Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB, the central bank), has said inflation will return to 3% only in 2028. He gave that timeline in an interview on 15 October 2026 and again in remarks published on Friday 13 November 2026.
Key Facts
—Outlook. Governor Kganyago says inflation returns to the 3% target only in 2028.
—Latest data. Consumer price inflation was 4.5% in September, up from 4.4% in August.
—Rates. The repo rate (the Bank’s main lending rate) stands at 7.25% after a September hike.
—Dates. October inflation data are scheduled for 18 November, and the rate decision for 19 November.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, bets 41.7% on 2026 inflation of 4.7% to 5.0%.
South Africa’s central bank wants inflation back at 3%, but the governor says that will take until 2028. The next two weeks bring fresh price data and a rate decision.
What the Bank Has Said
The Bank’s statement of Wednesday 23 September 2026 said it is crucial that inflation reverts to 3% as the current shock fades. It said the Bank takes responsibility for delivering that outcome.
The statement blamed a large, negative and persistent global supply shock, with the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war disrupting oil and food supplies. Our report on September inflation has the latest data.
The Bank said on Wednesday 23 September 2026 that food inflation was at its lowest since 2010. Services inflation, it added, stayed elevated.
The Target and the Timeline
The target is 3% with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point, the Bank says on its website. It was adopted in November 2025, replacing a range of 3% to 6%.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC, the panel that sets interest rates) said on 23 September that it expected inflation back around 3% towards the end of 2027. The governor’s 2028 remark is close to that but not identical.
The Bank’s September Forecast Report (its quarterly projections) shows headline inflation, year on year, at 4.0% for 2027 and 3.2% for 2028. It shows 3.1% in the last quarter of 2027 and 3.0% in the last quarter of 2028.
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Where Prices and Rates Stand
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA, the national statistics office) said on Wednesday 21 October 2026 that consumer price inflation was 4.5% year on year in September. That was up from 4.4% in August, which had followed 4.3% in July.
On 23 September the MPC voted unanimously to raise the policy rate (the repo rate, which sets the cost of bank borrowing) by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) to 7.25%. The prime lending rate rose to 10.75% from 25 September.
The Bank made a similar hike in May and held in July. It said headline inflation will likely be above 5% later this year and early next year before slowing as the fuel shock recedes.
Why It Matters
Higher prices squeeze household incomes, and the Bank’s statement said the global shocks are hurting the South African economy, which contracted 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026. On 23 September the Bank raised the repo rate to 7.25% while cutting its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.4%.
The Bank’s statement said that services inflation is elevated and that lowering it depends on getting inflation expectations lower. The Bureau for Economic Research (BER, a forecasting institute at Stellenbosch University) showed longer-run expectations near 4%, not 3%, in September, the statement said.
The Bank’s statement also said the US Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) raised rates the week before 23 September for the first time in three years. It added that global rates are rising, which US investors in South African assets can follow alongside our South Africa coverage.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform where users bet real money, runs a market called South Africa Annual Inflation 2026. It settles on Stats SA’s year-on-year consumer price inflation for the 12 months ending December 2026, with that release scheduled for 20 January 2027.
At 03:02 ET (08:02 UTC) on Saturday 14 November 2026, bets priced 4.7% to 5.0% at 41.7% and above 5.0% at 27.5%. They priced 4.4% to 4.7% at 22.1% and 4.1% to 4.4% at 2.0%, on trading volume of US$128,188 across all brackets.
These prices are bets, not polls. They are a snapshot and can move within minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We found no explanation of why the governor’s 2028 date differs from the end-2027 expectation in the Bank’s September statement. The 2028 timeline rests on two reports of his remarks, and we found no Bank document that repeats it.
What It Means for You
Borrowers in South Africa have paid a prime lending rate of 10.75% since 25 September. Readers can see how the country fits into Africa and the economy around Johannesburg in our explainers.
What to Watch
Stats SA is scheduled to publish October consumer prices on Wednesday 18 November 2026, according to its release schedule. The MPC announces its next rate decision on Thursday 19 November 2026, according to the Bank.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will South Africa’s inflation reach 3%?
Governor Kganyago has said in interviews in October and November 2026 that inflation reaches 3% in 2028. The Bank’s September statement expected it around 3% towards the end of 2027.
What is South Africa’s inflation target?
The target is 3% with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The Bank adopted it in November 2025, replacing a range of 3% to 6%.
What is South Africa’s repo rate?
The repo rate is 7.25% after a 25 basis point hike on 23 September 2026. The prime lending rate is 10.75%.
What do prediction markets expect for 2026 inflation?
On 14 November 2026, Polymarket bets gave 4.7% to 5.0% a 41.7% chance and above 5.0% a 27.5% chance. These are bets, not polls.
When is the next rate decision?
The MPC announces its next decision on Thursday 19 November 2026. Stats SA publishes October consumer prices the day before.
Sources
South African Reserve Bank, Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee, 23 September 2026 · SARB Forecast Report, September 2026 · Statistics South Africa, Consumer Price Index, 21 October 2026 · Governor Kganyago, interviews of 15 October and 13 November 2026 · Polymarket, South Africa Annual Inflation 2026, 14 November 2026 · The Rio Times analysis.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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