Serbia’s Students Celebrate Win in Belgrade
Published Monday, 26 October, 3:12 p.m. ET · Source: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Ipsos and CeSID projections, Polymarket prediction market
Key Facts
- Scene: Thousands filled Belgrade’s Slavija Square from 2 p.m. ET, and a crowd gathered in Novi Sad.
- Count: Serbia’s election commission (RIK) has the student-led list at 52.73%, ex-president Aleksandar Vučić’s list at 39.15%.
- Not final: RIK’s tally lists votes, not seats; the final result and seat split are still to come.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, an online prediction market, gives Student List leader Ilija Srdanović 23.0% to be prime minister, ex-central banker Šoškić 37.2%.
Serbia voted on Sunday, and on Monday evening it partied. From 2 p.m. ET, thousands of people poured into Slavija Square, a big roundabout in central Belgrade, to celebrate the defeat of the party that has run the country for 14 years.
Flags, flares and fireworks lit up the roundabout, and traffic stopped. The rally was called for 7 p.m. in Belgrade, 2 p.m. ET, and it was announced to run until midnight.
Why it matters abroad: Serbia is a candidate to join the EU, buys Russian gas and has a free-trade deal with China, so a new government tests its ties with Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. Our earlier coverage: what happens next and the latest count.
What Did the Crowd Look Like?
People walked to Slavija singing and carrying Serbian flags, and some lit flares along the way. Chants rang out for “victory” and against Vučić, and whistles and vuvuzelas joined the music.
Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia’s long-time leader, resigned as president in September to run for prime minister. On Sunday night he conceded that his party had lost.
Why Did Tractors Roll Into Novi Sad?
In Novi Sad, Serbia’s second-largest city, farmers drove tractors decked with Serbian flags to the university campus. Students formed a guard of honour and greeted them with the three-finger salute of their movement.
The convoy then led a procession to the Banovina, the building that houses the government of Vojvodina, Serbia’s northern province. Several hundred people welcomed them at the campus, and a larger crowd gathered at the Banovina at 7 p.m. local time.
Novi Sad is where it all began. A collapsing railway-station roof there killed 16 people in November 2024 and set off a student-led protest movement that has now turned into a political list.
Where Does the Count Stand?
RIK, the Republic Electoral Commission, updated its tally at 2:05 p.m. ET. With 8,181 of 8,392 polling stations processed, the Student List has 52.73% and Vučić’s list, “United Serbia,” has 39.15%.
That is a lead of more than half a million votes. The Socialist Party, long a partner of Vučić, is below the 3% most lists need to enter parliament.
RIK’s preliminary results show the students ahead in most regions and cities, while Vučić’s list led in the south and east of Serbia. RIK’s tally lists votes, not seats, and a final result has not been declared.
Ipsos, a polling firm, and CeSID, the Center for Free Elections and Democracy, a Serbian election monitor, projected on Sunday night that the students would win about 140 of 250 seats. A majority needs 126.
Who Will Be Prime Minister?
Who becomes prime minister is still open. Ilija Srdanović, the cardiologist from Novi Sad who leads the Student List, is among the names traders favour.
What it means for you: a new government in Belgrade puts Serbia’s ties with Brussels, Moscow and Beijing back on the table. The first real signal will come when a prime minister is named and the new parliament meets.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, an online prediction market, prices Dejan Šoškić, an economist and former central bank governor, at 37.2% to be Serbia’s next prime minister and Srdanović at 23.0%, with US$3.34 million traded (read 3:10 p.m. ET, 26 October). Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator, lists different names at the top in a thin market of 37,463 contracts.
These prices are bets, not polls, and the two markets disagree.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Serbia’s election?
The Student List leads with 52.73% to 39.15% for Vučić’s list on RIK’s count of 97.5% of polling stations. RIK has not yet declared a final result.
Why are people celebrating in Belgrade?
Vučić conceded on Sunday night and the student-led list is far ahead in the count. Thousands gathered on Monday evening at Slavija Square and in Novi Sad.
Sources: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) results page, 26 October, 7:05 p.m. Belgrade time; Ipsos and CeSID projection, 25 October; Polymarket and Kalshi, read 26 October; rally organisers (Students in Blockade) and Novi Sad gatherings, 26 October evening.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief