Colombia’s Peso Steadies As Dollar Eases, Oil Bounce Lifts Risk Mood

Colombia’s peso hovered around 3,920 per dollar early Tuesday, roughly in line with the official TRM of 3,913.

The backdrop is straightforward: the U.S. Dollar Index slipped into the low-99s overnight and crude prices recovered modestly, giving commodity-linked markets like Colombia a little breathing room.

Stocks reflect that tone. The COLCAP last closed at 1,869.78, and the read-through from U.S. trading was constructive: Ecopetrol’s New York–listed shares climbed about 3.5% on Monday, a positive signal for local energy names into today’s Bogotá session.

The rest of the board looked more mixed, with rate-sensitive utilities lagging as investors weigh how long domestic borrowing costs will stay high.

The simple “why” starts abroad. Investors spent Monday toggling between worries about U.S.–China trade frictions and hopes for calmer rhetoric.

By the Asia–Europe handoff, the dollar had lost momentum and oil had firmed, easing pressure on most emerging-market currencies. For the peso, what the dollar and Brent do still matters more than anything else intraday.

The story behind the story is local and slower moving. Colombia’s central bank holds its policy rate at 9.25% while inflation, at 5.18% year over year in September, is easing but still above target.

That mix preserves the peso’s carry appeal but argues for caution on rapid rate cuts. On the fiscal side, a record-sized TES swap recently helped smooth near-term government cash flows and the yield curve.

Externally, a narrower current-account gap and steady remittances have reduced some vulnerability versus early 2025—helpful supports when global risk appetite turns choppy.

Technically, USD/COP looks biased to a short-term bounce on four-hour charts but remains range-bound on the daily—roughly 3,830 to 4,000.

In practice, that means the pair will likely track the day’s dollar and oil headlines: a sub-99.5 Dollar Index and steady crude should keep the peso anchored near the TRM; a renewed dollar pop or oil slip would push USD/COP back toward the high-3,900s.

For equities, energy and large financials have the clearer path if oil holds; a stronger dollar would cap that relief rally quickly.