Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 24, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open Wednesday in extremely thin, pre-holiday trading on Christmas Eve, with many global centers closed or closing early.
The Ibovespa holds near the 160,000 level after a strong 1.46% rally yesterday, supported by cooling inflation (mid-December IPCA-15 at 4.41% YoY, easing from 4.50% and within the tolerance band) and broad gains in banking and utilities.
Key integrated developments: Brazil’s disinflation continues but faces a credibility test amid persistent fiscal pressures, with the interest bill projected to remain near 8% of GDP in 2025 due to the high 15% Selic rate and sizeable debt.
Itaú Unibanco’s quiet sale of retail banking operations in Colombia and Panama (including ~267,000 customers, COP 6.5T in loans) to focus on higher-return corporate activities signals a broader regional banking trend toward capital discipline and away from low-yield retail cross-border exposure.
Meanwhile, the Alcântara rocket explosion (HANBIT-Nano mission failure shortly after liftoff) tests Brazil‘s ambitions to rebuild its space launch industry at the equatorial site, raising questions about investor confidence and technical reliability following historical setbacks.
Economic Agenda for December 24, 2025
Due to Christmas Eve and numerous holidays (including Brazil – Christmas Eve, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, UK – early close at 12:30, US – early close at 13:00, among others), the agenda is very light with limited market-moving data. Most regional and global activity is subdued in thin holiday trading.
Brazil
- No major releases scheduled today (Holiday – Christmas Eve).
Implication: Markets operate in low liquidity; focus remains on yesterday’s inflation relief and ongoing fiscal/credibility dynamics.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Nov) Act: N/A | Cons: 2.70% | Prev: 2.60%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Nov) Act: N/A | Cons: N/A | Prev: 2.60%
Implication: Minor labor market update; supports peso carry trade if stable, but limited impact amid holiday.
United States
(Selected key releases in ET / BRT +2 hours)
- 10:30 AM BRT – 7-Year Note Auction Act: N/A | Cons: N/A | Prev: 3.781%
- 11:30 AM BRT – 4-Week Bill Auction Act: N/A | Cons: N/A | Prev: 3.585%
- 11:30 AM BRT – 8-Week Bill Auction Act: N/A | Cons: N/A | Prev: 3.580%
Implication: Treasury auctions gauge funding conditions in early-close session; influence on dollar and yields is muted by holidays.
Other countries
- Japan: Leading Index (Nov) at 00:00 AM BRT (Act: 109.8 | Cons: 110.0 | Prev: 108.6) – minor sentiment indicator.
- Various minor releases (e.g., USD MBA Mortgage data at 07:00 AM BRT, CAD Budget Balance at 11:00 AM BRT).
- No major releases in Peru, Colombia, Argentina, Chile.
Why These Events Matter: Extremely limited data flow today due to Christmas Eve holidays across major economies; any movement will stem from yesterday’s momentum, commodity trends, and year-end positioning rather than fresh catalysts. Brazil’s fiscal and inflation credibility remain key local themes.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa surged 1.46% to close at 160,456 points on December 23, reclaiming the 160,000 level in a pre-holiday rally.
Broad gains in banking and utilities sectors drove performance, with notable advances in stocks like Rede D’Or (+3.1%), Sabesp (+3.0%), and Ambev (+2.4%).
Mid-December inflation preview at 4.41% YoY eased pressures and supported resilience, despite a 2.8% drop in Petrobras amid residual labor uncertainty.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed at record highs: S&P 500 +0.5% to 6,909.79, Dow +0.2% to 48,442.41, Nasdaq +0.6% to 23,561.84.
Robust Q3 GDP (4.3%) and consumer spending underpinned gains, with standout performers including Nvidia (+3%) and Novo Nordisk (+7.3%) after FDA approval of oral Wegovy.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Peso surged to multi-month highs near 17.93–17.95/USD, with equities shining (S&P/BMV IPC up significantly YTD >30%), driven by carry appeal, prudent Banxico policy, and dollar softness.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Markets exhibited stability amid Milei reforms, with MERVAL near record highs above 3.14 million points and exchange rates steady (official ~1,450–1,452 ARS/USD, narrowed spreads).
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Markets maintained strength approaching year-end, with peso up significantly YTD (near 3,756–3,759 COP/USD) and COLCAP at multi-year highs above 2,000 points, supported by financials and commodities.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Markets showed strength, with IPSA at ~10,403 points (70th record), peso firm near 910/USD, boosted by copper rally and prudent policies.
Commodity Markets
- Oil ~$58/bbl area (recent +2.4% momentum)
- Gold asserting dominance with strong 2025 gains (>70%)
- Silver elevated
- Copper rally (briefly >$12,000/ton)
- Iron Ore steady
Brazilian Real
Gained ground, closing ~R$5.52 (USD/BRL -1.24%) amid disinflation (4.41% preview) and dollar softness (DXY ~97.88). Consolidates near 5.50–5.55 in year-end thin trading.
Cryptocurrencies
Markets consolidate in holiday-thinned liquidity with ETF outflows; Bitcoin near $87,000–$88,000 (down from $126,000 peak), Ethereum ~$2,930–$3,000; gold asserts dominance with BTC/gold ratio at historic lows.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
• Mid-December inflation cools to 4.41% YoY, supporting monetary stability expectations but credibility test persists.
• Interest bill remains burdensome, near 8% of GDP in 2025, crowding out investment amid high Selic.
• Alcântara rocket explosion (HANBIT-Nano failure) challenges Brazil’s space launch rebuilding efforts.
Ibovespa futures point to quiet consolidation near 160,000 in extremely thin Christmas Eve trading, balancing disinflation support, commodity strength, and global holiday mood against fiscal pressures and low liquidity.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.56%
184,853.65
+0.56%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,097.87
+0.38%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,853.65 | +0.56% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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