NY Times Tells Trump to Stay Out of Brazil

BRAZIL · US POLITICS

The paper’s editorial board says US pressure on Brazil is undemocratic. It published that view on the day Lula won a fourth term.

The New York Times told Trump on Sunday, 25 October, to stay out of Brazilian politics. Its editorial board published the call on the day of the Brazil election 2026 runoff, before the winner was confirmed.

Lula won 51.79% of valid votes, the electoral court’s data show, and Flávio Bolsonaro says he will not recognise it. Background is in the guides to Brazil election polls, Brazil election odds and the Brazil runoff date.

What the Editorial Says

The editorial is titled “Trump Should Stay Out of Brazilian Politics”. Money Times and BPMoney quote its text in Portuguese, and the English below is translated back.

The board says Trump never formally backed Flávio Bolsonaro. Its view is that his actions amounted to an endorsement.

The board says Trump went “far beyond American diplomatic tradition” in a failed effort to keep Jair Bolsonaro out of prison. It cites a 50% tariff on most Brazilian imports in 2025 and sanctions on the trial judge and his wife.

The board says the tariffs weakened Brazil’s economy. It adds that outside interference in a democratic state’s election is undemocratic, because Americans are not part of Brazil’s political system.

The board says the effect of Trump’s pressure on the vote cannot be measured precisely. It calls the leaders he favours abroad mostly hard-line conservatives with authoritarian leanings.

The editorial says US meddling in foreign elections has a troubled past that had faded in recent decades. It says Trump and aides have backed candidates in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras, Hungary, Israel, Japan and Poland this term.

What Washington Has Said and Done

Asked about the runoff on Sunday afternoon, before the result, Trump said only that the US was watching, BioBioChile reported. He did not name a preferred candidate.

Later that evening Trump questioned Lula’s win and cited Joe Biden’s playbook, Times Brasil reported, citing the Spanish agency EFE. The sources reviewed give no venue or time for the remark.

After the 4 October first round, Trump called Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead a “great victory”, BioBioChile noted. In late September, State Department spokeswoman Amanda Roberson said meddling in foreign elections is not US strategy, Gazeta do Povo reported.

In August the State Department told the G1 news site it respects any government Brazilians freely choose, Correio da Manhã reported. It said it keeps ties with both sides of Brazil’s political spectrum.

A 25% US tariff on Brazilian goods took effect on Wednesday, 22 July, after a US probe of Brazil’s trade practices. Poder360 reported that coffee, beef and oil were left off the list, and Brazil’s presidency called the move a “lamentable milestone”.

The editorial’s sanctions hit justice Alexandre de Moraes on 30 July 2025 and his wife, Viviane, on 22 September 2025. The US Treasury’s sanctions office, OFAC, removed both from its Magnitsky list on Friday, 12 December 2025.

The Vote and the Dispute

Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, shows Lula on 64,256,232 votes and Flávio Bolsonaro on 59,826,041. That is a lead of 4,430,191 with every polling section counted, roughly twice the 2022 gap of about 2.1 million.

Lula took 51.79% of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots, and turnout was 80.78%. About 128.2 million of 158.7 million registered voters went to the polls.

Late on Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro said recognising the result was impossible and that he would seek annulment, Agência Brasil reported. He blamed Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s order extending voting by two hours, to 7 p.m. Brasília time.

Gazeta do Povo says Zanin acted on Lula’s coalition request, and Flávio’s campaign asked the electoral court instead. Agência Brasil says both campaigns asked Zanin, so the sources disagree.

Related coverage sets out what each side says and the loser’s refusal to concede. Neither the electoral court nor Flávio’s team had reported a filing in the sources reviewed.

What It Means for US Readers

Lula’s win keeps in office the government fighting Washington over a 25% tariff. The editorial argues pressure on elected governments can backfire, and the tariff was not on the ballot.

US exporters, importers and holders of Brazil funds should watch for any change to the tariff list. Poder360 reported that Washington said it may revise the list as talks with Brazil proceed.

The criticism comes ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November. The editorial itself is opinion and sets no policy.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a US prediction market, gave a 74% chance that Trump speaks with Lula by 31 October. It is the last trade at 3:50 a.m. ET on 26 October, because bids and asks sit 18 cents apart.

That contract has drawn about US$25,400 in bets, and its rules count any verbal contact by phone, video or in person. It is a bet on a call, not a forecast of policy.

A separate Polymarket contract on a Trump endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro settled at No, after about US$59,500 in bets. Its rules require an explicit, unambiguous endorsement, which matches the editorial’s point that he never formally backed him.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The editorial’s full text could not be opened, so its words come from Portuguese reports and are translated back. InfoMoney alone reports that the editorial mentions a letter from Democratic lawmakers to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

It is not known whether the White House or State Department has answered the editorial or congratulated Lula. The sources reviewed carry no such statement as of Monday morning, 26 October.

It is not known whether Flávio Bolsonaro has filed his annulment request, or how the electoral court will rule. Nor is it known when the court will formally certify Lula’s win.

The court’s data give Lula 51.785%, which rounds to 51.79%, and some outlets print 51.78%. The sources also differ on who asked for the voting extension.

What Comes Next

Flávio Bolsonaro’s team says it will go to court, and the electoral court must still certify the result. Lula takes office on Tuesday, 5 January 2027, under Constitutional Amendment 111.

The next signals are whether Trump calls Lula before 31 October and whether the tariff list changes. An editorial does not change US policy by itself.

For earlier context, see the report on Celso Amorim’s view of Trump. More is on the Brazil hub.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the New York Times say about Trump and Brazil?

Its editorial board said Trump should stay out of Brazilian politics and called outside interference in elections undemocratic. It cited the 2025 tariff and sanctions on a Brazilian judge.

Did Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro?

No formal endorsement has been reported. A Polymarket endorsement contract settled at No, and before the vote Trump said only that the US was watching.

Who won Brazil’s runoff?

Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a lead of 4,430,191 votes, the electoral court’s data show. He takes office on 5 January 2027.

Has Flávio Bolsonaro accepted the result?

He has not. Late on Sunday he said recognising the result was impossible and that he would seek annulment in court.

What US tariff applies to Brazil?

A 25% tariff took effect on 22 July on Brazilian goods, with exemptions such as coffee, beef and oil, Poder360 reported. Washington said it may revise the list as talks continue.

Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), results of the 25 October runoff; Money Times, 25 October; BPMoney, 25 October; InfoMoney, 25 October; Agência Brasil, 25 October; Gazeta do Povo, 25 October; BioBioChile, 25 October; Gazeta do Povo, 3 October; Correio da Manhã, August; Poder360, 16 July; US Treasury, 30 July 2025; OFAC, 22 September 2025; OFAC, 12 December 2025; Times Brasil, 26 October; Troutman Pepper Locke on the USTR tariff notice; Polymarket public market data, queried 26 October, 3:35 to 3:50 a.m. ET (all accessed 26 October 2026).