Serbia Ruling List Leads Early Count at 54%
Published Sunday, 25 October, 4:55 p.m. ET · Source: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK)
Key Facts
- Count: The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Serbia’s state election body, has counted 203 of 8,392 polling stations.
- United Serbia: 54.21%, the list led by President Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
- Student List: 36.85%, the ticket backed by the student-led anti-government protests.
- Turnout: 64.89% by 18:00 CET (1:00 p.m. ET), RIK’s last interim figure we could confirm.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, prices the Student List at 97% to win the most seats, 4:41 p.m. ET.
Serbia’s election commission reports that President Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list leads the first count with 54.21% of the vote. The Student List, backed by the student-led anti-government protests, has 36.85%.
The figures cover only 203 of 8,392 polling stations, about 2.4%, so they are an early snapshot rather than a result. Our earlier reports on election day, the ruling list’s favoured status and the split in the final polls explain what is at stake.
What the First Count Shows
RIK published the figures after polls closed at 20:00 CET, which is Central European Time (3:00 p.m. ET). The figures are partial counts, not the final result.
Only 2.4% of stations have been counted, so the shares can still shift as more results arrive. Early counts can come from places that vote differently from the nation as a whole.
Voters are choosing all 250 seats of the National Assembly, and a list needs 3% to enter parliament. The two lists above account for 91.06% of the votes counted so far, which leaves 8.94% for the other 16 lists.
Turnout Climbed Through the Day
RIK data show turnout of 19.72% at 10:00 CET, 34.55% at 12:00 and 46.53% at 14:00. It reached 56.38% at 16:00 and 64.89% at 18:00 CET (1:00 p.m. ET), out of about 6.45 million registered voters.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, traders priced the Student List at 97% to win the most seats in parliament at 4:41 p.m. ET on 25 October, after the first RIK figures. The market had traded US$8.86 million.
The price differs sharply from the early count, which covers only 2.4% of stations. Prices are last-traded bets, not polls, and they can move quickly as more stations report.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you follow European politics from the United States, this count is the first hard number on whether a long-dominant leader can hold off a youth-led protest movement. Serbia’s direction matters for the balance between its Western ties and its links to Russia and China.
If you plan to travel to Serbia, expect rallies in Belgrade while the count continues and check your government’s travel advice. See also our reports on the 6.45 million registered voters and the final pre-vote polls.
What Is Not Known
The winner and the final turnout are not confirmed, and the 203 stations may not represent the country. Seat totals cannot be projected from such a small share of the count.
RIK has not yet published a final result. We will update this report as it does.
Sources
Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (RIK) · Polymarket · The Rio Times Serbia election updates
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the first results of Serbia’s election?
With 203 of 8,392 polling stations counted, RIK reports United Serbia at 54.21% and the Student List at 36.85%. This is about 2.4% of stations, so it is not a result.
What is United Serbia?
United Serbia, formally Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia, is the list led by his Serbian Progressive Party. It is the main ruling-camp ticket in the 25 October election.
What is the Student List?
It is the ticket of the student-led protest movement that has challenged Vučić’s government. It is the main opposition list in the vote.
What was turnout in Serbia’s election?
RIK data show 64.89% of registered voters had cast ballots by 18:00 CET (1:00 p.m. ET). That is the last interim figure we could confirm.
When will the official result be known?
RIK has not yet published a final result after polls closed at 20:00 CET on 25 October. Seats in the 250-seat parliament go to lists that pass the 3% threshold.