MEXICO · TRADE
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is the United States’ southern neighbour and a major trading partner, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum.
- —Why it matters US tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminium and 25% on cars hit Mexican exports.
- —Why now Trump said on Friday 23 October that a deal is very close, and Sheinbaum said the same Tuesday.
- —What happened No final deal has been announced, and Mexico’s economy secretary Marcelo Ebrard was in Washington on Friday.
- —The numbers The US goods trade deficit with Mexico was US$197.0 billion in 2025.
- —What it means for you US carmakers, steel buyers and investors in Mexico face unchanged tariffs until a text appears.
- —Still open The tariff rates, the Mexican concessions and any signing date are unknown.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
President Donald Trump said on Friday 23 October 2026 that the United States is “very close” to a Mexico tariff deal, after Sheinbaum said the same on Tuesday. Mexico wants lower US tariffs on its steel, aluminium and cars, which today stand at 50% for the metals and 25% for vehicles, with some exceptions.
For US readers the stakes are practical, because the tariffs sit on goods that American factories, builders and car buyers rely on. The US sold Mexico US$337.3 billion of goods in 2025 and bought US$534.3 billion, so any change moves a very large trade flow.
No text has been published and no signing date has been set. We covered the earlier pledge in Mexico Gets Trump Pledge of Trade Deal on 10 October, and this report covers what changed on Friday.
In Plain English
- Tariff: a tax a government puts on goods that cross its border.
- USMCA: the 2020 trade pact between the US, Mexico and Canada, called T-MEC in Mexico. The three countries are reviewing it now.
- Marcelo Ebrard: Mexico’s economy secretary and chief trade negotiator.
- Jamieson Greer: the US Trade Representative, who leads trade talks for Washington.
- Howard Lutnick: the US Commerce Secretary, who also has a say on tariffs.
What Trump, Sheinbaum and Ebrard Said
Asked about the talks on Friday, Trump said: “We’re very close to a deal with Mexico.” He added that Canada is “working very hard to make a deal with us” and that “we have all the cards in both of them,” in a clip posted by the Rapid Response 47 account on X.
Infobae reported that he also said the deal must be very good for the United States or he will not close it. Trump had already said at a rally in Kansas on Monday 19 October that a deal was “very close” and that a “big” deal would soon cut the US trade deficit, according to Infobae and the EFE news agency.
Sheinbaum answered a reporter’s question about Trump’s Monday remark at her morning news conference on Tuesday 20 October, and the official transcript records her words. “We are already very close, there are still some issues,” she said, and the goal is to cut the tariffs on vehicles, steel and aluminium “to the maximum” and see no new ones.
On Friday Ebrard said in a recorded message from Washington, “We are advancing in the conversations with the United States,” Infobae reported. La Crónica added that he travelled there to keep the talks going and that no final deal has been announced.
Where the Mexico Tariff Deal Stands
Sheinbaum described the process as a series of offers. She said Washington proposes that a tariff “can be reduced by so much” and asks Mexico for a list of steps, and some of those points are still unresolved.
She said Mexico will not negotiate anything outside its constitution and laws, or anything that would hurt the national economy or jobs. She said there has been “a lot of progress” but not yet a final agreement, and she declined to put a percentage on it.
She also praised the attitude of the US Commerce Department and of Greer’s trade office. That matters because the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday 15 October, citing people familiar with the talks, that Lutnick had resisted large cuts to the 25% car tariff and the 50% metals tariff.
El Economista, relaying that report, wrote that officials in both countries denied any impasse. Ebrard later said that Lutnick is not against lowering tariffs, according to La Silla Rota.
What Mexico Wants and What Is Known
Mexico is asking for tariffs of 15% or less, the rate Japanese and South Korean cars pay today, according to El Economista’s summary of the Journal report. The same account says Mexico also wants a rebate system that counts parts made in all three USMCA countries.
On Monday 19 October Ebrard told a news conference that Mexico expects a good answer before the end of 2026, as Forbes México reported. He called the 50% metals tariff unjustified because Mexico imports more steel than it exports, and he said no date exists for a fourth round of talks.
Ebrard has also said about 80% of Mexican exports to the United States already enter without tariffs, according to La Silla Rota and Infobae. Infobae added that car-industry sources said they do not know the terms of any possible deal.
The Trade Numbers Behind the Talks
Trump has framed the deal as a way to narrow the US trade deficit with Mexico. US Census Bureau data show a goods deficit of US$197.0 billion in 2025, from exports of US$337.3 billion and imports of US$534.3 billion.
In the first eight months of 2026 the deficit reached US$155.9 billion, with exports of US$263.5 billion and imports of US$419.3 billion. The same months of 2025 totalled US$128.6 billion by our own addition of the Census monthly figures, so the gap is about 21% wider.
The talks sit inside the wider review of the USMCA, and the US Trade Representative opened a public-comment process for its 2027 review on 5 October. Mexico will hold its own consultations in January, Forbes México reported, and US midterm elections fall on Tuesday 3 November.
What It Means for You
US carmakers, steel and aluminium buyers and investors in Mexican assets should treat the Mexico tariff deal talk as a signal rather than a change, because the 50% and 25% tariffs still apply today. Our guides Who Runs Mexico’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026 and Mexico Nearshoring 2026: FDI, Tariffs and the USMCA Review show who would gain or lose.
Earlier coverage of the same talks includes Mexico Expects US Tariff Cuts, Seeks 15% Cap and Mexico Says North America Trade Pact Lasts 10 Years. Travellers and residents will see no change from Friday’s remarks, and our Mexico City expat guide covers daily costs.
What Is Not Known
No official text, tariff rate, quota or date for the deal has been published by either government. We found no White House transcript of Friday’s remarks, so Trump’s words rest on the Rapid Response 47 clip and on EFE, N+ and Infobae, which agree on the core quote.
It is not known what Mexico is being asked to concede, since Sheinbaum described the requests only as a list of steps. The Journal’s account of Lutnick’s objections comes from unnamed people and both governments deny a stall.
Reports differ on the setting of Trump’s remarks, with one outlet placing them as he left the White House and another as an answer to a question about Sheinbaum. It is also unclear whether a deal would come before the 3 November midterms.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the US and Mexico sign a tariff deal on 23 October?
No, Trump only said a Mexico tariff deal is very close. Neither government has published terms or a signing date.
What tariffs does Mexico face today?
US tariffs are 50% on steel and aluminium and 25% on cars, with some exceptions. Mexico wants them cut as far as possible and no new ones.
What has Sheinbaum said about the talks?
On Tuesday 20 October she said Mexico is very close but some issues remain. She said Mexico will not accept anything against its laws or that costs jobs.
Who is Marcelo Ebrard?
He is Mexico’s economy secretary and its chief trade negotiator. He was in Washington on Friday 23 October for talks.
What does the deal mean for US readers?
It could lower costs for US users of Mexican steel, aluminium and cars, but nothing changes until a text is published. Investors should wait for the terms.
Sources: Presidency of Mexico, official transcript of the 20 October 2026 news conference; El Financiero (EFE), 23 October 2026; Aristegui Noticias, 23 October 2026; N+, 23 October 2026; Infobae, 23 October 2026; Infobae on Ebrard, 23 October 2026; La Crónica de Hoy, 23 October 2026; Forbes México, 19 October 2026; El Economista, 16 October 2026; La Silla Rota, 16 October 2026; US Census Bureau, trade in goods with Mexico.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief