Argentina Risk Gauge Jumps 3%, Stocks Fall | Argentina Market Report, Nov 3
Key Facts
- Argentina’s country risk, the extra yield investors demand on its dollar bonds, rose to about 829 points on 3 November, up 3% from 805 and the highest in a year.
- The Merval, Buenos Aires’ main share index, fell by roughly 2.4% to 3.2% in pesos, depending on the outlet’s tally, while Wall Street’s S&P 500 gained 0.36%.
- The peso weakened to 1,550 per US dollar, up 0.34% for the dollar on the day and 14.4% above its April low of 1,355.
- Traders cited doubts over 2027 debt payments, thin central bank dollar buying and US midterm election uncertainty.
Today’s Focus
Argentine assets had another bad day on Tuesday 3 November, and the country’s fear gauge climbed to its highest level in about a year. Country risk, the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US government bonds, rose to about 829 points from 805.
The Merval, the index of Buenos Aires’ biggest listed companies, fell by roughly 2.4% to 3.2% in pesos, depending on which Argentine outlet’s tally you read. Wall Street rose the same day, which suggests the sellers were looking at Buenos Aires.
Investors point to doubts over how Argentina will pay its dollar debts due in 2027, a central bank that has not bought dollars on most recent days, and caution before the United States midterm elections.
What matters today. Argentine bonds and shares are trading on whether Buenos Aires can convince lenders that it can refinance its 2027 debts, so country risk is the number to watch.
01 The session in one read
Tuesday was a hard day to own Argentine assets. The Merval closed lower, and Argentine companies listed in New York were mixed: Cresud and the bank Supervielle fell, while the oil company YPF rose in New York.
Sovereign dollar bonds fell as well, and that pushed country risk up to about 829 points. The measure has roughly doubled since early July, when it stood near 400 points.
The peso also lost ground. The wholesale dollar closed at 1,550 pesos in RT’s market data, up 0.34% on the day.
The evidence points mainly to doubt about how Argentina will finance its 2027 dollar maturities and about the central bank’s reserve purchases. Country risk moved by more than a plain risk-off day would explain.
Our confidence is medium because Argentine outlets reported different sizes for the Merval’s fall during the day. The variable to watch is country risk: a sustained level above 800 keeps pressure on shares and the peso.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval index | about 90,000 | −2.4% to −3.2% | Outlets differ on the size of the fall; we show the range |
| Session range | — | — | Not confirmed |
| USD/ARS (pesos per US dollar, wholesale) | 1,550 | +0.34% | Dollar at its highest close in 12 months |
| 52-week range, USD/ARS | 1,355 to 1,550 | — | The peso sits at the weak end of its year |
| Country risk | about 829 | +3% | From 805 on Monday; highest in about a year |
| Key technical level | 1,550 per dollar | — | A clean break would open the way to a new high |
Read the table as a story about pressure, not a price list. The rate of 1,550 pesos is the 12-month high for the dollar and 14.4% above the April low of 1,355.
Argentina has several dollar rates. The official wholesale rate and the parallel routes, such as the MEP and CCL (legal ways to buy dollars through shares or bonds), can sit apart.
A wide gap tells you that people holding dollars abroad still demand a premium. It is a quiet sign of mistrust. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
+12.65%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,537
-0.28%
+3.77%
1,541
1,541
1,537
—
YPF
8,140
-1.45%
+67.04%
8,260
8,400
8,130
1,057,856
GGAL
5,825
-2.27%
-17.84%
5,960
6,090
5,820
1,091,278
PAMPA
5,035
-2.04%
+11.33%
5,140
5,225
5,025
226,261
TXAR
761.00
-3.00%
+29.77%
784.50
798.50
757.00
1,172,882
ALUAR
855.00
-1.50%
+5.30%
868.00
910.00
854.00
265,896
TGS
8,400
-4.00%
-6.25%
8,750
8,920
8,400
71,435
CEPU
1,920
-1.39%
-1.35%
1,947
1,999
1,909
165,948
MIRGOR
1,775
-0.56%
-90.15%
1,785
1,805
1,735
6,214
COME
35.15
-1.90%
-14.82%
35.83
35.90
35.01
2,274,189
LOMA NEGRA
3,085
-2.14%
+2.32%
3,153
3,200
3,085
110,621
BYMA
237.00
-1.46%
+5.80%
240.50
246.00
236.50
687,747
TELECOM ARG
3,870
-3.31%
+22.00%
4,003
4,108
3,870
11,330
GLOBANT
42.42
-5.73%
-31.91%
45.00
45.00
42.35
257,828
MERCADOLIBRE
1,700
+1.89%
-26.07%
1,669
1,728
1,672
504,596
03 Why it moved — doubts over 2027 debt and a nervous world
First and heaviest, with medium confidence: refinancing doubts. Investors ask how Argentina will pay its dollar debts due in 2027, and country risk that has doubled since July is that question made visible.
Second, medium confidence: reserves. Argentina’s central bank, the BCRA, bought about US$1.4 billion in October, but Argentine press reports it made no net purchases on four of the last six trading days.
Third, lower confidence: the global mood. Investors were cautious before the US midterm elections, which can raise risk aversion toward emerging markets.
Wall Street itself closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.36%, so the global mood alone does not account for the size of Argentina’s fall.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,569 | +0.36% | Wall Street rose, so the fall was not global |
| Country risk | about 829 | +3% | Argentine dollar bonds fell |
| Argentine shares in New York | — | Mixed | Cresud and Supervielle fell; YPF rose |
The pattern matters more than any single price. Farmland, banks and oil are all bets on the Milei reform story, so the market is watching all of them closely.
We hold no verified session figures for individual Buenos Aires shares, so we do not rank companies here.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −1.42% |
| IPC | Mexico | +0.52% |
| IPSA | Chile | −0.09% |
| Merval | Argentina | −2.4% to −3.2% |
Latin America split. Mexico rose, Chile was flat, and Brazil and Argentina fell, with Argentina falling hardest.
For a Brazilian or Mexican investor holding Argentine exposure, the lesson is currency risk and credit risk together. For travellers, a weaker peso makes Argentina cheaper in dollars, although prices there tend to rise.
06 The technical picture
The line to watch is 1,550 pesos per dollar, the 12-month high for the currency, with 1,355 from April as the far-off floor. Country risk at 800 is the round-number alarm bell.
A sharp fall in the Merval can bounce, but a lasting recovery needs country risk to stop climbing. History is not a forecast.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A close back below 800 would signal calmer nerves; a push higher keeps borrowing costs painful.
- Central bank reserves: Watch whether the BCRA resumes buying dollars, published in its own daily data at bcra.gob.ar.
- The 1,550 line: The peso is at the weak end of its year; a break higher would raise import prices.
- US election aftermath: Results and market reaction in the United States on 4 November will set the mood for emerging markets.
Background: Argentina’s YPF Falls 6.9% as Shares Slide.
Background: Argentina Stocks Fall as Risk Gauge Jumps.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Argentina’s stock market fall on 3 November?
Mainly doubts over refinancing 2027 debt and thin central bank dollar buying, plus caution before US midterm elections. Wall Street rose, so the cause was largely local.
What is country risk?
It is the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds over US bonds. It rose to about 829 points from 805, the highest in about a year.
What is the Merval?
The Merval is the main index of Buenos Aires-listed shares, including YPF, Grupo Galicia, Banco Macro and Pampa.
Is the peso at a record low?
RT data show USD/ARS at 1,550, its 12-month high. That is the weakest peso of the past year, not an all-time record.
Market data: The Rio Times; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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