Gold Holds Firm as Market Eyes Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Demand

Gold prices steadied in the past 24 hours, with spot gold trading near $3,392 per ounce on June 17, 2025, after a volatile session that saw the metal test resistance close to $3,400.

Official data from Jakarta’s LogamMulia.com confirmed a local price of IDR 1,950,000 per gram, down slightly from the previous day’s peak, reflecting the global pullback after a week of gains.

This price action follows a brief rally toward $3,500, a level that has consistently triggered selling pressure as traders react to evolving geopolitical and economic signals.

The past day’s trading unfolded against a backdrop of persistent Middle East tensions and a cautious global economic outlook. The Israel-Iran conflict kept risk-off sentiment elevated, driving safe-haven flows into gold, even as global equities and oil prices fluctuated.

The World Bank’s recent downgrade of global growth prospects and ongoing uncertainty about US trade and fiscal policy further underpinned demand for gold as a reserve asset.

Central banks remain on track for a fourth consecutive year of heavy gold purchases, with Metals Focus projecting 1,000 metric tons in 2025, as institutions diversify away from the US dollar amid unpredictable US policy and growing fiscal imbalances.

Trading volumes in May averaged $363 billion per day, well above the 2024 average, though momentum cooled as prices consolidated below record highs.

ETF flows turned negative, with global gold ETFs seeing outflows in May, yet physical demand and central bank buying offset speculative selling. Futures positioning on COMEX showed a mild decline in net longs, suggesting traders have grown cautious after the recent rally.

Technicals Signal Consolidation Amid Global Uncertainty

Technical analysis of the daily chart reveals a market in consolidation. The price remains above key moving averages, including the 50-day EMA near $3,372, which has acted as support during pullbacks.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD histogram is flattening, signaling a pause in bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands show price action near the upper band, with volatility contracting after the recent surge. The Ichimoku Cloud confirms a bullish bias, as price holds above the cloud, but narrowing spans suggest the trend is losing steam.

On the four-hour chart, gold shows short-term consolidation, with support at $3,385 and resistance at $3,406. The MACD is negative, and the RSI hovers around 51, reflecting the market’s indecision.

The technical structure aligns with fundamentals: traders are booking profits after the rally, while underlying demand from central banks and safe-haven flows continue to set a floor.

The real story is one of a market balancing geopolitical risks, central bank accumulation, and shifting investor sentiment. Gold’s resilience above $3,370 reflects ongoing concerns about global stability and the sustainability of US fiscal and trade policy.

The market’s next move will likely hinge on developments in the Middle East and signals from the US Federal Reserve, as traders watch for any shift in monetary policy that could alter the metal’s appeal.

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