BRAZIL ECONOMY · INTEREST RATES
Key Facts
- The number Economists now expect Brazil’s key interest rate at 13.75% on December 31, up from 13.50% a week ago.
- Why Inflation is running above the official ceiling, and 2026 price forecasts sit at 5.22%.
- The path Cuts are delayed, not cancelled: economists see the rate at 12.50% at the end of 2027.
- What to watch Central bank meeting minutes on Tuesday, November 10; October inflation on Thursday, November 12.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives 88.5% to no rate change in December (November 9, 6:53 a.m. ET).
The typical Brazilian economist no longer expects another interest-rate cut this year. The central bank’s weekly survey now sees the rate at 13.75% on December 31, not the 13.25% they expected a month ago.
A month ago, economists tracking Brazil’s economy still expected a further cut of half a point before the year ended. On Monday, November 9, the typical forecast dropped it.
The central bank’s Focus survey, a weekly poll of financial institutions, now puts the Selic at 13.75% for year-end 2026. The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, and 13.75% is exactly where it stands today.
In Plain English
Focus: the central bank’s Monday survey of market economists. Copom: the central bank’s rate-setting committee.
IPCA: Brazil’s official consumer price index, measured by IBGE, the national statistics agency.
The Rate Forecast Moved Up in One Month
Banco Central do Brasil, the central bank, publishes the median of the economists’ forecasts every Monday. The median Selic forecast for the end of 2026 rose to 13.75% from 13.50% a week earlier and 13.25% four weeks earlier.
The Copom cut the rate to 14.00% in August and to 13.75% in September. On Wednesday, November 4, it held at 13.75%, and the typical forecast now includes no further cut this year.
The real is expected to weaken too: R$5.35 per dollar at year-end, against R$5.15 four weeks ago.
Why Economists Changed Their Minds
The IPCA rose 0.82% in September and 4.58% over 12 months, above the 4.5% ceiling of the official target range. The Focus survey expects 5.22% inflation for 2026, unchanged on a week ago.
For 2027 the forecast climbed to 4.90% from 4.76% a week earlier and 4.30% a month earlier. The Copom’s own statement on November 4 said headline inflation and the average of underlying measures had accelerated.
It pointed to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which pushes up oil prices, and to tighter policy in advanced economies. The committee raised its inflation forecast for the second quarter of 2028 to 3.5%, above the 3% target.
It also said risks to inflation are tilted upward.
Cuts Are Delayed, Not Cancelled
Economists still expect the rate to fall next year, but later and by less. Their forecast for the end of 2027 is 12.50%, against 12.00% four weeks ago.
Beyond that, the survey sees 11.00% at the end of 2028 and 10.25% at the end of 2029. Growth forecasts are slipping at the same time: 1.75% for 2026, from 1.85% a month ago, and 1.15% for 2027, from 1.40%.
Slower growth and sticky prices make the central bank’s job hard. Our inflation guide tracks the Focus numbers each week.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, lists a market on the central bank’s December decision, with US$64,831 traded. At 6:53 a.m. ET on November 9 it priced no change at 88.5%, a 0.25-point cut at 5.7% and a cut of 0.5 points or more at 1.7%.
A rise of any size was priced at about 2.4%. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The winners are investors who hold Brazilian government bonds in reais, because a 13.75% rate stays in place for longer. The risk is the currency: a weaker real, as economists now forecast, can eat into returns once they are converted into dollars.
Rate-sensitive companies, such as retailers and homebuilders that borrow heavily, lose from delayed cuts. US holders of Brazilian ADRs, shares of Brazilian firms traded in New York, should watch how Itaú (ITUB) and Nubank (NU), two big lenders, compare with indebted sectors.
Our guides cover the real-to-dollar rate and the Brazilian stock market.
What Is Not Known
The Focus survey is a median of forecasts, not a decision. Only the Copom sets the rate, and it has not said what it will do in December.
What to Watch Next
Tuesday, November 10: the central bank publishes the minutes of its November 4 meeting, which show how the committee debated the hold. Thursday, November 12: IBGE publishes October inflation, which the Focus survey puts at 0.27% for the month.
Monday, November 16: the next Focus survey. Tuesday and Wednesday, December 8 and 9: the Copom’s last meeting of 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s interest rate forecast for the end of 2026?
Economists polled by the central bank expect the Selic at 13.75% on December 31, 2026. That equals today’s rate and is up from 13.25% a month ago.
Why are Brazilian rates not falling faster?
Inflation is above the 4.5% ceiling of the target range, and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 keep rising. The central bank held its rate at 13.75% on November 4.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Focus report released November 9, 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Copom statement of November 4, 2026 (282nd meeting); IBGE, IPCA consumer price index, September 2026; Polymarket (accessed November 9, 2026, 6:53 a.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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