Brazil Bettors Back Flávio Bolsonaro at 83%

BRAZIL · ELECTION BETS

US traded bets give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance in Brazil’s runoff. The final polls show a near tie.

The Flávio Bolsonaro odds on Polymarket, a US prediction market, rose to 83% on Saturday, 24 October, from 76.7% on Friday evening. That is the latest move in the Brazil election 2026 runoff, which ends on Sunday, 25 October.

The latest Brazil election odds sit far above the Brazil election polls, where Datafolha and Quaest show margins inside their error range. Voting hours and the start of the count are in the guide to the Brazil runoff date.

What the Bets Show

Polymarket lists Flávio Bolsonaro at 83% and Lula at 17.5% as of 12:58 p.m. ET on Saturday, 24 October. The two prices add to slightly more than 100% because each is the midpoint of its own buying and selling price.

Traders have staked about US$194.9 million on the race as a whole and about US$26.7 million on the Flávio contract alone. About US$2.2 million changed hands across the event in the last 24 hours.

A contract priced at 83 cents pays US$1 if Flávio wins, so traders read it as an 83% chance. It is a bet on who wins, not a poll of how many voters support him.

How the Odds Moved

The Brazilian business magazine Exame reports that Lula led on Polymarket until 9 September and that Flávio overtook him on 10 September. The platform’s price history shows a jump from about 63% to about 83% on 4 October, the day of the first round.

The price dipped to about 75% on Thursday evening after Datafolha showed a tie, and to about 74% on Friday afternoon. It was near 80% by Saturday morning.

What the Polls Say

Datafolha, the polling arm of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper group, interviewed 2,520 voters from 20 to 22 October. It found Flávio on 47% and Lula on 46%, a 50% tie in valid votes, within a 2 point margin of error.

Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters from 17 to 20 October and published on Wednesday, 21 October. It had Flávio on 45% and Lula on 44%, inside its 2 point margin of error.

Exame reports that Flávio led numerically in four of the five national polls released on Friday, 23 October. Lula led only in the Vox Brasil poll.

In valid votes, those polls ranged from 1.2 points for Lula to 4 points for Flávio, Exame says. Most results sit inside the margin of error.

The gap between near-tie polls and an 83% market price does not show who is right. One possible reading is that traders weigh a lead in most polls more than its small size.

Why Brazil Bars These Bets

Brazil’s central bank made public a National Monetary Council decision on 24 April 2026, in Resolution 5,298, Poder360 reported. It bars contracts on elections, sports and reality shows, and the council is the top rule setter for the financial system.

The government also announced a block on 27 platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, the news site Olhar Digital reported. Exame says both can still be reached in Brazil through a VPN, a tool that masks a user’s location.

What It Means for US Readers

The result reaches US holders of Brazil funds and New York listed Brazilian shares when markets open on Monday, 26 October. An earlier piece on what the runoff means for US investors sets out the exposure.

The US Trade Representative imposed a 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods. Poder360 reported it took effect on 22 July, with beef and coffee excluded, and the vote’s effect on it is not known.

Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, had Flávio at 77.5% at 8:45 a.m. Brasília time, Exame reported. Polymarket stood near 80% at that hour, in line with its own price history.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 83% and Lula 17.5% to win (12:58 p.m. ET on 24 October), with about US$194.9 million traded. An earlier report on the odds falling below 80% shows how far the price has swung.

A margin market, with US$5.7 million traded, prices a Flávio win by under 4 points at 38.5% (12:58 p.m. ET). A 4 to 8 point Flávio win is at 36.5%, and a Lula win by under 4 points is at 14.5%.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The sources do not say why the price rose on Saturday, and no single event has been named. Exame and the polling reports cited here describe the move but give no cause.

Kalshi could not be queried on Saturday, so its 77.5% figure is Exame’s from the morning. Who is trading on Polymarket, and how many are Brazilian, is not disclosed.

The tariff start date, Resolution 5,298 and the 27 blocked platforms rest on Brazilian press reports. The resolution text and the contract’s settlement rules were not reviewed here.

What Comes Next

Polls run from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time on Sunday, 25 October, and results can start then, Poder360 reports. That is 4 p.m. ET, because Brazil has no daylight saving time.

The count, not the market, decides the winner, and an 83% price still leaves roughly a 17% chance for Lula. For the wider picture, see the report on the final debate and the Brazil hub.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the odds for Brazil’s runoff?

Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro 83% and Lula 17.5% at 12:58 p.m. ET on 24 October. That is up from 76.7% for Flávio on Friday evening.

Why do the bets differ from the polls?

Polls estimate vote share, and the latest show a near tie, with Datafolha at 50% each in valid votes. A market prices who wins, so a small lead in most polls can still produce a high price.

When does Brazil vote and when are results due?

Voting runs from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time on Sunday, 25 October. Results can start from 5 p.m., which is 4 p.m. ET.

Are prediction markets legal in Brazil?

A National Monetary Council rule made public on 24 April bars contracts on elections, Poder360 reported. The government blocked Polymarket and Kalshi, though Exame says a VPN still reaches them.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a blockchain based platform where users buy and sell yes or no contracts on future events. A price of 83 cents reads as an 83% chance.

Sources: Polymarket public market data for the Brazil presidential election markets, queried 24 October, 12:41 to 12:59 p.m. ET; Exame, 24 October; Poder360, Datafolha poll, 22 October; InvestNews, Quaest poll, 21 October; Poder360, voting hours; Poder360, Resolution 5,298, 24 April; Olhar Digital, 24 April; Poder360, US tariff, 16 July; USTR, Section 301 action on Brazil, July; Jornal do Brasil, daylight saving time, 5 October (all accessed 24 October 2026).