Peso Steadies As U.S. Backstop Compresses FX Gaps; Buenos Aires Stocks Extend Rebound

Argentina’s peso opened Tuesday steadier after Monday’s sharp relief move. The official Banco Nación rate hovered near 1,375 per dollar while the blue market traded around 1,405, leaving an unusually tight gap.

Financial dollars were clustered as well (MEP near 1,410; CCL around 1,440). The global dollar backdrop is benign: the Dollar Index sits just below 99, soft versus recent highs.

The calm follows Washington’s announcement of direct peso purchases alongside a $20 billion swap framework with Argentina’s central bank—support that sparked a rally across local risk assets and compressed FX spreads.

The policy signal, plus talk of maintaining a banded FX regime, helped unwind defensive positioning built up after September’s political shock.

Equities extended the rebound: the S&P Merval rose 1.73% Monday to roughly 1.96 million points. Flows into Argentina proxies abroad improved, and ADRs led gains, but leadership on the local board was broad-based with energy and utilities out front.

Top 5 Winners (local board, Monday)

• Edenor +9.34%
• Metrogas +8.01%
• Banco de Valores +7.43%
• Transener +6.35%
• Supervielle +5.74%

Top 5 Losers (local board, Monday)

• Aluar −3.55%
• Ternium Argentina −2.88%
• Cresud −2.31%
• BYMA −1.25%
• Loma Negra −0.83%

Technical picture: USD/ARS daily momentum has slipped negative with RSI mid-50s, and the 4-hour chart shows a clean break below short-term averages—suggesting a corrective drift toward 1,340/1,308 unless 1,378–1,385 is reclaimed.

For equities, the Merval’s 4-hour RSI is stretched near 70 after a brisk upswing, arguing for near-term consolidation; the daily setup is improving, with a break above ~1.96m strengthening a push into heavy resistance near 2.03–2.22m.

What it means: The near-parity between the official and blue rates reflects extraordinary support and fading panic rather than a settled equilibrium.

If program details are credible and financed beyond October’s vote, today’s compression can hold; if not, a firmer global dollar or renewed local risk could re-widen gaps quickly.

For now, Argentina starts the day with a steadier FX tape and constructive, if overbought, equities—conditions that put the burden of proof on policymakers to keep confidence intact.