Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 17, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are poised for a critical session today, shaped by a series of international economic indicators that will influence investor sentiment and market dynamics.
Key international releases—including Japan’s BoJ Press Conference and Core Machinery Orders; the Eurozone’s German and ZEW Economic Sentiment; the United States’ Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production; and Canada’s Foreign Securities Purchases—are scheduled for release.
These reports will provide insights into global demand and economic health. These metrics are vital for Brazil, as they impact demand for its commodity exports (e.g., oil, iron ore, soybeans) and the stability of the Brazilian real.
With the Selic rate at 14.75%, a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 76.2%, and a projected 2025 fiscal deficit of R$104 billion, these data points will guide expectations around fiscal sustainability and monetary policy.
The ongoing IOF financial transaction tax debate adds further uncertainty, potentially affecting currency and equity markets. In Japan, the BoJ Press Conference and Core Machinery Orders for April will signal monetary policy and industrial investment trends, influencing demand for Brazilian metals and agricultural goods.
In the Eurozone, the German and ZEW Economic Sentiment indices for June will reflect business and economic confidence, affecting trade flows for Brazilian exports.
In the United States, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production for May will gauge consumer and industrial activity, critical for Brazil’s oil and agricultural exports.
In Canada, Foreign Securities Purchases for April will indicate capital flow trends, potentially impacting currency markets. These events are pivotal as the Ibovespa builds on a 1.49% gain from June 16, closing at 139,255.91 points.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian real strengthens to R$5.517, and commodity markets navigate technical and demand pressures. Today’s data will shape near-term trends amid fiscal challenges, political uncertainties, and global trade dynamics.
Economic Agenda
Japan
- 02:30 AM EST / 03:30 AM BRT – BoJ Press Conference: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Signals Japan’s monetary policy direction, impacting demand for Brazilian commodity exports like iron ore and soybeans.
- 07:50 PM EST / 08:50 PM BRT – Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 4.0%, previous 8.4%. Tracks industrial investment, signaling demand for Brazilian metals and agricultural goods.
Eurozone
- 05:00 AM EST / 06:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 34.8, previous 25.2. Measures business confidence in Germany, influencing trade sentiment for Brazilian exports.
- 05:00 AM EST / 06:00 AM BRT – ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 23.5, previous 11.6. Reflects Eurozone economic confidence, impacting demand for Brazilian commodities.
United States
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.1%. Tracks consumer spending excluding autos, driving demand for Brazilian agricultural exports.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus -0.6%, previous 0.1%. Measures overall consumer spending, influencing Brazilian oil and commodity exports.
- 09:15 AM EST / 10:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 0.0%, previous 0.0%. Gauges manufacturing activity, critical for Brazilian oil and metal demand.
Canada
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Foreign Securities Purchases (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -2.94B, previous -4.23B. Reflects capital flows, potentially impacting currency stability and commodity trade.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On June 16, 2025, Brazil’s B3 stock exchange closed with a 1.49% gain, ending at 139,255.91 points. The Ibovespa approached the 140,000 mark during intraday trading, driven by a stronger-than-expected IBC-Br Economic Activity index, which rose 0.2% in April, surpassing the 0.1% forecast and showing 4% year-over-year growth.
The services sector led gains, while agriculture and industry contracted. Easing Middle East tensions also supported a shift in global risk sentiment. The market’s focus now shifts to the Central Bank’s interest rate decision, with most economists expecting the Selic rate to remain at 14.75%.
However, some anticipate hikes if inflation expectations worsen. Fiscal policy developments, including a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit, continue to influence sentiment.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks rallied on June 16, 2025, as calm returned to Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose 56.14 points, or 0.9%, to 6,033.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.30 points, or 0.8%, to 42,515.09.
The Nasdaq composite climbed 294.39 points, or 1.5%, to 19,701.21. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 23.62 points, or 1.1%, to 2,124.13.
The rally aligned with a global rise in stock prices, though Treasury yields increased ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. Oil prices eased by 1.7%, and gold prices softened, reflecting reduced geopolitical risk perceptions.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened sharply on June 16, 2025, with USD/BRL closing at R$5.517, down 0.37%, as the U.S. dollar hit an eight-month low. Strong domestic data, including the IBC-Br index, and technical pressures drove the rally.
Fiscal uncertainties persist due to a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit, but high real interest rates at 14.75% support carry trade interest. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production may introduce volatility.
Oil Prices
Oil prices faltered on June 16, 2025, with Brent crude trading near $73.80 per barrel, down 1.7%, as supply optimism met technical resistance following a prior surge.
The decline slightly pressures Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. Today’s U.S. Industrial Production and Retail Sales will provide demand signals for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold prices steadied in the past 24 hours, with spot gold trading near $3,392 per ounce on June 17, 2025, after a volatile session that saw the metal test resistance close to $3,400.
This stability, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, bolsters Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment and U.S. Retail Sales may influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver steadied on June 16, 2025, trading near $34.60 per ounce, supported by tight supply and chart patterns hinting at upside potential.
This resilience aids Brazil’s mining exports, though momentum is limited. Today’s U.S. Industrial Production and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment will guide industrial metal demand.
Copper Prices
Copper prices balanced surplus fears against technical support on June 16, 2025, trading near $4.87 per pound. Stability supports Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s U.S. Industrial Production and Japan’s Core Machinery Orders will clarify industrial demand.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held firm on June 16, 2025, trading at $107,673.45, up 1.94%, amid mixed technical signals and cautious optimism.
This supports Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices faced pressure on June 16, 2025, with the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index trading near $91 per ton, driven by bearish momentum and weak Chinese demand.
This impacts Vale’s revenues. Today’s Japan’s Core Machinery Orders and U.S. Industrial Production will provide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s services sector grew 2.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by transport and professional services, but high borrowing costs and fiscal uncertainty slowed momentum.
The BCB Focus Market Readout projects 2025 GDP growth at 2.3% and inflation at 5.2% by year-end, with the Selic rate at 14.75% and public debt at 76.2% straining fiscal sustainability. The 2025 fiscal deficit is forecast at R$104 billion, highlighting budget risks.
Today’s U.S. Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment, and Japan’s Core Machinery Orders will shape currency stability and export demand, critical for commodity-driven industries.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern part of the United States, including major cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami. It is UTC-5, meaning it is 5 hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is used during the standard time period, typically from early November to mid-March, but in this report, it is applied as requested for consistency. It is the most common U.S. time zone due to its association with key financial and political centers.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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