Argentina’s S&P Merval Slides as Technical Pressure Mounts and Exporters Weigh on Sentiment

The S&P Merval Index in Buenos Aires ended June 11 at 2,171,272.38, falling 1.43% in a session marked by persistent selling and weak volumes. Official closing data confirm the index has now lost 4.73% so far this month and sits 23% below its January 2025 record.

The market’s retreat over the past 24 hours reflects a confluence of technical breakdowns and sector-specific headwinds, with the day’s losses concentrated among exporters and utilities.

The charts show that the Merval failed to hold above the 2,178,100 support, closing just above the next key level at 2,171,272. Daily candles reveal a sustained downtrend, with prices stuck below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

The Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart remains red, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating reduced volatility but also a lack of buying interest.

The MACD histogram stays negative, and the signal line continues to drift lower, confirming the absence of bullish momentum. The RSI sits at 45, well below overbought levels, and shows no sign of reversal, reinforcing the market’s lack of conviction.

On the four-hour chart, the Merval attempted a minor rebound but failed to break through resistance near 2,195,000. The index remains below its 200-period moving average, and the MACD, while less negative, still shows no clear sign of recovery.

The RSI on this timeframe has lifted slightly but remains subdued, echoing the daily chart’s caution. These technical signals together indicate that sellers remain in control, and any short-term rallies face strong resistance.

Sector performance over the last day highlights the market’s defensive posture. Utilities, led by Transener, dropped 10.8% as investors reacted to regulatory uncertainty and currency mismatches.

Materials and real estate also lagged, down 2.3% and 2.77% respectively, as U.S. tariffs and a weaker peso continued to erode export margins. Consumer staples and discretionary stocks lost 3.27% and 3.64%, reflecting inflation’s impact on purchasing power and weak domestic demand.

In contrast, a handful of stocks bucked the trend. Autopistas Del Sol gained 5.2% on hopes for higher traffic and possible tariff adjustments. Banco Hipotecario rose 3.3% as investors rotated into select financials, while Telecom Argentina advanced 3% after a positive earnings report.

YPF edged up 2.1% as energy prices stabilized, and Grupo Financiero Galicia posted a modest 0.6% gain. Compared to regional peers, Argentina’s equity market underperformed, with Brazil’s Bovespa and Chile’s IPSA both closing flat to slightly higher.

The Merval’s decline stands out, especially as global markets showed little direction overnight. The index’s year-to-date loss now exceeds 14%, in contrast to Chile’s modest gains and Brazil’s relative stability.

Volumes remained muted, and ETF flows into Argentine equities paused, as international investors weighed ongoing capital controls and currency risks.

Fundamentals remain challenging: exporters face shrinking margins, and domestic demand shows little sign of revival despite signs of macro stabilization.

The technical outlook remains fragile, with both daily and intraday charts suggesting further downside risk unless buyers step in forcefully.

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