Brazil Gas: ANP Opens Plan To Break Petrobras Grip

Editor’s note, 9 August 2026. An earlier version said the ANP proposal would force Petrobras to shed part of its natural gas market share and auction off part of its supply. The proposal preserves 100 per cent of Petrobras’s own production and applies only to gas the company buys from third parties, including Bolivian imports. The warning attributed to Sylvia Anjos has also been restated in the terms she used. Three passages have been corrected.

Regulator launches 45-day consultation on gas release despite Petrobras opposition. What it means for prices and investors.

Brazil’s oil and gas regulator, the ANP, approved on 7 August 2026 a 45-day public consultation on a controversial gas release programme that would require Petrobras to resell part of the gas it buys from third parties, while leaving all of its own production untouched. The programme, backed by the mines and energy ministry, is a direct attempt to break the state-controlled oil giant’s grip on the country’s industrial gas supply — a market where prices are among the highest in the world. At stake is whether Brazil can finally deliver on its promise of a competitive gas market, and whether foreign investors and manufacturers can count on cheaper energy. Petrobras, not surprisingly, is pushing back hard.

What is gas release?

Gas release is a regulatory tool that forces a dominant player to sell a portion of its gas to other companies at regulated terms. The idea is simple: if you want competition, you need to give rivals access to the product. In Brazil, Petrobras controls most of the natural gas supply to industry, so the ANP wants Petrobras to auction part of the gas it buys from other suppliers, including Bolivian imports through the Gasbol pipeline, to other traders and marketers. The proposal explicitly preserves 100 per cent of Petrobras own production.

Think of it as a forced break-up of a monopoly — not of assets, but of market share. The ANP’s proposal is for annual auctions from 2027 to 2030. The first auction is expected in 2027, with delivery of those volumes in 2028, according to some reports. The goal is to release contracts corresponding to 14% of market demand by 2030, and to cut a key concentration index — the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) – from a highly concentrated 3,747 to below 2,500.

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Why Brazilian industrial gas is so expensive

The price gap is at the heart of the fight. ANP director Pietro Mendes, a sharp critic of Petrobras, told reporters that Petrobras buys gas from domestic producers for about US$3.5 per million BTU (some sources say US$3.8) and resells it to industry at about US$12.4 per million BTU. That is a margin of around US$8.6 per million BTU — which Mendes called an enormous mark-up that hurts Brazil’s competitiveness.

“Petrobras is the country’s biggest middleman,” Mendes said, drawing a line in the sand. He argues that the company is not just a producer but a trader that captures a huge cut, inflating costs for factories, power plants, and you as a consumer or investor who depends on a reliable energy supply.

The cost of gas is a major issue for foreign investors. Brazil’s industrial gas is among the most expensive in the world, making local manufacturing less competitive. The mines and energy ministry and the ANP see the gas release programme Brazil as a way to bring prices down by introducing market discipline. Petrobras counters that its pricing reflects international benchmarks and transport costs, and that forced sales would reduce its incentive to invest in production.

What a 45-day consultation actually means

A 45-day public consultation is a standard Brazilian regulatory step. It is not the final decision, but an open call for comments from all interested parties — citizens, companies, industry associations, and even Petrobras itself. During this period, the ANP publishes the full technical and legal details of the gas release proposal, and anyone can submit written feedback.

The regulator then reviews the submissions and may tweak the programme before a final vote. This is not a rubber stamp; consultations can lead to significant changes. For investors, it is a moment to influence the shape of the market. You can participate directly, either by submitting a formal opinion or through representative bodies. The consultation is a formality, but one that can make or break the programme as Petrobras throws its weight into lobbying.

The 45-day window is just the beginning. After the consultation, the ANP will likely hold public hearings and technical sessions to further hash out details. The first auction is still a year or more away, so there is time — but the clock is ticking.

Petrobras fights back

Petrobras is not taking this lying down. The company’s executives, including Angélica Laureano, argue that its market share is only 56% in the non-thermoelectric market, which the programme targets, and that this does not justify classifying the company as dominant. She says the market is already competitive and that the gas release could make gas production investments unviable, Sylvia Anjos, another Petrobras executive, has warned separately that a regulatory change could delay the SEAP gas pipeline project.

The stakes are high. Petrobras is a listed company, and foreign investors hold a significant stake. Forced divestment of market share could hit its revenues, but the ANP insists the move is necessary to comply with the New Gas Law of 2021. Article 33 of that law mandates measures to deconcentrate the gas market, and the ANP is the regulatory authority tasked with enforcing it.

The battle pits the regulator and the ministry against the state-controlled oil major. While the ANP pushes for lower prices and more competition, Petrobras argues it is being unfairly targeted. The outcome of this tussle will affect not just Petrobras’s bottom line but the entire Brazilian industrial sector.

Why you should care about gas release programme Brazil

If you live in Brazil or run a business here, gas prices directly affect your energy bills, the cost of goods, and the overall investment climate. Cheaper gas could make Brazilian manufacturing more competitive, attract foreign direct investment, and reduce inflation. On the other hand, if the programme collapses, industry will continue paying some of the highest gas prices in the world.

For foreign investors, this is a litmus test of Brazil’s regulatory independence. Can the state move against its own champion? The ANP’s willingness to confront Petrobras signals a commitment to market reforms — or, if Petrobras wins, a sign that realpolitik still holds sway. Either way, keep an eye on this consultation window; the outcome will shape the energy sector for years to come.

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Sources: ANP; Petrobras; Ministério de Minas e Energia; Valor Econômico; Folha de S.Paulo; Poder360; CNN Brasil; BNamericas.

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