Published Friday, 23 October, 8:25 a.m. ET · Source: IBGE, Brazil’s statistics agency
Key Facts
—The number. Brazil’s mid-month inflation index rose 0.32% in October, below the 0.43% forecast.
—Yearly pace. Prices are 4.62% higher than a year ago, against 4.73% expected.
—Markets. The real trades near 5.03 per US dollar, and the Ibovespa fell 1.15% on Thursday.
—Next. Brazil votes in a presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.9% and Lula at 23.5% to win (23 October 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET).
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 23%
As of 23 October, 8:20 am ET (13:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s prices rose less than economists expected in the month to mid-October, on the last trading day before Sunday’s presidential runoff. The IPCA-15, a preview of the official inflation rate, climbed 0.32%, IBGE reported on Friday at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil (Selic, Focus survey, PTAX), IBGE (IPCA), EODHD (market quotes). Checked Oct 23, 12:30 UTC.
The reading matters because it lands on the final day of trading before the vote. Brazilian markets are closed on Saturday and Sunday and reopen on Monday, 26 October, with the result already known.
What the Inflation Number Says
The 0.32% rise was below the 0.43% forecast in a Reuters survey. Over 12 months, the index stands at 4.62%, below the 4.73% forecast but above the 4.47% of the previous reading.
Food and drink rose 0.88%, the biggest push on the index, with tomatoes up 24.54%, onions up 13.63% and potatoes up 10.96%. Fuels sped up to 1.20% from 0.22%, led by diesel at 3.70%, according to InfoMoney.
Cheaper electricity pulled the other way. Power bills fell 0.89% after a tariff surcharge was lifted, after a 7.42% rise a month earlier.
For a US reader, the IPCA-15 is a 15-day preview of the monthly consumer price index, much as a flash estimate. It is published by IBGE and tracks prices from mid-month to mid-month.
In Plain English
IPCA-15: an early read on Brazilian consumer prices, released before the official monthly figure.
Ibovespa: the main index of the São Paulo stock exchange, known as B3.
Runoff: the second round of voting between the two leading candidates, held when nobody wins a majority in the first.
How Markets Moved Before the Vote
The Ibovespa closed Thursday at 204,120 points, down 1.15% from 206,495, according to EODHD market data. Our Thursday market report covers that session.
The dollar swung between R$5.03 and R$5.05 on Friday morning, according to EODHD, close to Thursday’s close of about R$5.04. At that rate one real is worth about US$0.20.
A softer inflation print can calm bond markets, because it gives the central bank room to keep cutting its Selic policy rate. The rate stands at 13.75%, set on 16 September, and the next decision comes on 3 and 4 November.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.15%
204,120.12
-1.15%
69,889.73
-0.51%
10,780.31
-1.88%
3,017,221
—
2,528.42
-1.25%
59,561.23
-4.26%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,120.12 | -1.15% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Why the Runoff Matters to Investors
Brazil’s voters choose on Sunday between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The latest Datafolha poll, cited by Metrópoles, shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 46%, a technical tie within the poll’s margin of error, from fieldwork on 20 to 22 October.
Investors watch the vote because the next government will shape spending, debt and the direction of Brazil’s economy. Polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. Eastern time.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro trades at 76.9% to win the presidency and Lula at 23.5%, with about US$192 million traded on the market (23 October 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET). A separate market on the margin of victory puts a Bolsonaro win by less than four points at 41.5%, with about US$4.9 million traded.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they sit well above what the Datafolha tie suggests. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, is not quoted here.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Dollar-based investors in Brazil, through the EWZ fund or ADRs such as Petrobras, Vale, Itaú and Nu Holdings, face a weekend with a binary event. Monday’s open will price in the winner, and the currency usually reacts first.
Travellers and expats see the effect in the exchange rate, since a real near 5.03 per dollar sets what a hotel night or a flat deposit costs. Sunday is also an election day, so banks and some services run on reduced hours.
What Is Not Known
The result itself, and how far the real and the stock market move on Monday, are unknown. So is whether the softer October reading will last, since food and fuel prices both rose.
IBGE publishes the full October inflation figure in November, covering the whole month. It will show whether the preview was a one-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Brazil’s inflation preview show?
The IPCA-15 rose 0.32% in October, below the 0.43% forecast. Prices are 4.62% higher than a year ago.
How is the real trading before the runoff?
The dollar traded between R$5.03 and R$5.05 on Friday morning. One real is worth roughly US$0.20.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
Voting takes place on Sunday, 25 October. Polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, or 4 p.m. Eastern time.
When does Brazil’s stock market reopen?
The B3 exchange is closed on Saturday and Sunday. Trading resumes on Monday, 26 October.
Sources: IBGE, IPCA-15 · InfoMoney · Money Times · Metrópoles · Datafolha · Banco Central do Brasil · Polymarket · EODHD
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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