Brazil’s External Balances Worsen Despite Strong Export Performance
Brazil’s Central Bank reported a current account deficit of $2.25 billion in March 2025. This figure comes after a volatile start to the year, with February’s deficit reaching $8.76 billion.
The March result reflects a rebound in Brazil’s trade surplus, which rose 13.8% year-on-year to $8.15 billion. Exports grew 5.5% to $29.18 billion, driven by a 10.1% jump in manufactured goods and a 16% surge in agricultural shipments.
Imports increased 2.6%, led by manufacturing and agricultural goods. Despite the strong trade surplus, Brazil’s external accounts show underlying weaknesses.
The services deficit widened, and foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped to $5.99 billion in March, its lowest in three months and well below February’s $9.3 billion.
Over the first quarter, FDI inflows failed to fully offset the current account gap, highlighting a shift from previous years when foreign capital consistently covered external shortfalls.
Official projections for 2025 expect the current account deficit to reach $62 billion, or 2.8% of GDP. This outlook factors in slower export growth, rising imports of capital and intermediate goods, and a larger services deficit.
The Central Bank anticipates FDI inflows of $70 billion, but notes increased risks from global trade tensions and softer commodity prices. Brazil’s foreign reserves remain robust, offering a buffer against external shocks.
However, the narrowing margin between FDI and the current account deficit signals a more fragile external position. Business leaders and investors now face a landscape where Brazil’s trade strength must balance against persistent service and income outflows.
The country’s ability to sustain capital inflows will shape its economic stability through 2025.
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+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
65,110.57
+0.26%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,820,733
+1.37%
2,559.60
+0.03%
60,410.88
-0.42%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
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