AFRICA · POLITICS
South Africa’s governing party lost ground in local elections this week, and Nigeria’s 2027 campaign turned deadly on Saturday. Both countries are among the African markets US investors watch most closely.
The African National Congress (ANC), which has led South Africa since 1994, won 30.76% of the vote on 4 November, still first but well below the roughly 46% it won in the 2021 local elections. In Nigeria, one person died at an opposition rally in Asaba, a city in Delta State, on Saturday 7 November.
Key Facts
- Who The ANC won 30.76%; the Democratic Alliance (DA), its main rival, took 24.64%.
- What 127 of South Africa’s 213 councils have no majority party, so coalitions must form.
- Nigeria One person died and five were hurt at a rally for Peter Obi’s Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) on 7 November.
- Money Nigeria seeks US$500 million from the World Bank; World Bank board approval is scheduled for 25 May 2027.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a real-money market, gives Helen Zille, a DA veteran, 66.5% to be Johannesburg’s next mayor (9 November, 3:09 a.m. ET).
In Plain English
- Hung council a local council where no party holds more than half the seats.
- Government of National Unity South Africa’s multi-party national government, formed after the 2024 election.
- National Executive Committee the ANC’s top body between party conferences.
- NDC the Nigeria Democratic Congress, the party of presidential candidate Peter Obi.
- INFRAGROW a planned platform to channel private money into Nigerian infrastructure.
South Africa’s Ruling Party Slips but Stays First
The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), which runs elections, declared the vote free and fair on Sunday 8 November in Midrand, a city between Johannesburg and Pretoria. The IEC put turnout at 52%, up 6.1 points from 45.9% in the 2021 local elections, with 29.2 million registered voters.
The ANC won 3,246 council seats and the DA 1,695, ahead of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, a new party founded by former president Jacob Zuma, on 9.76%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a left-wing party, took 6.22%, and ActionSA, founded by Herman Mashaba, took 5.67%.
Coalition Talks Start as the ANC Debates Its Leader
The Electoral Commission says 127 of the 213 councils have no majority party (are hung). Parties face a legal 14-day window to elect mayors and speakers, so deals must come quickly.
President Cyril Ramaphosa told parties on 8 November that where no party has a majority, representatives “will need to find common ground”. He added that “the stability of our municipalities cannot be sacrificed to narrow political interests.”
On 7 November, senior members of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC), its top body between party conferences, told a South African newspaper that Ramaphosa had raised the idea of resigning as party leader after the result. ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu said she was not aware of such a discussion, and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said on 8 November that the claims were not true.
One executive member said a resignation would end the Government of National Unity. That claim is unconfirmed, and the ANC’s coalition choices remain open.
The IFP Opens Talks After Winning Five Councils
The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), a party based in KwaZulu-Natal, a province on the east coast, led by Velenkosini Hlabisa, won outright control of five councils in that province: uMsinga, Nongoma, Ulundi, Mthonjaneni and Nkandla. It also leads 19 municipalities.
Hlabisa said the IFP’s executive would meet on Monday 9 November to set up a negotiating team and would talk to everyone, but “we are not going into coalitions just for the sake of getting into power.” He named stability and sustainable service delivery as his conditions.
Johannesburg, South Africa’s business hub, is the council investors will watch most. Its mayor will be chosen only after coalition deals.
Lagos Candidates Clash Over Rent, Housing and Floods
Four candidates for governor of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, debated on Sunday 8 November and disagreed on rents, housing and flooding. They included Obafemi Hamzat of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Funso Doherty of the NDC and Deji Doherty of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Hamzat, the state’s deputy governor, and Rhodes-Vivour traded competing plans on housing and transport. The candidates also clashed over flooding, traffic and education.
The candidates set out different plans on rents, housing and flooding. Voters will weigh those plans in the 2027 governorship election.
Nigeria Seeks US$500 Million From the World Bank
Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Finance is seeking US$500 million from the World Bank for INFRAGROW, a platform meant to draw private money into energy, transport and water projects. The Bank lists the project as a pipeline proposal, with board approval scheduled for 25 May 2027, four days before the next president’s inauguration on 29 May.
The US$500 million would come as US$400 million from the Bank’s main lending arm, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), and US$100 million from the International Development Association (IDA), its arm for poorer countries. It sits inside a US$3.85 billion package that also includes guarantees and other financing.
The Bank rates the project’s environmental and social risk as high. Approval would not mean immediate payout, and the Bank’s schedule can change.
Deadly Attack on an Opposition Rally in Asaba
One person was killed and five were injured on Saturday 7 November when suspected thugs attacked a rally of NDC supporters on Nnebisi Road in Asaba, the capital of Delta State, according to the Delta State Police Command, the state’s police force. The rally was organised by the Obidient movement, a network of supporters of Peter Obi, the NDC’s presidential candidate.
Police spokesperson Bright Edafe said officers had warned of a risk of violence and advised against an open-road procession, but the march went ahead. Obi condemned the attack on Sunday and called for an investigation.
Police said the organisers ignored their advice, while the Obidient movement blamed armed hoodlums and asked for the arrest of their sponsors. The accounts conflict, and police say they have opened an investigation.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, gave Helen Zille 66.5% to become Johannesburg’s next mayor and Herman Mashaba of ActionSA 23.1%, with US$151,439 traded (9 November, 3:09 a.m. ET). On Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, it priced President Bola Tinubu at 67.5% and Peter Obi at 22.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They will move as coalition talks and the campaign develop.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Councils run water, electricity and roads, so stalled coalition talks in South African cities can delay budgets and contracts. The next two weeks will show whether the ANC and the DA, which govern together nationally, can also share city halls.
For Nigeria, the World Bank timetable and the safety of campaign rallies are the items to track. US travellers should check current US State Department advice before visiting.
What Is Not Known
It is not confirmed that Ramaphosa raised resigning, and the ANC denies it. Which parties will govern the 127 hung councils is still open.
Who carried out the Asaba attack is not established. The World Bank has not approved the loan, and its schedule can change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the ANC win in South Africa’s 2026 local elections?
The ANC won 30.76% of the vote and 3,246 council seats, finishing first. The Democratic Alliance took 24.64%.
Is Cyril Ramaphosa resigning as ANC leader?
Not confirmed. Party executives told reporters on 7 November that he raised the idea, but the ANC spokesperson said she was unaware of it and its secretary-general said no such step was under consideration.
What is Nigeria asking the World Bank for?
Nigeria’s Finance Ministry seeks US$500 million for INFRAGROW, an infrastructure financing platform. The World Bank lists board approval for 25 May 2027.
What happened at the Asaba rally?
Suspected thugs attacked an NDC rally on Saturday 7 November, killing one person and injuring five, according to Delta police. Police have opened an investigation.
Sources: Electoral Commission of South Africa, declaration of the 2026 local election results, 8 November 2026 (https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/iec-declares-lge-2026-free-and-fair); remarks by President Cyril Ramaphosa, 8 November 2026 (https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/president-urges-parties-put-service-delivery-ahead-political-interests); statement by IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa; Delta State Police Command statement; statement by Peter Obi on X; World Bank project P519064, INFRAGROW (https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P519064), read 9 November 2026; Polymarket markets on the Johannesburg mayor and the Nigerian presidential election (https://polymarket.com/event/next-mayor-of-johannesburg-20260609220245506), read 9 November 2026.
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error