PoderData Poll Has Flávio 51%, Lula 49%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Thursday, 22 October, morning ET · Source: PoderData/Aya (Poder360)
Key Facts
- What happened On Thursday 22 October, the PoderData polling institute published a new runoff survey showing a technical tie between the two candidates.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, with a 1.6-point margin of error.
- The change The previous PoderData wave, with interviews on 16 to 18 October, had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48%.
- Turnout 95% of voters say they will certainly vote on Sunday 25 October.
- Still open The interviews ended on Wednesday 21 October, so they miss the last four days of campaigning.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (22 October, 7:35 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 22%), as of 22 October, 8:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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A new PoderData/Aya poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 51% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 49%. PoderData published it on the morning of Thursday 22 October, and the gap is a technical tie in the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists each survey so readers can compare pollsters.
What the New PoderData Poll Found
PoderData interviewed 4,000 voters from Monday 19 to Wednesday 21 October, Poder360 reported. The margin of error is 1.6 points at a 95% confidence level, and the poll carries electoral court (TSE) registration BR-07926/2026.
PoderData belongs to the Brazilian news site Poder360. Valid votes leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, and on that measure Flávio leads Lula by 2 points.
A Three-Day Move Inside the Margin
The previous PoderData wave, with interviews from 16 to 18 October, had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48%, ND Mais reported. Flávio lost one point and Lula gained one.
Poder360 itself says the change falls within the margin of error. A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size.
Voters Say They Are Decided and Will Turn Out
Some 95% of voters say they will certainly vote on Sunday, Poder360 reported. Stated turnout is high on both sides of the race.
On loyalty, 97% of Flávio’s voters say they will not change their choice, against 94% of Lula’s, Poder360 reported.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. A 2-point gap sits inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. High stated turnout means the result will rest on who actually reaches the polling station.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (22 October, 7:35 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$191.3 million in bets. See our Brazil election odds page for the live prices.
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, the last trades put a Flávio win by 3 to 6 points at 38%, a Flávio win by 0 to 3 points at 35% and a Lula win by 0 to 3 points at 15% (22 October, 7:35 a.m. ET).
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.2% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 22 October, 8:20 am ET (13:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We show valid votes only, the measure PoderData puts in its headline. Interviews ended on Wednesday 21 October, so they cannot capture any shift from the final days of the campaign.
It is not known how many undecided or reluctant voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51% of valid votes to 49% for Lula in the PoderData/Aya poll published on Thursday 22 October. The two-point gap is inside the 1.6-point margin of error, so the race is a technical tie.
When was the PoderData/Aya poll taken?
PoderData interviewed 4,000 voters from Monday 19 October to Wednesday 21 October. It published the results on the morning of Thursday 22 October.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 1.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) as BR-07926/2026.
How did this poll change from the previous one?
The previous PoderData wave, with interviews from 16 to 18 October, had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% of valid votes. Flávio lost one point and Lula gained one.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, three days after this poll was published. The winner becomes president for a four-year term.
Sources: Poder360 / PoderData, 22 October 2026; Poder360, 22 October 2026; Poder360, 22 October 2026; SBT News, 22 October 2026; ND Mais, 22 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 22 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief