BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 10:45 a.m. ET · Source: Alfa Inteligência
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Tuesday 20 October, the Alfa Inteligência polling institute published a new runoff survey with Flávio narrowly ahead.
- The numbers Flávio has 51.5% of valid votes and Lula 48.5%, while total votes read 48.8% to 45.9%, with a 1.9-point margin of error.
- Fieldwork 2,700 voters were interviewed in person from 15 to 19 October, under electoral court registration BR-00820/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 10:18 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 20 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Exame set the result against Alfa’s July poll, which had Lula ahead 48% to 41%, but we have not seen a like-for-like comparison.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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A new Brazil election 2026 survey shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula by 51.5% to 48.5% of valid votes. The Alfa Inteligência institute published it on Tuesday 20 October, and Brazilian outlets called the race a technical tie.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. This is one of several Brazil election polls released this week, and we list each pollster in our tracker.
What the Alfa Poll Found
Alfa Inteligência interviewed 2,700 voters in person from 15 to 19 October, with a margin of error of 1.9 points and 95% confidence, Exame reported. The survey is registered with Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) under BR-00820/2026, and BM&C News reported that the institute funded it.
In total votes, Flávio has 48.8% and Lula 45.9%, with 3.5% blank, null or for neither and 1.8% undecided, according to Exame. Counting only valid votes, the split becomes 51.5% to 48.5%.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral authority will announce, while total votes count every voter interviewed.
A technical tie means the gap is small enough that sampling error could explain it. Money Times and other outlets used that label for the Alfa result, given its 1.9-point margin of error, and we treat it the same way.
Rejection and Government Approval
Alfa found that 46% of voters reject Lula and 45% reject Flávio, Exame reported. Rejection counts voters who say they would never vote for a candidate, so a gap of one point leaves little room between them.
The same survey found that 50% of voters disapprove of Lula’s way of governing and that 43% rate his government poor or very poor, according to Exame. Those figures help explain why a sitting president is trailing in a close race.
How the Poll Fits the Race
Our Brazil runoff poll tracker lists the latest poll of each pollster, and the Alfa result of 51.5% to 48.5% sits close to the tracker average of 51.1% to 48.9% before this survey was added. The first round took place on 4 October.
Polls published in the final week give the closest read of opinion before the vote. Each one measures the days of its own interviews and does not forecast the result.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. Currency and bond moves often follow new polls within hours.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 3-point lead in valid votes means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 10:18 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$188.9 million in bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 20 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Exame set this survey against Alfa’s July poll, in which Lula led 48% to 41%, but the two surveys were months apart and we have no like-for-like comparison, so we cannot say how fast the race moved. It is not known how many undecided voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go.
Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. Margins of error apply to each number separately.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the new Alfa Inteligência runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.5% of valid votes to 48.5% for Lula. In total votes the split is 48.8% to 45.9%.
What is the margin of error of the Alfa poll?
The margin of error is 1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The poll interviewed 2,700 voters in person between 15 and 19 October.
Who paid for the Alfa Inteligência poll?
The institute itself funded the survey, according to BM&C News. It is registered with the electoral court (TSE) under BR-00820/2026.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What do prediction markets say about the runoff?
On Polymarket, traders gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance and Lula a 22.5% chance at 10:18 a.m. ET on 20 October. These prices are bets, not polls.
Sources: Exame, 20 October 2026; BM&C News, 20 October 2026; Money Times, 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief