Brazil Runoff: Flávio Hails ‘End of PT Era’, Lula Regroups
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
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Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, elects its president in two rounds when no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes.
- —The background Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of President Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT) in Sunday’s first round.
- —Why now On Monday 5 October both camps restarted their campaigns for the Brazil runoff on Sunday 25 October, three weeks away.
- —What happened Flávio declared “the end of the PT era”; Lula called the result unexpected and promised to chase every vote.
- —The numbers In the TSE’s final count at 02:58 Brasília time on Monday, Flávio had 47.03% of valid votes (56.1 million), Lula 45.16% (53.9 million).
- —What it means for you Brazil’s course on spending, trade and its relations with the courts stays undecided until the night of 25 October.
- —Still open Whether Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado, with about 5% of the vote between them, back anyone. Romeu Zema has sided against the PT.
The Brazil runoff campaign took shape on Monday 5 October after the right-wing challenger came out ahead. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, first on Sunday, declared “the end of the PT era”, meaning Lula’s Workers’ Party.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva admitted the result was unexpected and set out his comeback plan. He wants to bring out non-voters and lean on his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, to win over business.
Where the First Round Left the Race
The TSE, Brazil’s electoral court, finished its count at 02:58 Brasília time on Monday 5 October, with every polling section tallied. Flávio had about 56.1 million votes, or 47.03% of valid votes.
Lula had about 53.9 million votes, or 45.16%, a gap of about 2.2 million votes and 1.87 percentage points. The first-round results report of 4 October has the full count, and a state-by-state breakdown shows where each man won.
Flávio Bolsonaro Declares the End of the PT Era
Flávio spoke to reporters at his campaign headquarters in Lago Sul, a district of Brasília, at around 21:30 on Sunday. “It is the end of the PT era, the end of the PT era is decreed,” he said, according to SBT News.
He called his result a “voto de confiança”, a vote of confidence, from almost 56 million Brazilians, Poder360 reported. The line set the tone for his Brazil runoff campaign: the country, he argued, wants change.
He then turned to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s highest court. His government could name at least four justices “who will not try to interfere in elections”, he said.
Lula, he noted, has run for president seven times and “is worried about power”, according to SBT News and Poder360. Flávio repeated his pledge to serve a single term: “I only need one mandate,” he said, PlatôBR reported.
Lula Calls the Result Unexpected
Lula followed the count at the Renaissance hotel near Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, with his wife Janja and ministers, Poder360 reported. He then spoke to supporters with Alckmin at his side, according to La Tercera.
“The result is often unexpected,” he said, as quoted by InfoMoney. “I confess I was convinced we would win in the first round.”
He described his opponent’s side as offering only uncertainty and “a dark past”, and promised a new campaign between just two candidates. “I am very good at the knockout stage,” he said, according to CNN Brasil, using the football term mata-mata.
He also sent a warning to his rivals. After one day off, “on Tuesday, let the Bolsonaros get ready,” he said, adding that the contest was now in extra time.
Lula’s Plan: Non-Voters and Business
Lula said 28 million people did not vote and promised to appeal to them before the Brazil runoff, CNN Brasil reported. The TSE’s final tally is higher: 33.5 million registered voters, or 21.08%, stayed away on Sunday.
That pool is about 15 times the gap between the two finalists. Voting is compulsory for most adults in Brazil, yet roughly one in five stayed home.
For business, Lula is leaning on Alckmin, a former São Paulo governor with close ties to industry. Campaign sources told the Argentine outlet La Política Online that Alckmin will be central to Lula’s Brazil runoff strategy.
According to that report, he will pitch the government’s industrial policy, called Nova Indústria Brasil, to industrialists, including São Paulo’s industry federation.
“We have to move to the centre,” a PT official told the outlet. The plan, the official said, is to call on Augusto Cury’s voters and add those who did not vote.
Lula hinted at the same division of labour on Sunday. “What is clearest for me and for Alckmin is to show what Brazil we want to build,” he said, according to InfoMoney.
Alckmin has played this role before. On 1 September, Correio Braziliense reported that Lula had asked business leaders to compare Alckmin with Flávio’s running mate, Alfredo Gaspar.
Business leaders will weigh that pitch against another promise from Sunday night. Lula said no fiscal cut would be allowed to hurt Brazil’s poor, TVT News reported.
The Third Way Collapses
The so-called third way, candidates offering an alternative to both Lula and the Bolsonaros, fell apart on Sunday. No one outside the top two reached 3% of valid votes, CartaCapital noted.
Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and author, led that group with 2.89%. Renan Santos took 2.24%, former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% and Romeu Zema, a former Minas Gerais governor, 0.27%.
In 2022, by contrast, two candidates passed 3%: Simone Tebet with 4.16% and Ciro Gomes with 3.04%. The ten eliminated candidates took about 7.8% together, a pool both finalists now chase in the Brazil runoff.
Zema has already picked a side. “In the second round I will be against the PT, because the PT is backwardness,” he said, according to Terra.
Cury said he would stay completely silent about the two finalists, and Renan Santos refused to back either man. Caiado said he would decide only after meeting Gilberto Kassab, the leader of his Social Democratic Party (PSD).
Bruno Soller of the pollster Real Time Big Data told InfoMoney that Zema’s and Caiado’s voters lean towards Flávio. Cury’s remaining voters, older and poorer, look closer to Lula’s base, he said.
Polls Versus the Result
Most pollsters had Lula in front before the vote. Of 11 polling firms tracked by the news site Bahia Notícias, only four showed Flávio ahead.
Two of those four, Palver and Gerp, came closest to the final result, the site found. Flávio seized on the miss: “Many polling institutes had us behind,” he said on Sunday night, according to SBT News.
History favours Flávio, but only up to a point. Since 1989, every candidate who finished first in a first round has gone on to win, Nexo Jornal noted.
A lead of 1.87 points is narrow, though, and the Brazil runoff is a new contest between two names. The 33.5 million who stayed home could tip it either way.
What Comes Next
Both camps scheduled strategy talks in Brasília for Monday. Lula called allies to a meeting in the capital, CNN Brasil reported.
Flávio summoned Tarcísio de Freitas, re-elected governor of São Paulo on Sunday, to Brasília. Free of his own race, he is to help plan the next steps, including a joint national tour, CNN Brasil reported.
The Brazil runoff takes place on Sunday 25 October, and the winner takes office in January 2027. A separate guide explains what the 25 October runoff means for expats.
How Brazil’s markets enter the three-week campaign is covered in a separate report.
What the first round does not mean is a done deal. Flávio leads by less than two points, and neither camp has yet locked in the voters of the eliminated candidates.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
When is the Brazil runoff?
The Brazil runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026. It pits Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) against President Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT). It is needed because neither won more than half of the valid votes on 4 October.
What did Flávio Bolsonaro mean by “the end of the PT era”?
The PT, or Workers’ Party, is Lula’s party. Lula governed from 2003 to 2010 and again since 2023, and Flávio says his first-round lead shows that voters want change.
Why does Lula keep talking about non-voters?
About 33.5 million registered voters, or 21.08%, stayed home on 4 October, according to the TSE. That is about 15 times Flávio’s lead, so bringing some of them out before the Brazil runoff could decide the race.
Have the eliminated candidates endorsed anyone?
Romeu Zema said he will be against the PT, which in practice favours Flávio. Augusto Cury and Renan Santos refused to back anyone, and Ronaldo Caiado will decide after consulting his party.
Sources: TSE, official presidential results (final count, 02:58 Brasília time), 5 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 5 October 2026; SBT News, 4 October 2026; Poder360, 5 October 2026; PlatôBR, 4 October 2026; Poder360, 4 October 2026; InfoMoney, 4 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 4 October 2026; La Tercera, 5 October 2026; La Política Online, 5 October 2026; Correio Braziliense, 1 September 2026; TVT News, 4 October 2026; CartaCapital, 4 October 2026; Terra, 4 October 2026; InfoMoney, 4 October 2026; Bahia Notícias, 4 October 2026; Nexo Jornal, 5 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 4 October 2026; Jovem Pan, 4 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 5 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief