The Poverty Rate in Argentina Is Creeping Up Again, Private Data Show
ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What happened A university study says poverty in Argentina stopped falling and edged up in early 2026.
- —How big The Catholic University of Argentina puts first-quarter 2026 poverty at 30 percent, up 3.1 points in two quarters.
- —What it means The fall that ran through 2025 has stalled, but the rise so far is small.
- —The catch These are private estimates. INDEC has not published an official figure for 2026 yet.
- —Who it hits Families with children, informal workers and households in Concordia, Gran Resistencia and the Buenos Aires suburbs.
- —What comes next INDEC publishes the official first-half 2026 poverty report on 24 September 2026.
The poverty rate in Argentina rose slightly in early 2026, according to a university study built on official data. The official half-year figure lands on 24 September.
The poverty rate in Argentina has stopped falling and started to creep back up. That reading comes from the Catholic University of Argentina, not from the official statistics office.
What INDEC actually measures
INDEC is Argentina’s national statistics office, and it publishes the official poverty numbers. It measures poverty twice a year, not every quarter.
The survey covers 31 large urban areas. Rural areas and small towns sit outside the count.
A household counts as poor when its income cannot cover a basic basket of food and other essentials. Indigence means income cannot even cover food.
The last official release put poverty at 28.2 percent for the second half of 2025. That was about 8.5 million people in those urban areas.
Indigence stood at 6.3 percent, or about 1.9 million people. Poverty had not been that low since 2018.
What the new estimate shows
The Catholic University of Argentina, or UCA, runs an observatory that rebuilds poverty figures from INDEC survey data. It publishes quarterly, which INDEC does not.
On 4 August the UCA put poverty at 30 percent for the first quarter of 2026. Indigence came in at 6.5 percent.
That is 0.1 points above the last quarter of 2025. It is 3.1 points above the low the UCA measured in the third quarter of 2025.
Measured against a year earlier, though, poverty is still 1.4 points lower. The UCA calls this the end of the falling phase.
It sees stagnation now, with early signs of reversal.
Other private teams read the same survey files and land close by. The consultancy ExQuanti put the first quarter at 30.7 percent, against 29.9 percent in late 2025.
Leopoldo Tornarolli, a researcher at the National University of La Plata, came out at 30.1 percent. La Nacion said the private numbers point to roughly 600,000 more poor people.
All of these are estimates, not head counts. Each team uses its own method.
Why this would not be the first rise
President Javier Milei took office on 10 December 2023. Poverty then rose once on his watch, and by much more.
INDEC put it at 52.9 percent in the first half of 2024. The comparable figure for the second half of 2023 was 41.7 percent.
So that was a jump of more than 11 points. The rate then fell to 38.1 percent, to 31.6 percent, and to 28.2 percent.
Those three readings cover the second half of 2024 and both halves of 2025. La Nacion notes the private series had already ticked up in late 2025.
Any rise now would be the second under Milei, not the first. It would also be far smaller than the first one.
Why the UCA thinks it turned
The UCA points to household incomes that stopped keeping up. Bills for power, gas, water and transport now take a bigger share of the budget.
It also blames more informal work and weaker job quality. Underemployment rose over the same period.
Pensions and family benefits are adjusted with a two-month lag. That means they trail prices when inflation moves.
Total nominal incomes did rise 35.6 percent over the year, faster than the basic baskets. But higher-earning households gained more than poorer ones.
What the government says
Economy Minister Luis Caputo credits growth, falling inflation and direct social transfers. The government says those forces drove poverty down through 2025.
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, said poverty fell markedly over two years. It named lower inflation, higher real incomes and bigger transfers.
The IMF also said the largest gains went to families with children and informal workers. Those same households are the most exposed if incomes stall.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack repeated that line on 10 September. She said Argentina had cut inflation, resumed growth and reduced poverty.
No official rebuttal of the UCA study has been reported. The official INDEC series is due to be updated on 24 September.
Where poverty is worst
The UCA figures show wide gaps between cities. Concordia was highest at 52.5 percent, followed by Gran Resistencia at 49.7 percent.
Posadas came in at 42.6 percent and Gran Santa Fe at 39.7 percent. Buenos Aires city was lowest at 8.4 percent.
The suburbs ringing Buenos Aires, home to millions, stood at 34.3 percent. That one number moves the national average more than any other.
Work is not always a way out. The UCA found 20.6 percent of workers living below the poverty line.
What comes next
INDEC publishes the official first-half 2026 poverty report on 24 September 2026. Its own release calendar carries that date.
That figure covers January to June, so it will not match the UCA quarter exactly. Treat the private numbers as a signal, not a verdict.
One half-year reading will not settle the trend either. Poverty in Argentina has swung by more than 20 points in two years.
The peso traded at 1,509.9 to the US dollar on 14 September 2026. A weaker peso lifts the price of imported food and fuel in the basket.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Argentina’s poverty rate right now?
The last official figure is 28.2 percent for the second half of 2025. The Catholic University of Argentina estimates 30 percent for early 2026.
When will INDEC publish the new poverty figures?
INDEC is due to release the official first-half 2026 poverty report on 24 September 2026. That date sits on its own calendar.
Is this the first rise in poverty under Milei?
No. Poverty jumped to 52.9 percent in the first half of 2024, then fell back to 28.2 percent by late 2025.
What does INDEC measure?
INDEC measures poverty twice a year across 31 large urban areas. A household is poor when its income cannot cover a basic basket.
Sources: Reporting from the UCA social debt observatory, INDEC, TN, La Nacion, Infobae and the Buenos Aires Times. https://tn.com.ar/economia/2026/08/04/para-la-uca-la-pobreza-fue-del-30-en-el-primer-trimestre-de-2026-y-la-indigencia-bajo-a-65/ https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/la-pobreza-aumento-en-el-primer-trimestre-y-hay-unos-600000-nuevos-pobres-nid03082026/ https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/eph_pobreza_03_269225CA3217.pdf https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/sharp-drop-in-argentinas-poverty-rate-delivers-boost-for-milei.phtml https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/cuadros/publicaciones/calendario_2sem2026.pdf https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/09/10/pese-a-las-dudas-sobre-la-actividad-economica-el-fmi-respalda-los-resultados-del-programa-argentino-cuando-sera-la-proxima-mision/
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