BTG/Nexus Poll: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 Election Runoff
Brazil · Politics
Key Facts
- —The result In a 2026 runoff, the BTG/Nexus poll puts Lula on 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 44%.
- —The verdict With a margin of error of two points, the pollster calls the runoff a technical tie.
- —The first round With names shown, Lula leads 40% to 35%, and Ronaldo Caiado sits third at 5%.
- —The method Nexus interviewed 2,001 voters by phone from August 7 to 9, at 95% confidence.
- —The mood The same poll finds Lula’s government approved by 46% and disapproved by 49%.
A fresh survey from a different pollster echoes what others now show: a once-comfortable Lula lead has shrunk to a near dead heat.
A new BTG/Nexus poll shows Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff turning into a coin flip. It gives President Lula 47% against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 44%, a gap thin enough to count as a tie.
The number lands as poll after poll charts the same story: Lula still ahead, but no longer safely.
What the BTG/Nexus Poll Found
The BTG/Nexus poll, released on August 10, tested a head-to-head runoff between the two front-runners. It found Lula on 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 44%, with the rest undecided or spoiling their vote.
Because the margin of error is two points, the pollster labels the race a technical tie. In plain terms, the three-point gap is too small to declare a real winner.
Inside the Runoff Numbers
The runoff scenario pits Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro one-on-one, after smaller candidates drop away. Here, 8% said they would pick no one or spoil the ballot, while 1% stayed unsure.
That leaves a slim three-point cushion for the president. Still, within the poll’s error bars, either man could plausibly be in front on election day.
The First-Round Picture
The first round tells a friendlier story for Lula. When voters saw the full field of names, he took 40% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 35%.
Behind them, Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado drew 5%, with other hopefuls stuck in low single digits. So the wider the field, the more comfortable Lula’s lead looks.
How the BTG/Nexus Poll Compares to Quaest
This is a different pollster from the Quaest survey published days later, on August 14. Quaest gave Lula a similar runoff edge, 43% to 40%, also inside the margin of error.
Two separate firms, using different methods, landed on the same shape. Therefore the picture of a tight, tie-level runoff is not a one-off quirk.
A Race That Keeps Tightening
The trend matters as much as any single number. In the prior BTG/Nexus wave in early August, the runoff sat at 46% to 45%, even closer than now.
Earlier in the year, Lula’s lead ran wider. As a result, the recent readings mark a race that has steadily narrowed toward a photo finish.
Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro is a sitting senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He has emerged as the right’s strongest 2026 contender as his father’s legal troubles mount.
For many voters, his name is a clear stand-in for the Bolsonaro brand. That inheritance is both his biggest asset and, for critics, his heaviest baggage.
Lula’s Approval Problem
The same survey hints at why the race is so close. It found Lula’s government approved by 46% but disapproved by a larger 49%.
When more people frown than nod, re-election gets harder. Even so, Lula’s personal standing keeps him narrowly ahead in the head-to-head tests.
How the Poll Was Done
Nexus, the polling firm hired by bank BTG Pactual, interviewed 2,001 voters across Brazil. It reached them by telephone between August 7 and 9, and reports a 95% confidence level.
The margin of error is two percentage points either way. Because of that, small week-to-week swings should be read with real caution.
Why the BTG/Nexus Poll Matters
Brazil votes in October 2026, so these late-summer numbers set the mood of the campaign. They tell donors, parties and rivals that the presidency is genuinely up for grabs.
For now, the message is steady rather than settled. Lula leads, Flávio Bolsonaro is within touching distance, and every fresh poll is scrutinized for the next shift.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the BTG/Nexus poll show for the 2026 runoff?
It gives President Lula 47% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 44% in a head-to-head second round. With a two-point margin of error, the pollster calls it a technical tie.
What are the first-round numbers?
With the full field of names shown, Lula leads with 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 35%. Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado is third at 5%, and other candidates trail in single digits.
How does it compare to the Quaest poll?
Quaest, a separate firm, published a poll on August 14 showing Lula ahead 43% to 40% in the runoff. Both surveys point to a tight race within the margin of error.
How was the BTG/Nexus poll conducted?
Nexus interviewed 2,001 voters by telephone from August 7 to 9, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points at 95% confidence.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Poder360; CNN Brasil; Exame; Nexus/FSB; Reuters.
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