NIGERIA · OIL
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly fell below US$90 a barrel on Tuesday 10 November 2026 for the first time since August as hopes grew for an end to the US war with Iran. It touched about US$89.2 before settling near US$91.5, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, settled near US$86.
For US readers, cheaper crude eases pressure on petrol prices after last week’s midterm elections, the US vote for Congress. For Nigeria, a major African oil producer whose budget and currency depend on crude sales, the price is still well above what its 2026 budget planned.
Key Facts
- The price Brent settled near US$91.5 a barrel on 10 November 2026 after an intraday low near US$89.2.
- The trigger President Donald Trump said on Monday 9 November the war with Iran is “going to be ending fairly soon”.
- Nigeria The 2026 budget proposal assumed US$64.85 a barrel; Nigeria’s Senate argued for US$60.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, gives 86% to WTI touching US$85 in November (as of 4:25 p.m. ET, 10 November).
- The risk No deal terms had been made public by 10 November, and attacks on ships continue.
The dip rests on diplomacy that is still uncertain. Prices can reverse as fast as they fell.
Why Brent Dipped
Trump said at the White House on Monday 9 November, after meeting the prime minister of Qatar, “We’re seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it’s going to be ending fairly soon.”
Qatar has been mediating between Washington and Tehran. Oil is again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane for much of the Gulf’s oil, though attacks on ships continue.
Officials on both sides have kept trading hostile words, so the dip rests on hope rather than on a deal.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, where traders bet real money, the November WTI market had US$2.05 million traded as of 4:25 p.m. ET on 10 November 2026. Traders gave 86% to WTI falling to US$85 at some point this month and 57% to US$80, but also 64% to a rise to US$90 and 20% to US$100.
Those prices are bets, not forecasts. The mix of falling and rising targets shows that traders expect large swings.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceCommodities — Live Market Board
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Commodities — Live Market Board
-0.59%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,038 | -1.86% | -2.04% | 4,115 | 4,156 | 4,021 | 180,002 |
| SILVER | 51.48 | -2.07% | +2.59% | 52.56 | 53.78 | 51.11 | 56,665 |
| BRENT | 92.02 | -0.59% | +43.65% | 92.57 | 92.82 | 89.15 | 36,795 |
| WTI | 86.49 | -0.41% | +43.84% | 86.85 | 86.93 | 83.88 | 260,412 |
| COPPER | 6.27 | -0.88% | +23.30% | 6.33 | 6.40 | 6.22 | 53,929 |
| LITHIUM | 59.98 | -2.23% | -2.91% | 61.35 | 60.72 | 59.70 | 186,157 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +55.73% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,227 | +3.76% | +9.92% | 1,182 | 1,231 | 1,185 | 223,724 |
| CORN | 448.00 | +1.99% | +4.25% | 439.25 | 455.50 | 438.75 | 365,903 |
| WHEAT | 591.50 | +0.60% | +10.41% | 588.00 | 599.75 | 585.25 | 90,730 |
| COFFEE | 266.75 | -2.50% | -35.68% | 273.60 | 269.00 | 265.30 | 21,949 |
| SUGAR | 18.15 | -0.33% | +27.82% | 18.21 | 18.29 | 17.92 | 81,903 |
| COCOA | 4,852 | -3.04% | -20.49% | 5,004 | 5,053 | 4,764 | 34,008 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 146.15 | +5.64% | -19.57% | 138.35 | 148.20 | 142.90 | 984 |
| COTTON | 78.28 | -0.63% | +21.72% | 78.78 | 79.90 | 78.63 | 34,150 |
| BEEF | 222.55 | +2.94% | -2.63% | 216.20 | 222.90 | 219.28 | 31,370 |
| CATTLE | 326.68 | -0.51% | -2.67% | 328.35 | 327.40 | 322.15 | 8,910 |
| USD/BRL | 5.58 | +1.35% | +4.73% | 5.51 | 5.61 | 5.51 | — |
What It Means for Nigeria
Nigeria’s executive proposed an oil price of US$64.85 a barrel for the 2026 budget, and Nigeria’s Senate argued for US$60. The final figure is not confirmed here, but Brent above US$90 sits well over either number.
Nigerian petrol is priced off crude, and the Lagos refinery of Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote is a key player, as our report on its petrol prices shows. Whether cheaper crude reaches pumps depends on that refinery’s own pricing and on the naira, Nigeria’s currency.
What It Means for You
A lower Brent usually eases fuel costs for US drivers and importers, but the move may not last. No deal terms had been made public by 10 November, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint.
Our reports on Angola’s budget under an oil slide and on Nigerian stocks show how African budgets and markets follow crude. More is on our Nigeria page.
What Is Not Known
No deal terms had been made public by 10 November, and officials on both sides have continued to trade hostile words. It is also unclear when Nigerian pump prices will respond to cheaper crude.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why Did Oil Dip Below US$90?
Traders bet that the US and Iran may end their war after President Trump said on 9 November 2026 it should end “fairly soon”. Brent touched about US$89.2 on 10 November before settling near US$91.5.
What Is Brent Crude?
Brent is the global benchmark price for oil, traded on futures contracts in London. West Texas Intermediate is the US equivalent.
Will Petrol Get Cheaper in Nigeria?
Not automatically. It depends on the Dangote refinery’s pricing and on the naira exchange rate, and no change has been announced.
What Oil Price Did Nigeria Plan On?
The executive proposed US$64.85 a barrel and the Senate argued for US$60. Brent near US$90 is well above both.
Sources: Settlement data for Brent futures (ICE Futures Europe) and WTI futures (NYMEX), 10 November 2026; Polymarket market data, 10 November 2026; Nigeria’s 2026 budget proposal and Senate debate on the oil price benchmark; remarks of US President Donald Trump at the White House, 9 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error