Petrobras Reviews Projects After Brent Falls from $80 to $62

Officials from Petrobras said during a speech in Houston that plunging crude prices may force project reviews to maintain profitability.

Brent crude dropped from about $80 to near $60 per barrel, trading around $62 currently.

This price sits roughly $20 below the $83 assumption Petrobras used in its 2025–2029 Business Plan.

Every $10 move in oil price alters the company’s operational cash flow by about $5 billion. Consequently, a $20 shortfall implies nearly $10 billion in potential impact on cash flow.

Petrobras’s exploration and production director described the drop as volatile. He insisted no project will halt since they remain long-term endeavours.

The company relies heavily on pre-salt fields, known for lower breakeven costs and higher-quality oil, bolstering resilience amid price swings.

Petrobras’s estimated lift cost in pre-salt sits near $5 per barrel, among the lowest globally.

Futures markets now price Brent around $65 per barrel later this year, suggesting partial recovery beyond current levels.

OPEC+ signalled plans to raise output in June, and statements from U.S. officials reinforced downward pressure on global prices.

Lower world GDP forecasts, now near 2.6 percent for 2025, and cooling demand in China, the top oil consumer, further strain price outlooks.

Petrobras Reviews Projects After Brent Falls from $80 to $62

In early May, Petrobras cut its average diesel sale price to distributors by 4.7 percent, to R$ 3.27 per liter. The move revived import arbitrage and eased consumer-price pressures.

Petrobras cut its 2025 investment plan from about $21 billion to near $17 billion under recent guidance.

The government pressures Petrobras to raise capital spending to support local jobs and economic growth.

Investments now focus on high-return assets and efficiency projects to boost near-term cash generation.

Analysts expect Petrobras to renegotiate service contracts with suppliers, seeking simpler, lower-cost designs to preserve margins.

They also project the company’s 2025 capital expenditure will range between $13 billion and $16 billion, with one forecast near $14.8 billion.

Analysts at Ativa Investments forecast that if prices hold near $62, the company will delay less profitable ventures.

During the worst of the 2020 crash, when Brent briefly hit $20 per barrel, Petrobras hibernated 62 offshore platforms.

That experience guides Petrobras’s current resilience and informs its cost-reduction measures.

With global growth slowing and supply set to rise, the company prepares to adjust its portfolio and investments to uphold financial stability.

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