Copper Market Balances Surplus Fears Against Firm Technical Support

Copper prices closed higher on June 16, 2025, with official market data showing the front-month COMEX contract settling at $4.8265 per pound, up 0.49% on the day.

This marked the largest one-day percentage gain since June 9, though copper remains 7.47% below its March record high. The price is up 21% year-to-date, reflecting a market still shaped by volatility and shifting fundamentals.

Over the last 24 hours, copper trading volumes remained robust as traders weighed a widening global surplus against persistent tightness in exchange inventories.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now forecasts a 2025 surplus of 289,000 tonnes, more than double last year’s figure. This surplus stems from rising mine output, particularly from new projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, and Russia.

ICSG expects global mine production to grow by 2.3% this year, with further gains in 2026 as new and expanded capacity comes online.Despite these surplus projections, short-term market sentiment remains cautious.

Market participants continue to monitor the impact of U.S. tariffs on global demand, which could weaken consumption in key regions. Trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, especially around U.S. monetary policy, have added to the cautious tone.

However, Chinese demand continues to show resilience, supported by government stimulus and improved retail sales data.Technical analysis of the four-hour and daily copper charts reveals a market in consolidation.

On the four-hour chart, copper holds above key support at $4.85 per pound, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 50, indicating neutral momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting a mild short-term bullish bias. Bollinger Bands remain tight, reflecting low volatility and a lack of clear direction.

The daily chart confirms this indecision. Prices remain above the $4.83–$4.85 support zone but struggle to break resistance near $4.90. The daily RSI hovers around 53, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

The MACD on the daily chart is flat, and price action continues to oscillate between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. These signals point to a market lacking conviction, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts.

The story behind the numbers is one of a market at a crossroads. Surplus fears, driven by expanding mine supply and international trade tensions, have capped upside momentum.

Yet, persistent inventory tightness and steady demand from China have prevented a sharper downturn. The technical picture matches the fundamentals: copper is consolidating, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control.

In summary, copper’s recent gains reflect a delicate balance between looming supply growth and ongoing inventory constraints. The market remains range-bound, with traders waiting for a clear direction.

They are closely watching global policy decisions, inventory flows, and macroeconomic data. For now, copper’s story is one of caution, patience, and close attention to both charts and fundamentals.

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