Published Friday, 23 October, 7:30 p.m. ET · Source: Agência Brasil, RT
Key Facts
—The stocks. The Ibovespa rose 0.47% to 205,082.56 points on Friday.
—The real. The dollar fell about 0.9% to R$4.993, below R$5 again.
—The week. Stocks ended the week 0.17% lower, but are up 10.06% in October.
—The vote. Brazil holds its presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.9% and Lula at 23.5% to win (23 October 2026, 7:24 p.m. ET).
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 25%
As of 23 October, 7:20 pm ET (00:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s main stock index rose 0.47% and the real strengthened on Friday, 23 October, the last trading day before Sunday’s presidential runoff. The dollar closed at R$4.993 (about 0.9% lower), back below R$5, according to Agência Brasil.
It was the final session before the vote, and the index traded between 203,428 and 205,757 points during the day. The wider Brazil economy story this week was the countdown to the runoff.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil (Selic, Focus survey, PTAX), IBGE (IPCA), RT market data (market quotes). Checked Oct 23, 23:30 UTC.
How Brazilian Markets Closed
The Ibovespa, the main index of the B3 exchange in São Paulo, closed at 205,082.56 points. Trading volume was R$30.7 billion (about US$6.1 billion at R$4.993), according to Agência Brasil.
The index fell 0.17% over the week, from 205,430 on 16 October. It is still up 10.06% in October and 27.28% so far in 2026, based on RT closing data.
The dollar slid to a low of R$4.989 late in the session and closed at R$4.993 at the Brazilian market close. A stronger real means each real is worth more US dollars, which lifts the dollar value of Brazilian stocks and bonds for US investors.
Our dollar-to-real guide explains how the rate is set.
What the Runoff Is About
Voters choose between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party on Sunday. The electoral court, the TSE, will publish official results after polls close.
Investors are following the contest and are watching the candidates’ plans for spending and taxes. Our Brazil stock market guide explains how the index works and what moves it.
In Plain English
- Ibovespa: the main share-price index of Brazil’s stock exchange.
- Runoff: the second round between the top two candidates.
- Real: Brazil’s currency. A lower dollar rate means a stronger real.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, “Brazil Presidential Election”: Flávio Bolsonaro 76.9%, Lula 23.5% (about US$193 million traded).
- Polymarket, second-round margin of victory: Bolsonaro by less than 4 points 41.5%, by 4 to 8 points 31.5%, Lula by less than 4 points 20.5% (about US$5.2 million traded).
Prices as of 7:24 p.m. ET, 23 October 2026. Prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.47%
205,082.56
+0.47%
69,678.08
-0.30%
10,746.36
-0.31%
3,017,221
—
2,540.10
+0.46%
57,021.19
+0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
What It Means for US Readers
Dollar investors in Brazil’s ADRs, such as Petrobras (PBR), Vale (VALE), Itaú (ITUB) and Nubank (NU), or in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), face a gap risk when markets reopen on Monday. Brazilian exchanges are closed over the weekend, so the first price reaction to the result comes on 26 October.
Travellers and expats get a better exchange rate while the real holds near R$5 per dollar. A sharp move after the vote could change that quickly in either direction.
What Is Not Known
The result of Sunday’s vote and how markets will react are unknown. Official numbers come only from the TSE, and betting prices can change within minutes.
What to Watch Next
- Sunday 25 October: presidential runoff, results published by the TSE.
- Monday 26 October: first B3 session after the result.
- Wednesday 4 November, 4:30 p.m. ET: the central bank’s rate committee announces its next interest-rate decision.
Sources
Agência Brasil, market close · Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · RT closing data · Polymarket
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Brazilian dollar fall below R$5?
Yes. The dollar closed at R$4.993 on Friday, 23 October, about 0.9% lower, after touching R$4.989 during the session, according to Agência Brasil.
How did the Ibovespa close on 23 October?
The Ibovespa closed at 205,082.56 points, up 0.47%. It is down 0.17% for the week, up 10.06% in October and up 27.28% in 2026.
When is the Brazil presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday, 25 October 2026, between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Official results come from the electoral court, the TSE.
How does the runoff affect US investors?
The result can move the real, Brazilian stocks and bonds, and ADRs such as PBR and VALE. Brazilian markets reopen on Monday, 26 October.