Iron Ore Market Faces Pressure as Technical Charts Confirm Bearish Momentum

Iron ore prices for 62% Fe fines delivered to China slipped to $94.60 per ton on June 17, 2025, according to official Singapore Exchange data. This marks a continued decline from last week, reflecting persistent oversupply and weak demand from the world’s largest steel producer.

The past 24 hours saw futures trade in a narrow range between $94.50 and $95.05, with volumes subdued and open interest steady at 312,520 contracts. Market participants remain cautious as no significant catalyst has emerged to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

The latest technical charts confirm the bearish momentum. On the four-hour chart, the price sits below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, which cluster between $94.94 and $97.93.

The Ichimoku Cloud hovers well above spot, reinforcing resistance. The MACD indicator shows a negative histogram, with both the MACD and signal lines declining, indicating sustained selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 32.26, close to oversold territory but not yet signaling a reversal. Bollinger Bands remain tight, with price action hugging the lower band, suggesting persistent downside risk and low volatility.

The daily chart paints a similar picture. The futures contract trades below all major moving averages, with the 200-day at $101.54 and the 50-day at $95.41, both acting as resistance.

The MACD remains deeply negative, and the RSI registers at 33.65, underscoring the lack of buying interest. No volume spike has accompanied the recent price action, indicating that the move stems from steady selling rather than panic or capitulation.

Iron Ore Market Faces Downward Pressure

Fundamental data from China underscores the technical weakness. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that Chinese iron ore production fell 12.2% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, but imports remain robust due to strategic stockpiling.

However, the average import price dropped 18.6% year-on-year to $98.90 per ton, reflecting softer demand from steel mills. Chinese steel output edged up just 0.4% in the same period, as Beijing’s restructuring plans for the sector continue to weigh on sentiment.

Inventories at Chinese ports remain high, and steelmakers have shifted to just-in-time buying, further dampening bulk purchases.

On the supply side, Australian and Brazilian miners have maintained high output, racing to sell before new capacity from Guinea’s Simandou project comes online later this year.

Despite weather-related disruptions early in 2025, major exporters have clawed back shipments, and no significant downward revisions to production guidance have been issued.

Macroeconomic factors add to the bearish outlook. China’s property sector remains under pressure, with real estate investment and new construction starts both posting double-digit declines year-on-year. Trade tensions and muted stimulus measures have failed to boost confidence.

In summary, iron ore prices remain under pressure, with technical and fundamental indicators aligned to the downside. The market awaits a clear catalyst, but for now, the path of least resistance remains lower.

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