Key Facts
- Wheat is the story: the wheat-tracking fund WEAT settled at US$21.57 on Thursday, 12 November 2026, down 2.75% on the day, its lowest close in at least six months and 23.0% below its 28 August peak.
- Corn broke a floor: the corn-tracking fund CORN closed at US$17.09, a fall of -1.61%, its lowest close in at least three months and 15.8% below its 1 September high.
- Soybeans held up best: the soybean-tracking fund SOYB ended at US$25.72, down 0.89%, still 1.66% higher over five sessions and 18.5% above its 12-month low.
- The cause is a mix: plentiful global wheat supplies and a stronger dollar, with the US 10-year yield at 5.10%.
- Latin America is exposed: Brazil and Argentina sell grain in dollars, so falling prices cut export income even as a firmer dollar softens the blow in local currencies.
- History offers no promise: after earlier falls this large, wheat was higher 20 sessions later in only 10 of 23 cases.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, prices an 87.5% chance of a 0.25-point Federal Reserve rate rise in December (US$29.4 million traded, 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November).
Today’s Focus
Grain prices fell across the board on Thursday, 12 November 2026, and wheat took the worst of it. The wheat-tracking fund WEAT closed at US$21.57, down 2.75%, its lowest finish in at least six months.
The main reason is supply. Traders expect plenty of wheat worldwide, and a firmer dollar and higher US yields added pressure.
Corn also fell, closing 1.61% lower near its lows.
What matters today. Cheaper grain helps food importers and hurts the farm incomes that drive Brazil’s and Argentina’s export earnings.
01 The session in one read
Picture a farmer who watches the price of his crop slide week after week. That was wheat and corn on Thursday, 12 November 2026.
Prices fell across the complex because buyers saw no reason to chase them while stocks look ample and the dollar is firm.
Wheat, the cheapest of the three to grow in many places, fell hardest, and sellers dominated the afternoon.
Our best reading, with medium confidence, is that abundant wheat and a stronger dollar are overpowering any support for prices. Soybeans held up best, though our data cannot say why. The variable to watch is the dollar index, which sits at 103.17.
02 The board
Wheat fell 2.75%, corn -1.61% and soybeans 0.89%. Each figure is a fund that tracks the crop, not the crop’s own price.
The order matters. Soybeans are the only one of the three to have risen over the past five sessions, while wheat and corn have been sliding for a month.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans (SOYB) | US$25.72 | -0.89% |
| Corn (CORN) | US$17.09 | -1.61% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | US$21.57 | -2.75% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-12. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,324.31 | -0.43% | +8.69% | 172,060.43 | 172,060 | 169,942 | — |
| IPSA | 10,625.27 | +0.69% | — | 10,552.02 | 10,646 | 10,506 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,674.32 | -0.46% | +13.64% | 72,006.05 | 72,212 | 71,603 | 163,492,928 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,452.93 | -1.35% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.64 | +1.06% | +6.62% | 5.58 | 5.65 | 5.64 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.24 | +0.11% | +1.79% | 6.23 | 6.25 | 6.23 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.58 | -0.09% | +1.63% | 18.60 | 18.60 | 18.58 | — |
| USD/CLP | 994.00 | +1.14% | +6.94% | 982.80 | 996.27 | 982.53 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,302 | -0.16% | -10.88% | 3,307 | 3,303 | 3,302 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | -0.06% | +0.92% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.41 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | +0.03% | +9.69% | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.52 | +3.32% | +3.23% | 39.22 | 40.52 | 40.52 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,185 | +3.33% | -10.93% | 5,986 | 6,185 | 6,185 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.60 | +0.86% | +72.17% | 11.50 | 11.60 | 11.60 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.47 | +0.03% | -5.59% | 60.45 | 60.59 | 60.45 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.25 | +1.62% | -9.18% | 438.17 | 445.25 | 445.25 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.65 | +3.31% | +2.09% | 7.40 | 7.65 | 7.65 | — |
03 Why it moved
First, supply, with fairly high confidence. Wheat has been sliding for a month on expectations of ample global stocks, and the fund is down 11.16% over 20 sessions.
Second, the dollar and borrowing costs, with medium confidence. The dollar index rose 0.25% on the day and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.10%, a combination that makes dollar-priced grain dearer for foreign buyers.
Third, the cross-asset picture is mixed. The S&P 500 slipped 0.35% and the gold fund fell 2.82%, which points to broad selling of assets rather than a grain-specific panic, while the oil fund rose 3.25% and did not lift grains.
04 The trend behind it
This is a continuation, not a new phase. Wheat has lost 11.16% over 20 sessions and 14.9% over 60, while corn is down 6.87% over 20 sessions and 8.9% over 60.
Soybeans are the exception. They are 8.6% below their 10 September high of 28.14, yet only 1.7% lower over 60 sessions.
Our own archive adds perspective. Wheat has fallen 11.2% in 20 sessions before; in 23 earlier cases that large it was higher 20 sessions later only 10 times (43%), with a median change of 0.0% and a worst case of 23.9% lower.
Corn fell 6.9% in 20 sessions in 52 earlier cases, and was higher 20 sessions later in 25 of them (48%), with a median of 0.7% lower. Soybeans fared best: in 61 earlier cases of a 4.5% drop, 38 (62%) were higher 20 sessions later. History is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
Brazil is the world’s biggest soybean exporter and Argentina a giant in wheat, corn and soy products, so lower prices cut the dollars flowing to farmers, port towns and national budgets. Because a stronger dollar usually weakens the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso, growers’ local-currency income is cushioned, though input costs rise too.
Mexico, a heavy corn importer, and Chile and Peru, which buy wheat, gain from cheaper cargoes.
06 The names to watch
For investors the proxies are SOYB, CORN and WEAT, which are US-listed funds that track grain futures. In São Paulo, farm-exposed listed companies and fertiliser or machinery makers tend to follow the same direction.
Corn is the one to watch: it sits only 3.8% above its 29 June low of 16.47, so any further slide tests that floor. Wheat has no nearby floor in the 12-month data, and its high of 28.00 is far above.
07 What would end it
The levels are plain. Corn must hold 16.47, soybeans have support at their January low of 21.71 and resistance at 28.14, and wheat needs to reclaim the round figure of 25 to ease the selling.
The catalysts are the dollar, US interest rates and the next crop reports. A weaker dollar or smaller crops would stop the slide.
The honest answer is that wheat has little reason to stop soon. Corn and soybeans are closer to turning points.
08 What to watch
- Dollar index: It stands at 103.17; a retreat would lift all three grains.
- US Treasury yields: The 10-year at 5.10% raises the cost of holding commodity positions.
- Soybean support: The January low of 21.71 and resistance at 28.14 frame the fund.
- Corn floor: The 29 June low of 16.47 is only 3.8% below the close; a break would mark a fresh low.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision, with US$29.4 million traded as of 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November 2026. It prices a 0.25-point rise at 87.5%, a 0.5-point or larger rise at 10.1%, no change at 1.7% and a cut at 0.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders expect higher US rates, which tend to lift the dollar and make dollar-priced grains dearer for foreign buyers.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did grains fall on Thursday, 12 November 2026?
Ample global wheat supply, a firmer dollar and rising US yields pushed prices down. Wheat fell most.
Does the dollar affect grain prices?
Yes. Grains are priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them dearer for foreign buyers and tends to depress prices.
Who gains from cheaper grain?
Importers such as Mexico, Chile and Peru, and consumers of bread and meat. Exporters such as Brazil and Argentina lose revenue.
Will prices keep falling?
History offers no promise. After similar falls, wheat was higher 20 sessions later in 10 of 23 cases and corn in 25 of 52.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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