Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 26, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open Friday in thin holiday trading, with the Ibovespa near 160,500 after a strong 1.46% surge on Tuesday reclaiming the 160,000 level amid disinflation and global risk-on flows.
Itaú Unibanco’s strategic transfer of retail operations in Colombia and Panama to Banco de Bogotá signals a broader regional banking trend.
Banks are increasingly exiting low-return retail segments to focus on higher-profit corporate areas. This shift could reshape competition and credit dynamics across Latin America. Brazil heads into 2026 facing several key headwinds.
These include a congressional probe into pension fraud tied to alleged irregular deductions and links to figures close to the president’s family. There are also escalating budget power struggles over R$61 billion in parliamentary earmarks amid tight fiscal targets.
In addition, a bank shock has emerged from the central bank’s liquidation of Banco Master amid fraud risks and potential losses to state entities—a development our reporting has tracked as part of escalating institutional risk headlines and regulatory tensions that have weighed on market sentiment since late December. These issues test fiscal credibility, supervision, and investor sentiment.
Economic Agenda for December 26, 2025
Brazil
- 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows (Dec) Prev: -1.601B
Implication: Recent inflows support BRL stability amid carry appeal; continued outflows could pressure the currency and highlight external vulnerabilities in thin year-end liquidity.
Mexico
- (No major releases scheduled)
Peru
- (No major releases scheduled)
Colombia
- (No major releases scheduled)
United States
- 13:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Prev: 406
- 13:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Prev: 542
Implication: Rising rig counts signal potential U.S. supply growth, pressuring oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like BRL; declines support energy complex and risk assets.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s FX flows provide insight into capital dynamics amid disinflation and Selic carry, while U.S. rig counts influence global energy supply expectations and commodity sentiment in a low-volume holiday period.
Brazil’s Markets on Tuesday
The Ibovespa surged 1.46% to 160,456 points on December 23, driven by broad gains in banking and utilities amid controlled mid-December inflation at 4.41% easing pressures and reinforcing monetary stability expectations.
Global equities advanced with U.S. indices hitting records on robust GDP data, supporting Brazilian assets despite lingering labor issues at Petrobras.
U.S. Markets on Tuesday
U.S. markets closed at record highs. S&P 500 +0.5% to new all-time high, Nasdaq +0.6%, Dow +0.2%.
Big tech like Nvidia and Alphabet led, with Novo Nordisk jumping 7.3% on FDA approval of pill-version Wegovy. Strong Q3 GDP (4.3%) offset mixed signals like declining consumer confidence.
Mexico’s Market on Tuesday
The peso held a tight range near 17.95 USD/MXN amid low volumes and soft dollar. S&P/BMV IPC pushed fresh records to 65,616.43, up 0.03% on December 24, with gains in Corporativo Fragua and Grupo Kuo.
Argentina’s Market on Tuesday
Markets drifted in holiday calm, with peso near 1,450 official, blue around 1,505, and tight premium spreads. S&P Merval up 0.2% to 3,121,145 after profit-taking, with selective gains in Transener, Loma Negra, and Telecom.
Colombia’s Market on Tuesday
Colombia’s peso faced a holiday reality check following recent rally.
Chile’s Market on Tuesday
USD/CLP pressed near 901 on softer dollar and thin liquidity. IPSA hovered around 10,387, cooling slightly after strong 2025 gains.
Oil
Oil steadied in thin holiday volumes. Brent near $61.80/bbl, WTI near $58.33/bbl, supported by supply headlines like Venezuelan restrictions but capped by inventory builds.
Gold
Gold traded near record highs around $2,600–$2,700/oz amid momentum flows, softer dollar, ETF inflows, and geopolitics.
Silver
Silver traded in the mid-$30s/oz range, driven by momentum, thin liquidity, lower rate expectations, and industrial demand.
Copper
Copper’s late-December breakout held near $5.78/lb, testing scarcity from supply disruptions, tariff risks, and demand from AI/data centers and electrification.
Iron Ore
Iron ore in year-end standoff, with 62% Fe around $107/t amid tight fines but rising port stocks capping upside.
Brazilian Real
The real opens near 5.52 USD/BRL after gaining ground on Tuesday, supported by disinflation at 4.41%, Selic carry appeal, and dollar softness, though fiscal risks limit further upside.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fluctuated in the $40,000–$60,000 range, facing ETF outflows and options pressure, amid surging gold momentum.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
- No major new company-specific developments highlighted in the latest updates beyond broader market resilience in banking/utilities and ongoing Petrobras labor context.
Ibovespa futures point to cautious consolidation near 160,000–161,000, balancing disinflation support against fiscal/political headwinds and thin holiday liquidity unless external surprises emerge.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.56%
184,853.65
+0.56%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,097.87
+0.38%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,853.65 | +0.56% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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