Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 29, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open Monday in thin year-end trading, with the Ibovespa holding near 161,000 after a modest rebound on Friday amid persistent 2026 election politics, sustained rate-cut expectations, and mixed global commodity cues.
Economic Agenda for December 29, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.15% Prev: 0.27%
- 06:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout
- 12:30 PM BRT – CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Nov) Cons: 72.80K Prev: 85.15K
Implication: The IGP-M, a key wholesale inflation gauge often used for rent and contract adjustments, is expected to show further deceleration, supporting disinflation narrative and potential Selic easing path.
The BCB Focus Readout aggregates analyst expectations, providing clues on market consensus shifts ahead of monetary policy.
November CAGED formal job creation data, if softer than prior, may temper optimism on labor market resilience amid high rates, favoring defensive positioning; stronger prints reinforce cyclical recovery bets.
Mexico
- (No major releases scheduled)
Peru
- (No major releases scheduled)
Colombia
- (No major releases scheduled)
United States
- 10:00 AM BRT – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 1.0% Prev: 1.9%
- 10:00 AM BRT – Pending Home Sales Index (Nov) Prev: 76.3
- 10:30 AM BRT – Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Dec) Prev: -10.4
- 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories Cons: -2.000M Prev: -1.274M
(and other EIA weekly oil data releases)
Implication: Softer pending home sales could signal cooling U.S. housing demand, easing inflationary pressures and supporting global risk appetite. Dallas Fed manufacturing gauge remaining negative highlights regional softness.
Oil inventory drawdowns, if confirmed, may provide short-term support to energy prices amid oversupply concerns; builds would reinforce bearish tilt.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s IGP-M and CAGED releases offer fresh insights into inflation trajectory and labor market health, critical for calibrating Selic cut expectations and fiscal credibility into 2026 politics.
U.S. housing, manufacturing, and oil data influence dollar strength, Treasury yields, and commodity flows in thin year-end liquidity, setting the tone for EM assets.
Brazil’s Markets on Friday
The Ibovespa closed at 160,896.64, up 0.27%, with a daily range of 159,358.93–160,913.32 on light volume (R$14.99 billion).
Post-Christmas thin liquidity amplified quick moves from 2026 politics headlines (including Flávio Bolsonaro signaling as a competitive but polarizing pre-candidate), while rate-cut bets (Selic at 15%, potential March start) steadied equities despite cooling momentum. Global cues were mixed, with precious metals strong but oil and iron ore softer.
U.S. Markets on Friday
Flat close in holiday-thinned session: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow -0.04%, Nasdaq -0.09%. All major indexes posted weekly gains, capping a strong year (S&P 500 +18%, Nasdaq +22%). Investors focused on year-end positioning ahead of Fed minutes.
Mexico’s Market on Friday
The peso remained firm near 17.9111 USD/MXN, with the IPC at record highs near 70,809.57 (weekly +4.75%). Thin liquidity risks amplify micro-moves, with elevated momentum suggesting potential pullbacks.
Argentina’s Market on Friday
Dollar spreads tightened (blue premium ~3.7–4.9%), with S&P Merval down 0.28% to 3,112,379.72 amid Budget 2026 digestion and thin liquidity.
Colombia’s Market on Friday
The peso firmed (USD/COP around 3,693), supported by year-end remittances and government supply. COLCAP paused near highs at 2,081.6 with softened momentum and reduced turnover.
Chile’s Market on Friday
USD/CLP tested the 900 line (closing near 900.80 low, then 906–907), while S&P IPSA rebounded 0.93% to 10,483.15, holding near records.
Oil
Brent near $60.9/bbl and WTI around $57.3, attempting modest rebound (~1%) but capped by oversupply (projected 2026 surplus ~3.8M bpd) and geopolitical/political factors; thin liquidity limits sustained moves.
Gold
Pullback from record highs near $4,549/oz, trading around $4,455–$4,487/oz (down ~1.7%), as traders cashed out amid shifting risk mood (e.g., Ukraine peace-talk headlines easing safe-haven demand).
Silver
Spiked to $83.92/oz (84% move from recent $69.44 levels) before reversing to ~$75.8/oz, underscoring extreme thin-market volatility amid ETF demand, supply deficits, and year-end positioning.
Copper
Sharp rally with LME 3-month at ~$12,875/t (up 5.86%, record touch $12,960/t) as Shanghai surge (to 101,480 yuan/t) forced catch-up, driven by China feedstock tightness and tariff/inventory dynamics.
Iron Ore
(From context: ended the week softer, with port inventories around 148.8 million tonnes, no full boom despite restocking signals.)
Brazilian Real
The real opens steady near 5.54 USD/BRL (Friday close 5.5451, ICE Saturday 5.5434), supported by BCB dollar supply ($2.0bn auctions) offsetting election jitters (Flávio Bolsonaro news briefly pressured to 5.5680) and year-end dividend/tax flows.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rebounded near $89,595 (+2.16%) in thin holiday liquidity, with majors green but ETF outflows persisting and tape remaining fragile.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
• Azul’s 40% Plunge Exposes the Dilution Shock Behind Its Chapter 11 Plan: Azul shares plunged 40% as the market digested significant dilution risks tied to its restructuring/Chapter 11 strategy.
Ibovespa futures point to consolidation near 161,000, balancing rate-cut support and commodity pockets of strength against thin liquidity, 2026 political risks, and fiscal skepticism unless U.S. data surprises positively.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.14%
184,937.97
-0.14%
65,473.16
+0.91%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,062,910
-1.39%
2,535.71
+1.86%
59,719.97
+0.50%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,937.97 | -0.14% | +21.85% | 185,205.09 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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