Chicago Business Index Slips to 55.3 in October
Rio Times Markets · United States
Key Facts
- What. The Chicago Business Barometer, a monthly survey of regional firms, fell to 55.3 in October 2026 from 58.8.
- Versus forecast. Economists expected 56.1. Any reading above 50 signals growth, so the region is still expanding.
- Inside the index. Hiring jumped 10.3 points to a five-year high, while production fell 5.2 points.
- What next. A November reading back above 58.8 would show October was a blip.
Business activity in the Chicago region grew more slowly in October, but the main gauge stayed well above the 50 line that separates growth from decline.
What Changed
A closely watched survey of Chicago-area businesses cooled in October but still points to growth. The Chicago Business Barometer, published by MNI Indicators (a financial news service), fell 3.5 points to 55.3 from 58.8 in September.
That was below the 56.1 that economists had forecast. It was the second month in a row above 50, the line that separates growth from decline.
Why It Moved
MNI said the fall partly reflected the supplier deliveries index (a gauge of how quickly suppliers deliver), which dropped 10.3 points but stayed above 50. Production fell 5.2 points and also stayed in growth territory for a second month.
Hiring went the other way. The employment index rose 10.3 points to its highest since April 2021, after one month in decline.
In Plain English
A purchasing managers’ index turns a survey of company managers into one number. In these surveys, slower supplier deliveries add to the score, so a fall can reflect easing supply chains rather than weaker demand.
What It Means for Readers Abroad
The Chicago region is an early guide to the US industrial heartland, and this reading says business there is still expanding. For investors in US-linked markets, it supports the view of a slower but intact US economy.
Labour costs cooled a little as well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US government’s jobs and pay agency, said its Employment Cost Index, which tracks what wages and benefits cost employers, rose 0.8% in the third quarter, in line with forecasts and down from 0.9% in the second, with wages up 0.7% and benefits up 0.9%.
What Would Change the Picture
A November Chicago reading above 58.8 would show that October’s dip was a one-month blip. A reading below 50 would signal that business in the region is shrinking.
On pay, a fourth-quarter cost index above 0.9% would point to renewed wage pressure. Another 0.8% or lower would confirm the cooling.
What Is Not Known Yet
This report does not cover the new orders reading, so it is not clear whether demand weakened. It is also unclear whether October’s hiring jump will last.
Sources: MNI Indicators, Chicago Business Barometer, October 2026 report; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index; RT economic calendar. This is news, not investment advice.
More: North America news and markets, every day from The Rio Times. Related: Fed plans one meeting with no rate vote.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is the Chicago Business Barometer?
It is a monthly survey of managers at Chicago-area firms, published by MNI Indicators. Readings above 50 signal growth and readings below 50 signal contraction.
Is the Chicago Business Barometer Still Showing Growth?
Yes. It fell to 55.3 in October from 58.8 in September, but it remains above 50 and has done so for two months in a row.
Why Did the Chicago Index Fall in October?
MNI said supplier deliveries dropped 10.3 points and production fell 5.2 points. Employment rose 10.3 points to its highest since April 2021.
What Does the Employment Cost Index Measure?
It tracks the cost of wages and benefits to US employers. It rose 0.8% in the third quarter, matching forecasts.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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