Mexican Stocks Stumble as Inflation and Technical Barriers Stall Rally

Mexico City, June 10, 2025—Official market data shows the S&P/BMV IPC Index closed at 57,813.38, down 0.43% over the last 24 hours.

The index has now hovered near its 50-day moving average since June 3, after retreating from a peak of 59,703 on May 27. This marks a clear pause in the strong upward trend that began in early April.

The latest inflation figures for May exceeded expectations, coming in above the central bank’s 3% target. This pressured equities as investors reassessed the likelihood of further interest rate cuts.

Despite this, the Mexican peso strengthened against the dollar, closing at 19.04, as renewed U.S.-China trade talks improved risk sentiment. The peso’s resilience did little to lift local stocks, which remained weighed down by domestic inflation concerns.

Technical analysis of the 4-hour chart reveals the IPC index is consolidating just above the 50-period moving average, with price action riding the moving average and holding above the Ichimoku cloud.

A brief dip below the 50 MA on June 6 failed to trigger a breakdown, suggesting buyers remain active at this level. The daily chart confirms the consolidation: the 20-day moving average has acted as resistance, pushing the index below the 9-day MA.

Mexican Stocks Enter Holding Pattern Amid Mixed Signals

However, the price remains well above the 50- and 200-day moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. Bollinger Bands show price compressing, indicating reduced volatility and a likely buildup for a larger move. Volume has moderated, consistent with this consolidation phase.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings on both timeframes sit in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, confirming a lack of strong momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart shows a flattening signal line, reinforcing the view that the market is in a holding pattern. Support stands at 57,246 (50-day MA), while resistance remains near 57,963 (20-day MA).

The day’s biggest winners included Industrias Peñoles, up 16.9% over the week, driven by strong metals prices, and Grupo Carso, which gained 3.8% on industrial strength. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico rose 3.0% as air travel demand continued to recover.

On the losing side, Banco del Bajío dropped 3.38% amid margin pressure, Qualitas Controladora fell 3.18% on sector weakness, and GMexico Transportes lost 2.67% as transportation stocks lagged.

Compared to peers, the Mexican market remains undervalued, with a P/E ratio of 13.02, below the global average of 20.15 and the emerging market average of 14.47.

Both Brazilian and Mexican equities trade near record levels, but Mexico’s valuation discount reflects ongoing political and inflation risks. In summary, Mexican stocks remain in a consolidation phase, held back by inflation and technical resistance.

The market’s next move will likely depend on inflation trends and central bank policy, with global trade developments providing additional context. Investors continue to watch key technical levels for signs of renewed direction.

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