runoff, Congresso em Foco reported.
What It Means for US Investors and Companies
For American firms, the clearest Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro gap is the role of the state. Flávio’s plan promises privatisations, budget surpluses and OECD membership, including a gradual end to the IOF tax on foreign-exchange deals.
Lula’s plan says Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company whose shares trade in New York, should return to fuel distribution and expand refining. It also wants data centres built in Brazil to offer local-content commitments and computing capacity for the domestic market.
On critical minerals and rare earths, Lula’s plan aims to process them in Brazil instead of exporting raw materials. Flávio’s plan promises trade opening and foreign investment while avoiding “excessive dependence” in critical supply chains and technology.
On trade, Lula’s plan treats Trump’s tariffs as an aggression to resist under international rules, while Flávio’s blames an ideological foreign policy for strained ties. Our guide for US investors looks at what the runoff means for Brazilian assets.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 86.1% chance of winning at 2:11 in the morning Eastern time on Wednesday 14 October. Lula stood at 14.5%, and the Brazil Presidential Election market has drawn more than US$181 million in bets.
Flávio’s price slipped 1.3 points over the previous 24 hours, while Lula’s rose 2 points. Bets show what traders expect, not how Brazilians will vote.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.2% · Lula 13.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 15%
As of 14 October, 3:00 am ET (08:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian shares, Petrobras stock or the real, the runoff pits keeping the fiscal rule against a promise to rewrite it. If you trade with Brazil, both men promise to defend exporters against foreign tariffs, but they look for allies in different places.
If you live in or visit Brazil, the security plans matter directly, with Flávio offering harsher penalties and Lula a new ministry. Our runoff guide explains how the 25 October vote works.
What Is Not Known
Flávio’s programme does not say which 10 ministries he would close, and his televised Ministry of Prosperity is not in it. Lula’s programme criticises congressional budget amendments worth R$50 billion (about US$10 billion) in 2026 but offers no finished replacement model.
It is not known whether the Senate will pass the 6×1 amendment before the runoff, or in what form. The programmes are not legally binding, and the winner will still need Congress to pass most of these plans.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the biggest economic difference between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro?
Lula promises to keep the current fiscal framework and to keep taxing top earners to fund income-tax relief. Flávio promises a new debt-focused fiscal rule, budget surpluses, privatisations and lower taxes on energy and fuel.
Where do Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro stand on the United States?
Lula’s programme blames Trump’s tariffs for hurting Brazil and stresses sovereignty and the BRICS bloc. Flávio’s programme promises to repair ties with the United States, Argentina and Israel through pragmatic diplomacy.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro end Bolsa Família?
His programme promises to keep existing social programmes, and on 9 October he pledged to keep and raise Bolsa Família. He wants to link the payments to job training, work and credit so that families need the state less.
Do both candidates support ending the 6×1 work week?
Lula backs ending it in his programme, and Flávio said on 13 October that he will vote for the amendment. Flávio also wants compensation for companies and more flexible hours, and his programme favours deals between workers and employers.
When is the Brazil runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026. Polls close at 17:00 Brasília time, which is 16:00 US Eastern time.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), runoff government programmes, 14 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), open data: Candidatos 2026, Proposta de governo (BR), 13 October 2026; Lula government programme 2027–2030 (PDF, identical to the TSE file), 14 August 2026; Flávio Bolsonaro government programme 2027–2030 (PDF, identical to the TSE file), 14 August 2026; Congresso em Foco, Lula’s programme, 14 August 2026; Congresso em Foco, Flávio’s programme, 14 August 2026; O Liberal, programmes filed with the TSE, 4 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, Flávio TV slot, 9 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, Flávio on Bolsa Família, 9 October 2026; Diário do Nordeste, 11 October 2026; O Liberal, Lula on the 6×1 vote, 12 October 2026; O Liberal, Senate schedule, 12 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 13 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, Lula on the PL shift, 13 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, Randolfe on Flávio, 13 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, Senate fast-track vote, 13 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief