BRAZIL · MARKETS
Key Facts
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives 70.2% to no Selic change in November, 27.5% to a cut (29 October, 2:36 p.m. ET).
- What is happening Listed Brazilian firms lost BRL 734 billion (about US$133 billion) on Monday, 26 October, after Lula’s re-election.
- Why it matters Petrobras and Itaú shares trade in New York, so American holders felt the fall in dollars.
- The numbers Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 13.88% Monday and was 16.6% below its 23 October close Wednesday.
- Who is who Lula, of the left-leaning Workers’ Party, beat conservative Flávio Bolsonaro in the 25 October runoff.
- What to watch Copom, the central bank’s rate panel, meets 3 and 4 November; the Selic benchmark rate is 13.75%.
- What it means for you Dollar investors in Brazilian shares saw the listed total fall about 20% in dollars, while a weaker real cheapens Brazil trips.
Brazil’s listed companies lost about US$133 billion in one day after Lula’s re-election. The slide had not stopped by Wednesday.
What Happened
Brazil’s listed companies lost BRL 734 billion (about US$133 billion) in market value on Monday, 26 October. It was the first trading day after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election on Sunday, 25 October.
Elos Ayta, a Brazilian financial-data consultancy, counted a 12.91% fall from BRL 5.684 trillion (US$1.03 trillion) on Friday, 23 October. The total dropped to BRL 4.950 trillion (US$900 billion), converted at the central bank’s 26 October rate of 5.5007 reais per dollar.
The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo exchange B3, fell 13.88% to 176,608 points on Monday. A circuit breaker, an automatic trading halt, stopped trading for the first time since March 2020.
The index closed at 171,006 on Wednesday, 28 October, about 16.6% below Friday’s close of 205,083. The central bank’s dollar rate rose from 5.04 reais on 23 October to 5.50 on Monday, then 5.34 on Wednesday.
Who Lost Most on Monday
Banks fell hardest on Monday: Banco do Brasil, a state-controlled lender, dropped 29.33%, and BTG Pactual, an investment bank, lost 24.83%. Bradesco, a large private lender, fell 21.70%, and Itaú Unibanco, another, fell 13.66%.
Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, fell 6.81% on its voting shares and 8.18% on its preferred shares. Exporters bucked the trend, with miner Vale up 4.01%, as a weaker real lifts the value of dollar sales.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.16%
169,029.02
-1.16%
69,182.39
-0.76%
10,545.23
-1.24%
2,848,945
—
2,485.00
-0.83%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 169,029.02 | -1.16% | +19.56% | 171,006.10 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
Why It Matters
Monday’s loss wiped out the BRL 409 billion (US$74 billion) gained between 2 and 23 October. It left the total BRL 325 billion (US$59 billion) below the 2 October level, the last session before the first round.
Even so, the total is still BRL 238 billion (US$43 billion) above its end-2025 level, a gain of 5.05%. Investors say the main worry is fiscal policy, meaning how much the government will spend and borrow.
Citigroup and BCA Research, an investment research firm, cut their exposure to Brazilian assets on Monday, 26 October. The Selic, the central bank’s benchmark rate, stands at 13.75% as Copom meets on 3 and 4 November.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users trade real money on outcomes, priced no change in the Selic at 70.2% (29 October, 2:30 p.m. ET). A 25-basis-point cut stood at 27.5%, about US$118,000 has traded across the markets, and these prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
American holders of Brazilian shares in New York, such as Petrobras and Itaú, saw the fall in dollars, not just reais. Calculated with the central bank’s official rates, the dollar value of all listed firms fell about 20%, or US$228 billion.
A weaker real makes Brazilian trips cheaper for Americans. It also raises the cost of imports and can push inflation up.
Earlier reports cover the crash day and the Wednesday session. They are Brazil Market Report, Oct 26 and Brazil Stocks Fall 2.68% as Banks Slide.
The oil company’s loss is in Petrobras Sheds US$24B in Value. More on the country is on the Brazil hub.
What Is Not Known
Elos Ayta’s tally is the only source for the market-value totals, and its full method and B3’s own series were not checked. No confirmed market-value figure for Tuesday or Wednesday was found, so the total loss since the runoff is not stated.
It is not known whether the sell-off will continue after Wednesday’s close. Nor is it known how Copom will react when it meets on 3 and 4 November.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much value did Brazil’s stock market lose after the election?
Listed companies lost BRL 734 billion (about US$133 billion), or 12.91%, on Monday, 26 October, according to Elos Ayta. The Ibovespa index was about 16.6% lower by Wednesday’s close.
Which Brazilian stocks fell the most?
Banks fell hardest on Monday, led by Banco do Brasil at 29.33%, BTG Pactual at 24.83% and Bradesco at 21.70%. Exporter Vale rose 4.01%.
Why did Brazilian stocks fall after Lula won?
Some investors had positioned for a different result, and they are now repricing Brazil’s fiscal outlook. Their main worry is how much the government will spend and borrow.
Does the fall hurt American investors in Brazilian stocks?
Yes, for holders of Brazilian shares or New York-listed receipts such as Petrobras and Itaú. The real also fell, so losses in dollars were larger than in reais.
Sources: B3, the São Paulo stock exchange, daily closing data for the Ibovespa; Banco Central do Brasil, official PTAX dollar rates; Banco Central do Brasil, Selic rate history and Copom meeting calendar; Elos Ayta, tally of listed companies’ market value, 26 October; Polymarket market data (accessed 29 October 2026, 2:36 p.m. ET).
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff start time and results schedule. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.