Key Facts
- Oil rebounded on Thursday, November 12, 2026: the fund that tracks US crude (USO) rose 3.25% after President Donald Trump said Washington no longer needs a deal with Iran.
- Still far from the peak: the fund is 13.8% below its 12-month high of 169.53, set on 23 October,.
- Petrobras is the real casualty: its New York shares are 30.8% below their 23 October high of 26.16, after falling 28.46% over 20 sessions.
- Yields pushed the other way: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.10%, a headwind for commodities, yet oil still climbed.
- Latin America’s producers split: Petrobras gained +1.57% and Ecopetrol +0.13%, while Argentina’s YPF fell -0.43%.
- History is mildly encouraging: after 91 earlier falls this large, the fund was higher 20 sessions later in 52 of them (57%).
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, prices an 82.0% chance that WTI crude touches US$90 in November and 25.0% for US$100 (US$2.3 million traded, 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November).
Today’s Focus
Oil bounced on Thursday, November 12, 2026, because Washington cooled on a deal with Iran. The fund that tracks US crude, USO, closed at US$146.07.
Markets had spent weeks betting that talks over the Iran war were heading towards a deal, which would release more oil. Mr Trump’s remark that the United States no longer needs an agreement with Tehran reversed some of that bet in a single session.
The rebound is small against the fall. The fund is still 13.8% below its 23 October high, and Petrobras, Latin America’s largest listed oil company, has fallen much further than crude itself.
What matters today. Oil is now a headline-driven market: a peace hope pulls it down, a collapse in talks pushes it up, and Latin American producers feel both.
01 The session in one read
Oil rose because a peace bet was partly unwound. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States no longer needs a deal with Iran. US crude for December delivery (WTI) rose about 3% to roughly US$89 a barrel, and Brent, the international benchmark, about 3.5% to roughly US$96.
Traders who had sold oil on hopes of de-escalation bought it back. That is why a fund tracking US crude jumped 3.25% in one day.
For a reader outside the market, the lesson is simple: oil is being priced on diplomacy, not on shortages.
The best-supported reading is that Thursday was a rebound inside a correction, not a new uptrend: the fund is down 7.15% over 20 sessions even after the gain, and the 5-session change is still negative at 1.44%. We hold this view with medium confidence because the geopolitical news can reverse within hours; the variable to watch is whether talks with Iran resume or finally collapse.
02 The board
Petrobras closed at US$18.10 in New York and Ecopetrol at US$15.32, while Argentina’s YPF ended at US$37.20. These are shares of producers, not the oil price itself, and they moved far less than crude.
That gap matters. Equity investors are not treating the oil bounce as lasting, and company-specific worries, from Brazil’s politics to state-company debt, weigh on top of the commodity.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$146.07 | +3.25% |
| Petrobras | US$18.10 | +1.57% |
| Ecopetrol | US$15.32 | +0.13% |
| YPF | US$37.20 | -0.43% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-12. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,324.31 | -0.43% | +8.69% | 172,060.43 | 172,060 | 169,942 | — |
| IPSA | 10,625.27 | +0.69% | — | 10,552.02 | 10,646 | 10,506 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,674.32 | -0.46% | +13.64% | 72,006.05 | 72,212 | 71,603 | 163,492,928 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,452.93 | -1.35% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.64 | +1.06% | +6.62% | 5.58 | 5.65 | 5.64 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.24 | +0.11% | +1.79% | 6.23 | 6.25 | 6.23 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.58 | -0.09% | +1.63% | 18.60 | 18.60 | 18.58 | — |
| USD/CLP | 994.00 | +1.14% | +6.94% | 982.80 | 996.27 | 982.53 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,302 | -0.16% | -10.88% | 3,307 | 3,303 | 3,302 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | -0.06% | +0.92% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.41 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | +0.03% | +9.69% | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.52 | +3.32% | +3.23% | 39.22 | 40.52 | 40.52 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,185 | +3.33% | -10.93% | 5,986 | 6,185 | 6,185 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.60 | +0.86% | +72.17% | 11.50 | 11.60 | 11.60 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.47 | +0.03% | -5.59% | 60.45 | 60.59 | 60.45 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.25 | +1.62% | -9.18% | 438.17 | 445.25 | 445.25 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.65 | +3.31% | +2.09% | 7.40 | 7.65 | 7.65 | — |
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest: Iran diplomacy. Mr Trump’s statement removed some of the peace premium that had pulled oil down since late October, and the market reacted at once.
Second: stocks of oil in the United States. The US Energy Information Administration (eia.gov) reported commercial crude stocks up 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week to 6 November, against a forecast draw of 1.1 million in the RT economic calendar. Gasoline stocks rose 1.8 million barrels and distillates (diesel and heating oil) 4.1 million, which tempers the rally.
Third, the conflicting signals. The dollar index is not the cause here; it edged up 0.25% to 103.17 and the US 10-year yield rose to 5.10%, both normally negative for oil, while the S&P 500 fell 0.35% and the VIX fear gauge rose 6.92% to 18.70.
So geopolitics outweighed the macro backdrop on the day. We are fairly sure of that ranking, around 70% confident, because the timing of the Trump remarks matches the move and the usual drivers pointed the other way.
04 The trend behind it
The fund hit its 12-month high of 169.53 on 23 October and has retreated 13.8% since. Over 60 sessions it is still up 11.6%, so the longer run is higher, while the recent month is lower.
This looks like a continuation of an October-to-November pullback, with Thursday as a pause.
Our own history since 2007 gives some perspective. After 91 earlier falls of this size, the fund was higher 20 sessions later in 52 cases (57%), with a median gain of 1.2% but a worst case of a 50.1% drop; history is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
Brazil is the clearest loser from the slide in the equity. Petrobras is down 28.46% in 20 sessions and 30.8% below its October high, even though crude has fallen only 7.15% over the same stretch; on Thursday its New York shares rose 1.57% to US$18.10.
Colombia’s Ecopetrol is 16.1% below its 15 September high of 18.26 and has lost 13.45% in 20 sessions, a reminder that Bogotá’s budget leans on oil. Argentina’s YPF slipped only 0.43% on Thursday.
Guyana’s boom, led by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek block, an offshore oil field, matters more for volume than for Thursday’s price.
06 The names to watch
Petrobras is the stress test. Its shares have fallen far more than crude, so investors are pricing company-specific worries on top of the commodity.
Ecopetrol and YPF are the other two Latin American names to follow, because both are tied to the oil price but trade on different local stories.
07 What would end it
The decisive event is Iran: renewed talks would push oil down again, while a clear breakdown would send it back towards the 12-month high of 169.53. The 20-session low area, and below that the 66.17 low, sit far beneath and would need a genuine collapse in demand to be tested.
Next in the calendar are the weekly US inventory reports, and any further statement from Washington or Tehran. Does the pullback stop? Not until the peace-or-war question is settled, and on Thursday’s evidence it is not.
08 What to watch
- Iran diplomacy: Any restart or breakdown of talks is the single biggest swing factor for oil.
- US inventories: Weekly crude and fuel builds can cap rallies; draws would support them.
- Treasury yields: The 10-year at 5.10% is a headwind for commodities if it keeps rising.
- Petrobras 18.10 area and its 20-session slide: Whether the company stabilises after losing 28.46% in 20 sessions.
- Calendar: The EIA’s crude oil imports change (previous +1.179 million barrels) and Cushing crude stocks change (Cushing is the Oklahoma oil-storage hub; previous +0.28 million) were also due on 12 November; actual figures were not in the RT economic calendar when we closed.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on WTI crude oil prices in November 2026, with US$2.3 million traded as of 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November 2026. It prices an 82.0% chance of touching US$90, 42.5% for US$95, 25.0% for US$100 and 12.5% for US$105, and a 72.5% chance of dipping to US$85.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders expect oil to stay volatile, with a high chance of a touch of US$90 this month.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil rise on Thursday, November 12, 2026?
Washington said it no longer needs a deal with Iran, which reversed part of the peace bet that had pulled oil down.
Is USO the price of oil?
No. USO is a fund that tracks US crude futures, so it follows oil closely but is not the spot price itself.
Why is Petrobras down more than oil?
It has fallen 28.46% in 20 sessions against 7.15% for the crude-tracking fund, so company-specific worries are adding to the commodity move.
Does history say oil will keep rising?
After 91 earlier falls this large, it was higher 20 sessions later in 57% of cases, but history is not a forecast.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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