Argentina’s MERVAL Extends Slide, Hits Key Technical Levels but Avoids New Lows

The S&P MERVAL Index fell sharply on June 4, closing at 2,126,915.34, down 4.39% for the session. Official data from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange confirms this is the lowest close since May 9, but it does not mark a new 2025 low.

The year’s trough remains at 1,891,602.01, set on April 9. The market is now 24.8% below its January 9 record high of 2,829,730.44, reflecting persistent selling pressure and investor caution.

The chart shows the MERVAL trading decisively below its 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages. The index also sits under the Ichimoku cloud and has pierced the lower Bollinger Band, a technical signal of oversold conditions.

The RSI stands at 27.75, confirming extreme short-term weakness. The MACD line remains negative and below its signal line, reinforcing the downtrend. Volume remains robust, indicating conviction behind the selloff and little appetite for bargain hunting.

Banco BBVA Argentina led the day’s losers, falling 4.8% in New York trading. Exporters such as Tenaris and Aluar continued to underperform, still pressured by U.S. tariffs that have reduced Argentina’s export earnings.

Banco de Valores was the top winner, up 3.96%, followed by Central Puerto and Loma Negra, which gained 2.52% and 1.79% respectively. These advances, however, were not enough to offset the broader market’s losses.

Benchmarking against regional peers, the MERVAL lags both Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s IPC, which have shown greater resilience this quarter. Latin American equities as a group trade at an average P/E of 10.43, while Argentina’s market remains more volatile and vulnerable to external shocks.

Argentina’s MERVAL Index

Recent reforms by President Milei initially boosted sentiment, but the removal of capital controls and sharp swings in the peso unsettled investors.

Persistent inflation, high interest rates, and political uncertainty ahead of the October midterm elections continue to weigh on the market. The technical picture offers little hope for a quick rebound.

The MERVAL sits below all major moving averages, with momentum indicators deep in oversold territory. The next support is near 2,106,291, while resistance stands at 2,297,337. Only a sustained move above resistance would signal a shift in sentiment.

In the last 24 hours, the Argentine stock market’s story is one of continued pressure from both domestic and international factors. Export-dependent firms face shrinking revenues, and technical signals point to further weakness.

The MERVAL’s underperformance compared to regional peers highlights the challenges Argentina faces as it navigates policy shifts, global trade headwinds, and ongoing political uncertainty.